Prediction Market Starts Betting On Chance That Palin Will Withdraw From Ticket

***UPDATE***
As of 10:07pm Tuesday, traders on the Intrade prediction market are selling the chance that Palin will drop off John McCain's ticket at 15.0. Check here for more updates as the market moves.

***UPDATE***
As of 5:29pm Tuesday, traders on the Intrade prediction market are selling the chance that Palin will drop off John McCain's ticket at 11.6. Check here for more updates as the market moves.

***UPDATE***
As of 1:45pm Tuesday, traders on the Intrade prediction market are selling the chance that Palin will drop off John McCain's ticket at 13.9. Check here for more updates as the market moves.

---
The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether "Sarah Palin [is] to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election." At 8:55 am, Tuesday morning, the market is selling the prediction at 18 a share. That means traders think there is an 18 percent chance that Palin will be removed from the ticket.

Intrade predicted Joe Biden would be Barack Obama's running mate in August and its traders were also correct about every Senate race in 2006. It fell flat in predicting a Democratic majority.

Keep checking back through out the day for updates on the trading numbers.

Click here for Sarah Palin's trading chart.

Comments

[PutinIsDaMan]

McCain is NOT a war hero, unless you consider napalming women and kids that were never a threat to the USA as being heroic.

[Sseb]

Don't forget the 134 sailors he incinerated on the USS Forrestal.

[JTRON]

McCain didn't incinerate anyone on the Forrestal. His A-4 was hit by a missile launched by hot exhaust gas from another aircraft on deck. This all happened as about 30 aircraft were getting ready to launch. McCain barley escaped. He was injured during this tragedy.

[CaptainVideo]

No matter how much damage Palin will do to McCain in attracting voters in the center who will decide the election, McCain will not be able to get rid of her because the party's right wing base loves her because she is one of them, a hard-line right wing ideologue. He would totally alienate them if she was forced off the ticket.

[JohnFObama]

That's why i'm picturing a scenario where Palin quits and says noone asked her to go, she still suppots mccain but is doing it for her family blah blah blah. Then mccain will have political capital to choose someone he wanted to all along, Lieberman. And he can argue that Joe has been vetted because he's well known and already was a vice presidential candidate.

[BLinCincinnati]

1) She would never resign. She's more power hungry than McCain.

2) If she did quit and before the election, the RNC would have to approve of his new pick. They wouldn't accept Lieberman.

3) If she did quit but after the election...They have to be confirmed by a majority of the Senate and House. Considering the Dems hold a wide majority in the house and likely to hold a 10 seat majority in the Senate this fall... he will not get who he wants. He'll get who the Dems let him have. If this non-starter of an idea actually happened he'd be pretty much forced to have a Dem put in as his VP, someone like Biden who he's friends with but would be supported by the Dems. He'd never get his choices. They'd simply deny any of his picks. They'd never approve of a Republican who could run as a sitting VP in 2012.

[JustABriefThought]

I think that Sarah Palin simply a “placeholder”. Did McCain choose her to satisfy the Pro-lifers, gun-totin’ women and wingnut conservatives simply for their votes? Her daughter’s pregnancy is not worth talking about – it’s private – but it sure keeps people all fired up and NOT focused on Same Old Republican ideas or Palin’s lack of experience, so that’s working out pretty well. It turns what should be an educational discussion of election issues into a 24/7 rabid tabloid spectacle (fanned by Republicans to keep off issue). If miraculously elected, will she quickly resign and allow McCain to select the Vice President he actually wants (see 25th Amendment). His actual choice for VP would not WIN the election if on the ticket NOW. If McCain/Palin wins, hopefully, McCain doesn't croak or become disabled while Palin is still VP.

[BLinCincinnati]

1) She would never resign. She's more power hungry than McCain.

2) McCain doesn't just pick whoever he wants. They have to be confirmed by a majority of the Senate and House. Considering the Dems hold a wide majority in the house and likely to hold a 10 seat majority in the Senate this fall... he will not get who he wants. He'll get who the Dems let him have. If this non-starter of an idea actually happened he'd be pretty much forced to have a Dem put in as his VP, someone like Biden who he's friends with but would be supported by the Dems. He'd never get his choices. They'd simply deny any of his picks. They'd never approve of a Republican who could run as a sitting VP in 2012.

