Obama Camp Manager: Stop "Hyperventilating" Over National Polls

CBS News:

With John McCain's traveling press corps cooling their heels here as they waited for McCain to wrap up a fundraiser, Barack Obama's campaign knew a captive audience when they saw one. The Obama campaign extended an invitation for us to drop by Obama's campaign headquarters for a briefing by their campaign manager David Plouffe.

Sitting under a charcoal sketch of the Obama family that was donated by a supporter, Plouffe said that they weren't concerned by the bump in poll numbers that McCain has experienced after the Republican convention and the announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

"There's a lot of hyperventilating about national polls," Plouffe said, which wasn't a surprise since both a CBS News poll and the Gallup daily tracking poll showed McCain taking the lead nationally in the presidential race. "When you look at battleground states, we feel very good about where we are."

Read the whole story: CBS News

Comments

[criquet]

The good thing about the Gov Palin effect is that what would have happened on the day of the election is happening now and the Obama campaign has a chance to neutralize it as much as possible.
Let's not fool ourselves, whoever was the GOP VP nominee, at the end of the day the evangelicals would have come out in droves. They want to keep control.
Now at least the Obama camp has had its wake-up call.Hope it's heeded.

[transilvana]

this campaign has gone down to the gutter (see mcCain's new sex-ed ad). I predict in the next 24 to 48 hours people are going to get really tired of this bickering and will look up, hoping to see somebody who will lift them (from the gutter).That plays into the lizard brain mechanics as well. I hope to God that they'll see Obama up there, not McCain. But for that, he needs to place himself there. It's great that he fought back, but now he needs to lift himself again and show us who to follow. Be a leader. Be the guy who raises us above this crap. Call a massive rally, address the nation on TV in prime-time and say: ENOUGH. It's time to stop this nonsense and get back to what's really going on in this country. Let's reclaim the American Dream. Follow me!

Be the LEADER. Before the other guys seize this opportunity.

[justhope]

Dan I so in agree. I don't think Obama needs to get in the gutter. But let's not fool ourselves a lot of rural America vote based on those patterns they are accustomed to in politics. They are so incensed in an idea of dirty politics that they see Obama as weak for not hitting hitting back hard. PALIN LIED THAT OBAMA HAD NEVER WROTE ANY LEGISLATIONS: WRONG. I await some Obama surrogate and Obama himself to list his accomplishments and how they have or will help people Like his Hurricane Katrina Bills eg; THE NATURAL EMERGENCY FAMILY LOCATOR ACT which was recently used in Hurricane Gustav. Texans, Gulf Coast residents & Floridians can identify. These are Republican States. HURRICANE IKE IS COMING UP. They will also activate these bills. I watched Fox credit Gov Jindall for the lack of chaos in Gustav, not one Democrat gto on tv to speak of Obama's legislation GO TO SENATE.GOV SPREAD THE WORD. OR SEND ME A CONTACT!!!

[ProudLiberalDan]

How condescending. (The reason why Obama's campaign isn't connecting with the majority of American voters who vote emotionally, not intellectually.)

We're not "hyperventilating". We are smart enough to realize that what the Obama campaign is doing ins't working. What worked for the primary is NOT working in the general election. Please stop acting like it is May-June. It is September. Please wake up and smell the coffee and run an aggressive, hard-hitting, appeal-to-emotions based campaign. Save the "new politics" for governing. In case you haven't noticed, conservatives aren't interested in "new politics", so you may as well start standing up and fighting them.

[nomobull]

you are not supporting.

[NJ13]

The comment was not condescending. Just relax. What you see in the polls is just a convention bounce. They are both pretty much where they were before the conventions. The polls are only snapshots and this Palin effect will wear off.

I would be more concerned if the electorial count was close, but it's not and at the end of the day Barak needs 271 and he is already in the 220-240 range and McCain is in the 160-180 range.

