Bailout Failure Puts McCain At A Political Dead End

***Scroll down or link here for the Electoral Vote Predictor and map***

AP Reported this morning on the damage the failed bailout bill has done to John McCain's campaign:

Republican John McCain has maneuvered himself into a political dead end and has five weeks to find his way out.

Last Wednesday, McCain suspended his presidential campaign to insert himself into a $700 billion effort to rescue America's crumbling financial structure. In so doing, he tied himself far more tightly to the bill than did his Democratic opponent, Barack Obama.

See below for the "Real Time Electoral Vote Predictor" that shows how badly the recent economic news is affecting John McCain's campaign. Click here to link to the map and the electoral vote predictor.

Comments

[autish]

Let's not get too excited. A few weeks ago the polls were going the other way. McCain still has better than a 50/50 shot. Why?

Firstly, the states that decide the election have been in a dead heat over time and don't seem to be changing at all. In these states, Obama hasn't really been leading by much, and usually is within the margin of error.

Secondly, polls rely on people's expressed opinions, so tend to be biased towards politically correct views. Many people who say they will vote for Obama in polls, won't when push comes to shove, partially because he's black and so new. Factor a five point swing for such reporting error and McCain leads in almost every swing state.

Also, a lot of Obama's hopes are pinned on voter turnout. He needs young people and minorities to come out in much higher numbers than predicted. McCain can offset that with the Palin effect. And Palin now just needs to survive the VP debate to retain the enthusiasm she has generated, which shouldn't be too hard given the low expectations being set.

Finally, there is the GOP's "magic" factor. In a close election, election irregularities seen in Florida and Ohio are likely to swing the vote the GOP way.

All in all, if you want Obama to win, go out and vote. Vote in large numbers. Otherwise, notwithstanding APs prediction, be prepared for a MCain-Palin win.

[justsomeguywhocameby]

Magic? We need a blowout so any magic is nullified.

[IowaCali]

McCain is the poster boy for selling your s0ul.

[GrouchoMarxist]

Well, at least he had one to start with. Palin, on the other hand...

[BeyondGoodAndEvil]

Not from what I've read.

[NochlessMonster]

What soul?

[kellygrrrl]

I think he did have one at one time

[TiffanyHusseinBanned]

Why is Chris talking to The Hammer?

Why isn't The Hammer in prison?

[HypnoToad]

I am sure there have been delays until after the election. No pun intended.

[Rumplestiltskin]

Why isn't everyone you lefties disagree with in prison, or at least a re-education camp? Is just isn't fair.

[WLA]

Rumpledforeskin is a proud member of the Free Tom Delay movement. And he sends Jack Abramoff cookies daily.

[TiffanyHusseinBanned]

Wasn't he indicted, dummy?

[scandals&skeletons]

and how do you get computer time from your cell?
Does big "Bubba" like ya?

[SurferKit]

Oh come on, even you have to agree Delay needs to be sent away for a long time.

[kellygrrrl]

OT
Anchorage Daily News video

http://community.adn.com/mini_apps/vmix/player.php?ID=2221420&GID=118

[wendynyc]

Joe Scarborough just got an awakening on RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE - he did not know that this rescue plan has been developed by Barack Obama and his advisors and is an investment of the American taxpayer money to buy inexpensive securities and the Wall Street will guarantee the difference if the securities do not go up in value over a finite period of time.

Joe S and Erin Burnett were also surprised that all of Barack Obama's economic plan is already completely paid for - the campaign needs to broadcast that fact a whole lot more on Wall Street - too bad they are so completely in the tank for the Republicans on Wall Street and ultimately it is the Democrats bailing them out.

[HypnoToad]

JoeStalin2008 all of thirty minutes old. These trol)s are really desperate. Just like McDownInFlames.

[donaldw6]

I'm not sure that one's a tr0ll. I might be confusing names.

[HypnoToad]

It would be easy to do here. But I thin kall my traveling and being able to learn so many new names quickly, has helped me to recognize ones with which I am unfamiliar.

[Coinyer101]

lol! wasnt he a socialist?

[GrouchoMarxist]

He tried soooo hard with his little Commie act, too.

[RobertaInCT]

Desertligh­t.........­...done!

[Coinyer101]

wooohooo! been flagging that one over and over for weeks.

[suzyhein]

nonononoon. are you kidding. what the fuckis going on???? i better check to see if i'm still alive!!

[HypnoToad]

I wonder how that came about? Hmmmmm?

[gotalife]

So, they have no trust, no accountability, no credibility, injected 630 billion into the market, the market rebounds 485 points and they are still trying to get 700 billion more.

Talk about lipstick on a pig.

Good luck selling that pig leadership at election time.

[CheshireCat2]

On a positive note, the dollar has gained 18 cents on the Euro over the last couple months.

[WLA]

Oh goody. I guess I'll be summering on the Riviera again after all.

[exeye]

I'll be summering in the rusted-out Honda, ordering Japanese take-out.

[lukebenward]

A McCain/Palin admin.

Polluting the world w/ coal.

lol And at a rally, Palin chastised Biden for saying he wouldn't use dirty coal.

[coyote4]

Don't blame the house flippers and poor folk over-extending themselves and not considering what would happen when house values fell.

It is not even the mortgage lenders fault.

