Polls: Obama Leads In Three Critical States

WASHINGTON — Recently trailing or tied, Democrat Barack Obama now leads Republican John McCain in a trio of the most critical, vote-rich states five weeks before the election, according to presidential poll results released Wednesday.

The Democrat's support jumped to 50 percent or above in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania in Quinnipiac University surveys taken during the weekend _ after the opening presidential debate and during Monday's dramatic stock market plunge as the House rejected a $700 billion financial bailout plan.

Combined, these states offer 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory on Election Day, Nov. 4.

Pollsters attributed Obama's improved standing to the public's general approval of his debate performance, antipathy toward GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and heightened confidence in the Illinois senator's ability to handle the economic crisis.

The fresh polling is the latest troublesome turn for McCain, the Arizona senator who is trying to regain control of the campaign conversation amid increasingly difficult circumstances for Republicans. It comes on the eve of a debate between Palin and her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden, and as the financial crisis shapes the presidential race in unpredictable ways.

For now and probably for the next month, the race will be entirely about who can best handle an economy in peril.

The war in Iraq, national security and foreign policy issues _ McCain's strengths _ have largely fallen by the wayside as each campaign tries to chart a course to the presidency in extraordinarily choppy economic waters.

The new surveys show Obama leading McCain in Florida 51 percent to 43 percent, in Ohio 50 percent to 42 percent and in Pennsylvania 54 percent to 39 percent.

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Since 1960, no president has been elected without winning two of those three states.

The results are notable because they show Obama in a strong position in the pair of states that put Bush in the White House in 2000 and kept him there four years later _ Florida and Ohio, with 27 and 20 electoral votes, respectively.

Obama has been struggling to break into a comfortable lead in both states; for weeks he had been mostly about even with McCain in Ohio while lagging for months in Florida, even after being the only candidate on the air and spending some $8 million on advertising.

Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes, is a different story.

Obama is trying to hang onto the state Democrat John Kerry won four years ago, though McCain has mounted a stiff challenge as he seeks to benefit from his rival's trouble with working-class voters who question his liberal voting record and, perhaps, his race.

The telephone polls, which were taken before and after last week's McCain-Obama debate, have margins of error ranging from plus or minus 2.8 percentage points to plus or minus 3.4 points.

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On the Net:

Quinnipiac Poll: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml

Comments

[gnostic19]

keep focus straight ahead, and don't get ahead of ourselves.

[SwingVoter]

I would be very cautious. For example, I looked at the internals of one of the polls that has Obama leading in North Carolina. 48 % of the polled were Dem, 34 % were Rep and 18 % Ind. Yet, Obama is only up in the poll 2 points.

I love Obama to win NC, but let us all be very careful and play this as if we were down 15 points in the polls.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_929.pdf

[08Voter]

I understand precisely where you are coming from, but remember in states with large number of AAs Obama has overperformed. NC and VA are two such cases. If McCain is only leading by 2% or less, on election day in these two states in particular he will most likely lose. There are many colleges, a younger population, and a high number of AAs which create a perfect storm for a McCain loss.

[SwingVoter]

You make good point. The poll also shows Obama is getting 36 % of white votes who make up 70% off the electorate.

Latest NC demographic:

White: 70 %
Black: 25 %
Other: 5 %

If the equation below stands, Obama could win NC.

(.36 x 70) + (.94 x 25) + (.50 x 5) = 51.2

The above does not include Barr who is polling currently at 2 percent and likely to draw from McCain.

[shanester]

Nice to see NOT all Americans are in love with Palin and can see Obama is the smart choice!!

[pilgrim7]

Let's also not forget the Republican-controlled, pre-loaded Diebold voting machines as well as the fraudulent activities in Ohio and other parts of the country in '04 regarding provisional and absentee ballots:

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2005/110505.html

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8JPNR480&show_article=1


It's going to take money.

[Ivygreen]

We've gotta win by double digits to offset any fraud being perpetrated by the operators of the diebold machines.

[IhaveaDREAMwhitegirl]

True! We've got to win by DOUBLE Digits Folks!

I'd like to see this great country vote Obama into the whitehouse by at least 20 percent!

