Shrum And Begala On Obama's Next Bailout Move

Shrum And Begala On Obama's Next Bailout Move

With members of Congress, President Bush and John McCain each taking various amounts of blame for the failure to pass a financial bailout package, a question has arisen: what should the one individual seemingly un-scarred from this experience - Barack Obama - do now?

Most Democrats prefer to see Obama stay on his current path, discussing the economy on the campaign trail while maintaining a behind-the-scenes presence in the Wall Street crisis talks.

But others have their interest piqued by a far more dramatic possibility: Having witnessed McCain stumble in his try at a congressional leadership role, what if Obama were to test his hand -- head back to Congress, switch some votes, and gain the credit and status that come with rescuing the economy?

Thomas Schaller, writing for Salon, laid out the blueprint:

"What a great opportunity for Obama to work behind the scenes (in case he fails) and then come forward with two-dozen new Democrats lined up behind him to push the bill over the top. And emerge as the hero of the moment, the markets...and the election."

It is certainly a dangerous gamble. For starters, much of the situation is beyond Obama's control, with congressional negotiators now forced to decided between trying to flip votes or rework the plan altogether. Mainly, however, the bailout is toxic legislation, tied to the Bush administration and unpalatable to many voters. As such, several prominent Democratic strategists had one clear message for their party's nominee: resist the temptation.

"I think the best thing that Obama can do is keep making his case out in the country," said Paul Begala, a former top political strategist for Bill Clinton and author of Third Term. "He is talking to members behind the scenes. I think if Harry Reid and Speaker Pelosi thought it was helpful for him to come back, he would do it. But I think it is unhelpful. And his job is to make the case for change out there and to win the election."

Added Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic consultant who has worked on multiple campaigns: "The one thing Obama must do and will do is respect the process and not try to politicize it... You would have to know what congressional leadership and vote counters thought because you want to make sure you contribute to something getting done, and not inadvertently contribute to something not getting done."

Certainly McCain showed the political perils of entering such a high-stakes arena. Hoping to provide a steady hand in an economic and political storm, the Arizona Republican, by most accounts, played a secondary if not detrimental role. He was left making the difficult case that he did just enough to get some House Republicans on board, but not enough to prevent Nancy Pelosi from foiling the deal.

"Before McCain's intervention, the package was basically put together and he intervened for political reasons, got the House Republicans engaged, and has come close to being the first person to cause a depression without ever being president," said Shrum. "I mean it is extraordinary. It is hard to screw up that bad when you are that powerless."

It's unclear whether Obama would have a better go at it. His presence on the Hill could convince some hesitant Democrats to come on board. But Republicans would likely defect in droves, unwilling to allow themselves to be chess pieces in Obama's electoral strategy.

"The Democrats delivered two-thirds of the caucus," said Begala. "If it gets much higher, then this will look like a Democratic only bill. It is a Bush-Paulson bill. And coming back, you stand to lose some of the Republicans you have. They have got to get more Republicans, that is the game here. And apparently their feelings were hurt because Nancy's speech was too hot. So they have to cook cookies for them or cupcakes maybe. I think McCain made a big mistake by injecting presidential politics into it. And I wouldn't have Barack do that as well."

And so, Begala argues, Obama should stick to what's he done so far: help with the bailout process from the road, and whack the political philosophies that caused the economic downturn in the first place.

"I watched his speech in Michigan yesterday and I liked it," he said. "His first impulse on this was a little bit kumbayah. His first comment was, this was not a Democratic problem or a Republican problem. Well, actually, this is a Republican problem."

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