Obama Camp Manager: Don't Read National Polls

LA Times:

David Plouffe, an architect of Barack Obama's surprise ascension to the pinnacle of the Democratic Party, did not look today like a fellow under duress because of the recent spate of national polls showing his candidate losing much of the advantage he's enjoyed over John McCain.

That's because, to hear him tell it (as he did at a press briefing), he all but ignores the surveys that tend to stir much interest among others.

"We don't pay attention to national polls," he said, referring to himself and the rest of the Obama team charged with winning the 270 electoral votes -- accrued through 51 separate contests in the states and the District of Columbia -- to win the White House.

Read the whole story: LA Times

Comments

[lovetheworld]

I agree with David Plouffe. Last year, Hillary had all these commanding leads in NATIONAL POLLS. But meanwhile, in the STATE POLLS of Iowa, Obama was rising like THE PHOENIX!!!

Indded, NATIONAL POLLS do give you a taste of the ebb and flow of the contest, but the STATE POLLS give you a true sense of what's happening in certain states.

So David is absolutely right.

[RealityRecall]

The daily polls do not bother me.

The thing that really has me looking is the Trend over the last two weeks. It is totally going in the wrong direction.

[AzRealProgressive]

You are right. No matter how you cut it. If Obama is to win, he needs to figure out how to reverse that. trend.

[lunchbag]

Plouffe may say that, but they are watching them like a hawk, plotting strategy on what issues makes the polls go up or down.

[AzRealProgressive]

Both parties are doing the same thing. That is why they spend millions of dollars on the people who do this stuff.

[iamamerican2]

Watch CSPAN DNC convention coverage cnn, msnbc and fox aren't covering it, all they're doing is
talking about how obama and bill and hillary are going to get along. They're like a dam tabloid and i refuse to watch from this point on.

[cdub1991]

Try taking a look at what Plouffe is seeing.

At the moment, with the exception of West Virginia (who cares) and I think Hew Hampshire (currently a toss-up), Obama is holding all of the states that Kerry took in 2004. He's leading in New Mexico, which has wanted to go dem for some time and will probably make it over the hump this time. Current wisdom is that of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, McCain has to take two of the three to have a decent shot. Obama is leading in Pennsylvania and Michigan and is starting to separate from McCain in both states. If McCain loses both, he has to run the table (right phrase?) of ALL THE OTHER BATTLEGROUND STATES to win. Both Ohio and Virginia are essentially tied. McCain loses EITHER of them--game over. If Obama can hold the current package together, he only has to put together about 10-12 electoral votes from the states of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota, Montana or Alaska to get to 270. (Too lazy to do the math in detail). He's trending well in both Colorado and New Hampshire. Given the current scenario, those two states would be enough WITHOUT OHIO OR VIRGINIA.

Obama has multiple paths to victory. McCain only really has one. Obama will win the same way he won the primaries--by breaking out his calculator and doing some math and not making soft assumptions based on national numbers.

[surfcitysteven]

I hope you are right. And I am waiting, here in New Mexico for the "McCain feels that Arizona is not getting it's fair share of water from New Mexico" ad. NM and CO will drop out of the tossup category for good if McCains thoughts on his plans for Western water compacts is put out in the light for all here to see.

[AzRealProgressive]

I live in AZ and that will not happen. Water compacts are off the table, except in Nevada. In NewMexico you have far less Colorado river water concerns, since you have no Az water coming to you. Your post is disingenuous at best.

[breakingpoint]

MAKE YOUR VOTE REALLY COUNT
VOTE THIRD PARTY

start preparing for 2012 NOW
Get Um With the Numbers!

[edwarvir]

What makes you think there will be a 2012 with Warmonger Johnny controlling
the red Phone? The man can't remember how many houses HE owns HE cna't
remember what country HE is in. HE laughs jokes and sings about
Bombing Iran, so again I ask with Johnny WarMonger at the Helms WHAT MAKES
YOU THINK THERE WILL BE A 2012.? I will take my chances with
a person who loves America and loves his wife and family. Senator BH Obama

The time for looking at A PERSONS COLOR HAS LONG SINCE PAST.

[AzRealProgressive]

If your last sentence is true, why are you making a big deal of it? You must have a problem with it to state it, and capitalize it. That suggests emphasis.

[surfcitysteven]

breakingpoint, you are wasting your time. Nader is an egomaniac. Any vote for a third party in first across the finish line winner take all zero sum game democracy such as ours is a vote that hurts the party more in touch with your issues. When you wasted your vote in 2000, did you really feel that Al Gore would be just as bad as Bush? Do you think we would be in Iraq now? Knowing how the Clinton administration was actually concerned and engaged on al qaeda, do you think we still would have gotten nailed on 9 11. Enough Nader talk. I will not support third parties. I am pragmatic and my pragmatism tells me that it is imperative that we not let a republican back into the white house. A third party that thinks as I do just as the dem party does, delutes my power. Not only does that third party delute it, it destroys it.

[AzRealProgressive]

Teddy Roosevelt won the presidency on a third party. Why not?

[Mitchell4A]

National head to head polls are notoriously bad predictors before the conventions. Plouffe knows what he is talking about.

"Media Hype and Election Polls (or the Sky is falling)"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/2008/07/25/media-hype-and-election-polls/

[Faith1101]

I think that's a FABULOUS idea. Ignore reality. It's gotten you this far, hasn't it? And promote avoiding reality for Obama's followers, also. Isn't that what they do in cults?

It's really gotten hillarious over here. And, yes, I spelled it like that on purpose.

PUMA

[edwarvir]

I feel so sorry for you puma people. I am going to ignore the polls because
I know Senator Obama is going to be our next president. There is no way he
his going to lose.


OBAMA/WEXLER 09

[AzRealProgressive]

ANd what happens if he does? Will you seek an honorable death like a good Samurai warrior would? And wlll you put it on Youtube?

[awcbuddy8]

Is it because you're losing?

[ProudLiberalDan]

Ignoring the national polls? What, you want an electoral vote victory and a popular vote loss like Bush?

Maybe we should pay attention to them. This "new politics" brand has a ceiling. What worked for the primary isn't working now. It's time to retool for the general with a better strategy.

[Trinidad707]

Also don't pay any attention to the fact that Joew Biden voted for authorizing the war ...back in 2002...just as Hillary did......and please don't pay any attention to the fact that Joe Biden's son has been a lobbyist since 2001..............so much for change!

[Trinidad707]

No only read them when they are in your favor...which Obama is losing big time!

[BEHM777]

Ignore the national polls?

Done

The Electoral College (state-by-state) is what matters, just like the number of delegates won during the primary season determined the nominee. If the race for POTUS was decided by the popular vote, there still wouldn't be any need to worry at this point.

BEHusseinM777

[AzRealProgressive]

The national polls indicate the electoral college results. Maybe you should have figured that fact in.

[JulianJons]

The link to continue this article is wrong. Can someone at Huff fix this?

[Faith1101]

I like it better like this. Less idiocy.

[Barryson]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/08/david-plouffe-k.html

[edwarvir]

thanks

[GuyFawkes]

I don't understand the msm sometimes. Today, while watching Tom Brokaw, he read a NBC/WSJ poll that O was losing independents by 4 points. Then, literally, 20 minutes later, they ran a scroll that said NBC NEWS/WSJ poll has O leading independents.

WHAAA?

[rosal]

Sometimes the memos from Big Oil, Pharma, Halliburton, etc. crossed each other, hence the contradictions.