[RStone]

It looks like it is over for the McSame /Palin team!

http://www.boppoll.com

Obama '08

[CapableOne]

I've said it before: the repugs have stolen Florida and Ohio in the past. Without extreme diligence and vigilant monitoring of voting machines we may again see massive voter fraud. I will NEVER forget election night in 2000 when the news anchors had to go from "Gore wins Florida" to "too close too call".

Come on Ohio and Florida, make your voices heard! Vote for real change!
OBAMA/BIDEN '08

[Ivygreen]

It was a nightmare, purging the voting rolls, the voting irregularities, ballot problems (remember all the retired jews in palm beach county who voted for buchanan), intimidation by state police, the supreme courts unprecedented decision, and finally gore completely caving "for the good of the nation".
Let's not have a repeat.

[seereene1]

Another reason not to vote for McCain - Many of his fellow Vietnam Vets and the families of those MIA who have had direct dealings with him feel he is unfit for the presidency. This site explains why and contains links to YouTube videos of families of vets he's come up against who do not want him in the White House.

www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com

[Sugar78]

(CNN)– Grammy-Award winning musician Jay-Z is set to host a voter registration rally and concert for Sen. Barack Obama in Miami on Sunday.

The event, "Last Chance for Change," is free to those 18 and older, in an attempt to encourage young voters to register before the state's October 6 registration deadline according to a press release.

Florida and its 27 electoral votes have been critical in past elections. According to CNN's electoral map the state is currently a toss up between John McCain and Barack Obama.

CNN Electoral Map Calulator: You Call The Race

Music legends Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel will also be teaming up for the Democratic nominee later this month.

The event, "Change Rocks," will take place at the famed Hammerstein Ballroom in New York City on October 16, the night after the final presidential debate in Hempstead, New York.

Unlike Jay-Z's registration rally, seeing Joel and Springsteen perform is not free to the public. Tickets are selling anywhere from $500 to $10,000.

Springsteen is also expected to join Obama in Philadelphia Saturday, for a free concert before Pennsylvania voters.

"Senator Obama is a great fan of Bruce Springsteen and is honored to have his support. This will be a great opportunity to gather tens of thousands of our supporters together in one place as we register new voters and bring new volunteers into this campaign for change," said Craig Schirmer, the Pennsylvania State Director of the Obama-Biden campaign.

[rcozad]

Don't look now but McCain is falling like a rock here in Arizona and acording to the latest ASU poll has a scant 4 point lead, down from a 15 point lead last June! I see more old "W" bumper stickers around Phoenix than I do McCain Palin which tells you a lot!

[ccpostman]

Retired people are ALWAYS more concerned about their money, than Osama bin Laden jumping out of their cereal bowls! They just woke up are realized they have been duped$ for the last seven years.

Our occupation in Iraq is going to end real fast with Parsons/Halliburton/Blackwater getting billions with no reliable audits of or controls on spending. And these type of companies want us to bail them out and have business as usual here in the U.S.

[seereene1]

Another reason to vote for Obama - A coalition of more than 200 retired diplomats and generals. People well versed in foreign policy has endorsed his presidency. See:

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/09/28/200_former_US_diplomats_endorse_Obama/UPI-58941222655586/

For all his 26 years experience that he keeps touting - None of them seems particularly impressed with John McCain. Why are all these folks endorsing Obama? Because they see the same qualities in him that we do. I'd love to see a TV ad around these endorsements.

[truthforme]

OHH . . . MY . . . GOD! McCain just got a 200 strong NO CONFIDENCE vote.

This is HUGE!! Includes Madeleine Albright and Warren Christopher.
(me- dancing a jig)

This needs to be sent out to every home in America.

[Grunty1]

Given the low rate of turn over in the Congress, all his 26 years of experience really means is that he could run a good campaign in 1982.

[LCRover001]

Don't let them win never think this thing is in the bag get out and vote, do what you can to take others to vote, whatever you do vote.

The right has been sending bogus absente ballots that are either missing something so if they are sent to the right place they will not be counted, or have the wrong return address on them so if they are returned they will not be counted. They are also pushing the foreclosure thing where they gather list of foreclosed homes and place operatives in polling places to challenge those who vote and are on the list as votes who are voting in the wrong district. There are still no real checks on the voting machines. They will post police at the polling places again to scare people away.

