POLITICS

Was Obama's 22-State Strategy A Mistake?

10/16/2008 05:12 am ET | Updated May 25, 2011

Some scattered thoughts on the ponderable above:

1. Thave been some particular resource allocation decisions made by the Obama campaign that I've been skeptical of from the get-go. The one that always stood out was Georgia, with the criticism stemming from Electoral Portfolio Theory 101. Namely: while it was possible to conceive of a world in which Georgia went blue, it probably wasn't going to turn blue before North Carolina, and it certainly wasn't going to turn blue before Virginia. Obama very probably will have won the election if he wins Virginia, and he'll certainly have won the election if he wins both Virginia and North Carolina. So the resources deployed to Georgia are arguably redundant; it was hard to think of Georgia as providing better than about Obama's 320th electoral vote, even under the best case scenario.

2. Arguably also, the Obama campaign was too eager to defend certain states, such as Maine and perhaps Washington.

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