It is the fault of those that disguised poor quality debt and resold it as AAA paper. It is Wall Street fraud, and no heads are rolling, no arrests are made and no one is taking the blame.

[Coinyer101]

FBI is investigating and expecting results in possibly 6-8 months.

[GrouchoMarxist]

If the Bush appointees stay out of the way and let the career agents do their jobs, it might lead to something.

[WLA]

Yep. While the foreclosures on "main street" hurt the little people, the real crisis exists only with huge Wall Street criminals that bundled that bad debt.

Repubs love to cry about how poor people who took out ARMs are the cause of the problem when they ARE NOT the ones who used the bad debt as a financial instrument.

[ECB]

Charlie Cook just explained the change in the recent polls to that punk Joe - he looked as if he were going to cry.

I love it - John McCain will not admit that Obama is SURGING in the polls.

[naschkatze]

This looks great, but we can't ease up and I'm not counting any chickens until they hatch on November 4. The thing is he only needs one more state than Kerry or Gore. He will have that, but the more the better.

[baghdadjoe]

The surge is working...

LOL!!

[HypnoToad]

Since JoeBlowHard is subbing for Gregory, Ill do it again....

Trol) slaying 101

I for one welcome new posters. But you may not realize that some people here are actually people who are paid to post in order to divert your attention and spread misinformation. They actually are paid by each response you give them. They get paid by the email alerts. Make an original post instead.

If you are are unfamiliar with how some of the features of this site work, this might be helpful. You can click on the "See Profile" button. This will of course take you to their profile. You can immediately see the total number of comments they have made. If it is a low number and they have been created recently, make comments that are absurd and divisive, you can usually bet they are what is called a trol).

**********­**********­**********­**********­********
Not all trol)s are paid, some just have a been getting away with not paying their fair share, some have personal issues.
**********­**********­**********­**********­********

Ignore them for they are not posting to help our country, but rather to line their pockets or feed their sickness.

[coyote4]

I think the McCain camp is paying the trolls per post and not per reply.

[SurferKit]

I heard that on another thread as well.

[MNmommy]

No matter which way they are getting reimbursed for their *efforts*, I've taken to reporting all of their profiles and each post as abusive.

[BigFootJesus]

Either way it is causing someone to waste money. Face it, no one is swayed by any of the tr ol ls posts, therefore the money is wasted. I say we flood the t r o l l s with replies and waste as much Repub money as possible.

[HypnoToad]

Unless they sit in a supervised room, that would be the only way. About any programmer could create posts automatically with a very short script.

[What A Gal]

what if we are GOOD trolls? haha

[HypnoToad]

When you find one, please point them out for me.

[PADebbie]

WOW! Cool, where is the money? I would love that job! NOT! I have a real life and a real job, this is play time for me! The truth is what I am spreading! You people here are just a little confused and it seems to me you do not like the people that come here and give their opinions? Why is that are you a fan of the fairness doctrine?

[PADebbie]

If you want to know what the other side is doing wrong, always look at what they are accusing you of doing!

[lukebenward]

Like lipstick on a pitbull...­..
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=20hkdih&s=4
'Member, SHE said it!

[gladys46]

PA will hold for O ... he will take most of this state ... Pittsburgh, bittergate areas will go for McSame ... the rest of the state will be O's !!! How well do you know the candidates ... cute:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/MatchOMatic/fullpage?id=5542139

[AdLib]

As the rest of the week goes by...and if Wall Street doesn't_cr­ash...and life as we know it goes on...doesn­'t the argument for the desperate need to give the financial crooks $700 billion become a bit weaker?

Maybe a stalemated Congress is a blessing in this case.

[ZHarris]

Today is National "Hug a Republican" Day...

[exeye]

careful, that, apparently, makes them pregnant.

[donaldw6]

Maybe, maybe not, right? If we can just pass a bill with good protection, it's not the horrible risk that the first version of the bill represents. Do you want to just ride it out and see what happens, or take action, but with a bill that strongly protects taxpayers?

That said, do I really believe that strong bill will ever get written? No. But I'm not too thrilled about gambling with my IRA, either.

[Chillinout]

I am actually gambling with my income. It is derived totally from the stock market. I don't, however, want to lay this huge debt onto my grandson either. I am willing to take the hit and maybe having to go back to work to do my best to insure his future.

[justsomeguywhocameby]

They need to pass something that will get us past the election that the market believes in. After the elections we can do the big fixes. Pres, Senate, House, all Dem.

[GrouchoMarxist]

That's the thing. There is a problem and something needs to be done, but it doesn't necessarily have to be the first proposal offered and it doesn't have to be done yesterday.

They need to work on this and get it right.

[CostaDelBarto]

@06:50 PM on 09/30/2008 AdLib wrote:

"As the rest of the week goes by...and if Wall Street doesn't_cr­ash...and life as we know it goes on...doesn­'t the argument for the desperate need to give the financial crooks $700 billion become a bit weaker?

Maybe a stalemated Congress is a blessing in this case."

This is not a Wall Street crisis. It's a global disaster and it started about a year ago when financial institutions in Europe started to collapse. The crashes have been going over a period of months and so no... a single week is really NOT a good time frame to assess the extent of an economic collapse which took over 20 years to create.

As for the separate issue of a stalemate in congress..­. usually that's a good thing. The congress was, after all, designed to be as ineffective as possible.

[justsomeguywhocameby]

Thank God.