Don't let these antics scare you or others form the polling places stand and deliver. Check on the elderly and make sure they are not being scammed by these false absentee ballots, if they can not go down to the polling places make sure they fill out the proper absentee ballots and that they are sent to the right places. Protect our right to vote and protect the rights of others never let anyone take that away form you or others. Check everything and double check it because these guys are out to win at any cost.

Every vote counts people so vote and vote smart.

[ProudLiberalDan]

Vote now if you can, either early or by absentee. This makes the inevitable conservative election day shenanigans less effective.

Expect deliberately long lines in minority-populated precints in states and counties controlled by Republicans.

[bdl0715]

Even Dick Morris has Obama winning with 355 electoral votes to McCain's 133.

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?s=al&promo_code=6BD7-1

[IndianaMeg]

I was reading somewhere that Dick Morris has often been criticized for his opinions and findings to favor Republicans. Makes you wonder if he's doing this as a ploy to get the GOP supporters fired up and chomping at the bit to go vote on Nov 4th. Or if he's actually reporting factual info.

I mean, let's think about it. If Barack starts having some huge lead, will that deter a lot of his voters from going out and casting their ballots on election day? Because they think Barack has it "in the bag"? That is what makes me nervous. We need every single Barack voter to go out and vote, no matter what the polls show.

[Morpheus008]

After being accurately labeled as out of touch, McCain is doing everything to confirm that he is. Why in the world would he put a mansion up for sale so close to the election. I don't think he is desperate for cash or is it just arrogance and trying to prove that he's nothing like the rest of you, even if he is an smug, angry, old man. This is the CNN link to a video of the Crib Mcmansion.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/09/30/dnt.mccain.house.for.sale.ktvx

[Tobiasism]

THANKS. THIS IS GREAT.
You are correct in your analysis.
They must be out of their minds.
This has to play everywhere.
Hilarious.

[Nicolaus]

Not at all. You got it wrong. He is giving evidence that as a President he can do two things at the same time... Tax releife to the rich, and self-help on the other.

Way to go!

[Grunty1]

He proved he cannot do that either. See bailing himself out of the debate to wreak any progress on the financial bills.

Actually, in that case, he proved that he cannot handle ONE task very well.

[Ohg]

Everything about John McCain points to a personality obsessed with power and control. HIs world view is rooted in the deep personality of his upbringing. .......He is a scary guy. ..............
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/01/mccains-world-view-power-and-control/

[jimme]

Well, It's October, are you ready for your 'surprise"?

I can't wait to see what these treasonous low-lifes will do just to get elected. After seeing what mccain has stooped too, there's no telling what they will conceive of and the mindless will go along hook,line,and sinker, like they always do.

On second thought, I can wait.

[Nicolaus]

The aging Senator - who gladly accepts hie buea's repeated statement of 'Our Administration' has a real big surprise:

To turn the tables, ONCE AND FOR ALL, he is joining the Obama campaign.

This is no big deal for the accomplished aging Senator. Voters are accustomed to him changing his mind - in fact no one is can identifying the McCain of the 2000 with that of the 2008. So it should be a deft quick move.

The new ticket as designed by his ailing campaign staff is: Obama/Biden/McCain-Palin. Some minor constitutional issues will be ironed out.

Way to go!

[Grunty1]

It is the only way he's going to win short of Diebold.

[ProudLiberalDan]

Look to Iran. I'm scared that's the October surprise.

1) Neocons have wanted war against Iran from the beginning. If Iraq hadn't gone so poorly, we already would be in one. They will consider this their last chance if they think McCain will lose. If McCain is elected, we will have a war with Iran on top of the two we have, since McCain believes he knows how to "win wars."

2) Israel wants military strikes against Iran and has been waiting for U.S. approval to attack.

3) The neocons will try to switch the topic of conversation to foreign policy in one last ditch effort to try and save McCain.

[truthforme]

I think if our current president tries to go to war with Iran you will see a protest march in D.C. the likes you have never seen before. I, for one, would be there.