[furryone]

THANK YOU DAVID!
I am VERY dissapointed in the chicken little Obama supporters who are running around like idiots screaming that the sky is falling because of some stupid polls that are most likely WRONG anyway (over sample the repugs much you gallup morons? ) has it ever occured to you that the polling companies WANT wild fluctuations because that way they remain relevant? they are as bad as the MSM that goes on a feeding frenzy whenever they smell a potential "scandal" that they then exploit for RATINGS....nothing but sharks

If this is all it takes to flumox you, then you need a hard slap and a big dose of reality....NEVER take anything for granted, but be steady and firm in your support.

There's a reason the Obama campaign has managed the most successful turn-around in primary election history, so dear chicken littles, take some Zoloft and CALM DOWN.....PLEASE.

thank you

[meshach]

Hahahahahahahaha -- chicken little -- that's a GOOD one! Thank you.

Seriously though
This panic brings to mind the exodus of the Israelites from Egypt to the promise land. Every time there appeared to be a stumbling block they lost faith -- where would we be if mccain's VP pick was actually qualified ??? Yet the children of Israel eventually made it to the promise land. Keep the faith.

Forget Clinton -- she will never be president -- how can she run the country when she can't even run her own household with a philandering husband.

[ScarletKnight1307]

you complain when the plane is going down not after it's down you make the best of it

the truth is the country is evenly divided and it will come down to the debates which i think it would have been better if Obama had done some of the town halls and while 10 was too many 2 wasn't enough if that had been done i think that would have been a net loser for McCain.

This ends tomorrow when they appear together and that will break Painful's news cycle

[TrueIndy08]

I agree.... the National polls don't mean much to me.... STATE POLLS are what matter!

And to the SM ART AS S the other night who said the states are part of the nation....national polls had GORE leading, popular NATIONAL vote had GORE as our winner.... BUT, since we elect our Presidents by the electoral college.... and we get electoral votes from the states....

ITS THE STATE POLLS STUPID!!!

[FaceYourFears]

I agree with Plouffe nothing is concrete with all the twist and turns that have taken place in this election year, nothing is final. Sit back and watch the pendulum swing!

[akkadian]

lies, more lies and it's all on videotape:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcJfahgxbSs

[biglover]

This should be a campaign ad for Obama!!

[DebbieinPhx]

keep posting this and then put out an ad showing the Palin lies and the McCain lies side by side.... the beat goes on and the GOP is a leopard that has NOT changed its spots

[Vantunow]

SUSA has Mc up +20 in North Carolina and that's OK.

This is exactly what I expected.

States like Georgia, North Carolina and Missouri, RED STATES, propbably got redder.

That doesn't change the overall equation much.

PA and MI got tighter too and that's a problem. However, this is coming from heal of Red Convention so its understanable.

In addition to that, HRC supporters are wobbly in Massachusettes and New Jersey. Those States were BLOW OUT wins for Gore and Kerry. However, in this cycle they keep acting like a Yo-Yo. It doesn't matter if those States get close - McP will NEVER get on the top in those states.

STILL THE MAIN BATTLE IS IN - MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, COLORADO, NEVADA AND NEW MEXICO.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are CRITICAL for O.

REMEMBER - in last two cycles, they did not vote overwhelmingly blue but they did go blue. So this tightening is expected. McP can't pull them out.

If you add Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico to O's EV totals with solid states included it comes down to 260EV.

Then you are 10 shy of the goal.

Nevada + New Hampshire = 9

Colorado by itself = 9

If its a 269-269 tie, Dem Congress would put O over the top. Which is what the scenario I expect.

If he can pull All 3, Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire, then we are home free.

Ofcourse OHIO is TEASING again. If they go blue, all else will be a

[antiparanoid]

Mythbusters should do an episode on undecided voters.

[RealityRecall]

I would also add the following.

Polls are not accurate because they only call landline phones.

All the newly registered young voters are going to show up.

[BuckarooBanzai]

Problem is, Mr. Plouffe, we heard exactly the same thing from the Kerry campaign at about this time with almost the same poll numbers. Look at how that turned out.