[kvass]

No no no she is not going to quit - there is too much ego and too much ambition to let any thing like a family matter get in the way.

[MacFli]

If McCain wins we'll have two first ladies.

[BLinCincinnati]

A trophy VP and Atrophy Wife?

[Phineus]

Seriously this is nothing compared to what we got on the Clinton admin you guys have to try much harder..

[FatherWolf]

I'll be more impressed when the selling number reaches or exceeds 50.

I don't know which would be better -- for her to stay or to drop out.

If she leaves the ticket and a more-qualified candidate joins, the Repubs probably have a higher chance of winning in November.

If she stays and they somehow win, she'll be an active hard-right Bible thumping propogandist with a prominent bully pulpit. And she could very well end up taking over as president. That'd be the end of America as we know it.

Overall, it seems safer for America and the world if she drops out.

[Oldtt]

We have survived 8 years of that so far, but a solidly Dem congress would help a lot.

[nursekathy]

Barely survived. And none of the neo-cons were actually rabid anti-abortionist, Pentocostals (see the church scene from "Borat"). This lady is. Long time past, I was involved in that scary scene. Believe me, these people will not rest until America is right with God again - that means making abortion illegal again.

[MBLADY]

To all you pro- Palin people: Can't take the truth ???

[Phineus]

This entire site is pretty much dedicated to trashing Palin and this is all you can come up with ?

[boogygran]

No one is begging you or any of the other trolls to hang around and be miserable.

[donbrown]

Who wants to bet they're drafting a speech that has Sarah Palin using tomorrow's speech in front of her legions of right-wing fans to WITHDRAW due to the pressures on her FAMILY from the big bad MEDIA, firing up the hordes to defeat the DEMOCRATS...and at the same time getting rid of their problem with her?

Scary in its simplicity...but they major in SIMPLE.

[Ndw]

They have someone writing it, she's practicing - she won't withdraw, because they think she's great. I think they're crazy.

[MacFli]

I'll put money on that

[videlicet]

Ms. Huffington,

I don't know if you read all these posts, but I'll start by saying I am a fan of your site, for being at the forefront of breaking news in new media. However, tonight I have become troubled by the huge disparity between the information on your site and that of, say, Townhall and other conservative blog sites that I have begun to snoop through, to see how they are covering the Palin hurricane.

The difference is very telling.

These stories are huge, yet they have not reached very far. And this is problematic, because the two very different narratives of Sarah Palin that have begun to form must collide at some point, whether Palin drops out or not. We will not hear the end of it soon, if things are not set straight, quickly.

My humble suggestion is a call to action. GOTF: Get out the facts. We've heard enough about Palin to carry us through the week, if not the next two months. But many people do not know -- for instance, that the details of the Daily Kos rumor were in fact first reported in the Alaskan news.

Our time now would be better spent informing our fellow bloggers, than laughing amongst ourselves.

[Obama4Life]

I agree. The truth about Palin needs to get out.

[VirgilStay]

Does anyone know if the following is true?

Forget trooper-gate for a moment, I think senator McCain will need to fire who ever vetted Governor Sarah Palin when details of the Lungdren affair become better known
In the beauty queens first stint as a public official. Mayor of the tiny Alaskan town of Wasilla, population some 8000 souls. Madam Mayor decided to use tax money to build a fancy expensive sports complex, but instead of being honest and buying the land for the complex when it was offered to the town on the cheap.

She waited till developer Gary Lundgren bought it, then had the gall to seize the land from Lundgren through eminent domain. Of course after it was taken to court the folks of Wasilla ended up paying about $ 1.7 million for land it could have purchased for less than a tenth of that sum - the poor folks of Wasilla are still paying the price for that little shenanigan in higher taxes and service cutbacks.

[Obama4Life]

Good lord, this woman makes tony rezko look like a saint.

Everyday I find out something new about her.

McStain messed up big time here.

[Ndw]

It's like he picked her specifically to counter every argument they had or made up about Obama - inexperience, local scandals, 'morality.' They even trumped his "Muslimness" with 'Secessionist Ties."

I think a Muslim - not an Islamic Fundamentalist, mind you - loves this country more than a person who wants to secede from it. Is there any doubt about that?

[Phineus]

The truth is she is the undead she can only come out at night and she drinks human blood..

