Was Obama's 22-State Strategy A Mistake?

Some scattered thoughts on the ponderable above:

1. Thave been some particular resource allocation decisions made by the Obama campaign that I've been skeptical of from the get-go. The one that always stood out was Georgia, with the criticism stemming from Electoral Portfolio Theory 101. Namely: while it was possible to conceive of a world in which Georgia went blue, it probably wasn't going to turn blue before North Carolina, and it certainly wasn't going to turn blue before Virginia. Obama very probably will have won the election if he wins Virginia, and he'll certainly have won the election if he wins both Virginia and North Carolina. So the resources deployed to Georgia are arguably redundant; it was hard to think of Georgia as providing better than about Obama's 320th electoral vote, even under the best case scenario.

2. Arguably also, the Obama campaign was too eager to defend certain states, such as Maine and perhaps Washington.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[clearthinker2008]

I love these panic headlines, why is Huffpo trying to scare dems?

[sonoffestus]

I am an American and I approve this message! Love it!!

[PioneerKing]

Sen. Obama's strategy has always been one of party building as well.
If Sen. Obama does not win in Nov. he wants things on local, county, state and congressional levels to change as well.
Sen. Obama reconizes that if he does not have a ground swell then even a victory by him in Nov. will not be enough to make change - the change needs to be at all levels.
If Sen. Obama does not win then it will not mean that the Democratic Party will not have substantial victories down ballot that are vital to change.
Unlike McCain who has proven that he is willing to loose his integrity to win for Sen. Obama this battle has not been soley about an Obama presidency. It is about the American people at all levels of society and government.

[BigLib]

Siena New York Poll:

With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue

Obama"s Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in June

[V4Vigilance]

Yeah, that "battleground" strategy sure worked out well for the Democrats in '00 & '04.

Reminds me of the oft-quoted definition of 'crazy'; doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

[Charles1Goodwin]

I would not go so far as to say it was wasted. Remember there are still down ticket races and issues that are influenced by the presidential campaign. It also could have caused the republicans to spread their money and resources. I think it is hard to review actions until the race is over. Winning is the goal. If he wins it was all brillient, if he loses...... naw, that can't happen!

[Actionman]

Obama made a mistake...

From people that ALL thought he would be shut out in the start of the primaries. He should do this, he should do that, why does Obama not follow my advice... all the advice that have come and gone

ENOUGH!

[luckyinnc]

BarryO is a mistake, plain and simple.

[Cooper1608]

luckyinnc, tell McSame to come out from under McPalins skirt, CindyLou is not going to like that. Tell him the HIDE AND SEEK game is over with and he just got found out. Mmmmmm, he sure does stay under that skirt a lot, what the heck else is going on under there? hee hee hee

[Daps]

Trollin' trollin' trollin'

[Heavenhelpusall]

Nana Nana boo boo. That is your intellectual contribution plain and simple. Take a lunch break and feed your brain. Come back later with something of substance.,

[goredstates]

Something of substance is: in an enviroment in which a Democrate can't loose, Obama is loosing. Because Bush has failed in so many ways a Democrate should be able to walk into office. But you guys managed to pick the one Democrat who can loose, and the Republicans picked the one Republican who can win.

[foxbat]

Obama's done many things that, in the short-run to the non-observant, would appear as losses. It seems that he is looking much more forward than other candidates/leaders have in the past. McCain seems reactionary, recently changing to the "change" argument and just today stealing "enough" from Obama. Obama's much more strategic in his thinking. Everything that's appeared to be fraught with pitfalls, etc. seems to have eventually worked out for Obama. The trip overseas was supposed to be a disaster and went over without a major hitch. The primaries were supposed to have him trounced in Iowa and then dead by Super Tuesday. The convention was going to be a coup for the Clintons who were going to steal the nomination from him or at least split the party down the middle. The speech at Mile High Stadium was an overreach and would fail. His choice of VP would clearly show his lack of experience. He's emerged in each of these better off than anticipated. If this were McCain, they'd be claiming what a skilled politician he was ... for Obama, they say it's just luck. One of these might be just luck ... as many successes as he's had points to a level of thought beyond the average. Incidentally, my guess is that the grass roots movements in these currently red states may not be solely for 2008. Obama's a strategic thinker and the activities put him, but more importantly Democrats, way ahead for 2010 and beyond.

[santamonica39]

Hard to say if it was a mistake from the get go. But at this point, he needs to abandon states like Georgia, North Carolina, MO. Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia are the most important. Try to take Ohio if he can. And make damn sure he holds onto PA. Forget about Florida and spend the money elesewhere

[StephenDedalus82]

Obama make a mistake? But he is perfect!

Yes it's a mistake to waste money in states he will never win in a million years. He's a black liberal with a Muslim sounding name and as an Oklahoman I can tell you he could spend a billion dollars here and McCain will still walk away with a win. Do you think I like that? No, but eventually reality must set in.

He should have taken his haul and dumped it into states he can win and that he needs to win. Losing by slightly less in a state is still a loss.

[INDmind]

Will the 50 state/22 state strategy eventually become a 3 state strategy?

[cynicism101]

22 state campaign is likely to be more successful than the 57 state campaign he thought he was running earlier.

Still, with the windfall profits he's acquired, and his supposed capabilities to "unite" - one would expect he'd be more willing to focus on the entire country, not just pick and choose the ones he likes best.

[marinade]

There is no price you can put on keeping the Republicans guessing.

[Daps]

It keeps their local appearance turnouts low :)

[Tropiholic]

obama and his team have done and continue to do a brilliant job! i can't wait until he wins on election day, our national nightmare is almost over!