If you don't talk about Iraq, Torture, The shredding of our Consitution, the destruction of our republic ,the sinking of our economy, and John McCain's responsibility for all of the above, Obama is going to lose.

[Pepper14]

All these polls right now don't mean anything. Look at the poll the weekend before the election when all pollsters credibility will be on the line so they will be sure not to skew the numbers like they do now.
The elections in the end will come down to race. If voters feel comfortable putting a black man in the WH Obama will win if not McCain will win. Most people don't want to say this but I believe it to be the truth even if many are in denial.

[cdub1991]

Yes and no. I agree that race is the primary reason the campaign is as close as it is now. I also, believe, however, that we aren't looking at a Bradley effect. I think those who won't vote for a black man are already saying so in the polls (even if that's not the reason they are giving), therefore their numbers are already accounted for.

[dizmo4]

That is probably true, but they do not account for the cell phone problem. Young voters 18-34 don't have land lines so they are generally missed in polls.

While 18-24 may be unreliable, the 25-34 is much more reliable, and Obama is winning these voters by huge margins. In younger states like Virginia and Colorado this is huge. Probably less of an Issue in say Pennsylvania and Ohio, although it should be noted that The PSU system and The OSU are absolutely huge. When dealing with small margins, this could prove the difference.

Secondly, the poor voters are more than likely missed. They're the ones working 2nd and 3rd shift jobs.

On a whole I think Obama is probably doing BETTER than most polls indicate. How much better is an open question, could be 1 point could be 10, its really impossible to tell. But the point is that looking at polls and worrying over them today is really missing the point.

[Mycall]

There's no logical way anyone can discount the "Bradley Effect" as a possible cause. I recall early in the primaries a news station had done some interviews in rural area's and while many couldn't actually answer why they wouldn't choose Obama, all they knew was that they didn't want him in there. And those are the individuals that are being honest!!
I'm hoping that in the information age we find the opposite to be true. Individuals, particularly in rural area's, that publicly voice their support of McCain (you know, consistent with a mob mentality theme) but in private are deathly fearful of putting a 72 yr old cancer survivor in office with his Gun touting, Mouse hunting, beauty pageant contender waiting to fill the almost inevitable (sorry – just facts) void. Ofcourse, assuming you cared anything about the issues you would have already made up your mind.
Unlikely sure, overly optimistic, perhaps - but a guy can dream!!!

[abirato]

"All these polls right now don't mean anything. Look at the poll the weekend before the election when all pollsters credibility will be on the line so they will be sure not to skew the numbers like they do now. "

And here you are on another topic today:

"Obama is losing ground and has been for sometime now, you can be in denial on this but he should be in double digits. Most state polls I have seen where Obama only has a 2-3 point lead he will not win."

Do the polls mean anything or not?

[stephangio]

polls are a snapshot

[DebbieinPhx]

yeah with a myopicly limited field of view. They are not even wide angle and therefore miss the majority of the picture.

[Phil123]

Hey Barrack! ....Sarah's comin' to get you!

[DarkandStormyNight]

You should learn to spell his name correctly before insulting him.

[Chillinout]

That is the sign of a tr0ll. They don't know how to spell.

[Phil123]

That's called a "typo." I had had meant to type "Barack Sadaam Hussein Obama Bin Laden." There.

[RaraAvis17]

I know! Once you go Barack you never go back! Whooo HOOO!

[mooph]

Anyone remember what the polls looked like during the primary?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

It wasn't until February of this year that Obama pulled ahead on a consistent basis.

[toomuchpr]

I hope Plouffe used the words "Dead Cat Bounce" to describe McCain's gains in the polls. Any of you who play the stock market know what's coming next for McCain - dead cat bounce - the downward slope will be steep and painful as McCain dips down to max pain. Buy on rumor, sell on news... McCain hit his high watermark and his political speculation is used up as the news catches up to Palin.