[UrsaMajority]

Here's how local resident and gadlfy Anne Kilkenny describes the deal:

"The huge increases in tax revenues during her mayoral administration
weren’t enough to fund everything on her wish list though, borrowed
money was needed, too. She inherited a city with zero debt, but left it
with indebtedness of over $22 million. What did Mayor Palin encourage
the voters to borrow money for? Was it the infrastructure that she said
she supported? The sewage treatment plant that the city lacked? or a
new library? No. $1m for a park. $15m-plus for construction of a
multi-use sports complex which she rushed through to build on a piece
of property that the City didn’t even have clear title to, that was
still in litigation 7 yrs later--to the delight of the lawyers
involved! The sports complex itself is a nice addition to the
community but a huge money pit, not the profit-generator she claimed it
would be."

http://www.andrys.com/palin-kilkenny.htmll)

Do you know if Palin had any connection to Lundgren, or if instead she was just stupid?

[jsclms]

New Campaign Theme Song

Way up north, (North To Alaska.)
Way up north, (North To Alaska.)
North to Alaska,
They're goin' North, the spin is on.
North to Alaska,
They're goin' North, the spin is on.

Big John left Phoenix in this election year ,
With George Bush, his partner, and Cindy, his wife too.
They crossed the Yukon River and found Ms. Sarah Palin
Below that old white mountain just a little southeast of Nome.

John crossed the majestic mountains to the valleys far below.
He talked to his team of vetters as he mushed on through the snow.
With the northern lights a-running wild in the land of the midnight sun,
Yes, John McCain was an hasty man in this year of the election fun

Where the river is winding,
Big rights wing nuts they're finding.
North to Alaska,
They're goin' North, the spin is on.

[rivrgrrl]

LMAO

That's good!

(I love that song!)

[DAWK]

late night comics are going to pounce on this:
Mit Romney was the sensible-real-only viable choice and how mc cain chose palin, is a process that SNL might make,via a skit: the first scene shows mc cain with rove and the rest of his advisors,handing mc cain a 'dart' which he will attempts to throw at a board,with various VP-pics, possibilities.Mc cain,drooling -mumbling,whilst taking his daily 'pill' dosage for 'geezers', throws the dart,landing on palin.mc cain says 'oh goody-it's agirl!' ,and his aids wheel him away ,for the next 'world leader' decision,like ; just how will they win the election.
As for sara Palin,she deserves better: Her finest moment would be a press conference,announcing her 'resignation' and new up-close observations,via statments about mc cain's unstable mental health,since spending enough time with him to know mc cain will likley ...NOT make it through the campaign-alive!!
Palin could go back to alaska,with a huge 'free pass',via alaska politics and reign supreme, fireing some more state cops,shoot some wolves,for various petty reasons,and be the 'guv' for many more years to come.
SARA,'JUST SAY NO! " go back to alsaka and you win-big time,hence no one would ever allow you to be the 'president' ,since Nancy Pelosi would then move to impeach-you,if mc cain flamed-out,and you-know,she can impeach...any time she wants,you-know...like she did with bush, 'impeach or not impeach',Pelosi is getting really- good at this.

[hayislandpieter]

it's sick, i know, but nothing would make me laugh harder than if palin got blasted out of the race..

not for nothin but you liberal bloggers can be VICIOUS

i'm all in for obama, regardless of what the red bedfellows do...

[PrinceHal]

This isn't about liberal bloggers, it's about the Intrade prediction market.

[NU81]

If I thought McCain would be elected President, I would definitely want Palin to withdraw as VP due to her vast inexperience in foreign affairs, lack of any familiarity with Washington or even an interest in what's going on outside the U.S., just to name a few reasons! His choice of Palin as VP only underscores the fact that he "shoots from the hip" and has tremendously poor judgment. Word is his aides have to rein him in all the time from making hasty and poorly informed decisions.

Still, I find it surprising that anyone is betting on this. McCain is known for FLIP FLOPPING, but he most certainly is NOT going to admit to making a mistake in his VP choice. It would bve political suicide. Palin is not going to withdraw on her own because this is the best thing that ever happened to her---like beging promoted to CEO staight out of college with a Bachelor's degree?!

It will simply play out, she'll be fully vetted by the PRESS, and McCain willl lose the election.