MSNBC's Todd: Race, Polls At 'Tipping Point': 'This Should Really Scare The McCain Campaign'

On MSNBC this morning, in-house polling guru Chuck Todd told the Morning Joe panel that the race had reached a "tipping point," with tonight's vice-presidential debate looming as something of a must-win for John McCain. Polling trends "should really scare the McCain campaign," Todd said, adding, "he needs something, anything to stop this Obama momentum. Now, all the pressure is being put on Sarah Palin...not just for her own persona but to save the McCain campaign."

Palin's recent troubles with Katie Couric aside, that could be a tall order. In a chat at the Washington Post's website yesterday, FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver and Pollster.com's Charles Franklin captured Palin's status as a game-changer thusly:

Nate Silver: The one area where Palin seems to have helped McCain is in the *rural* west, by which I mean states like Montana, North Dakota and (of course) Alaska, all states where Obama had hoped to compete before. States like Colorado and Nevada, by the way, should *not* be described as rural, since most of their population lives in cities.

But I don't think she's been a help to McCain most anywhere else on the map. For a little bit, it looked like she was helping him win over some pro-life moderate Catholics in Pennsylvania and perhaps Wisconsin, but the PA polls are now swinging back to Obama pretty rapidly.

Charles Franklin: She seems to have moved white women in the Rep direction pretty strongly after the RNC, but that has now come back by half, to about a 6-8 point McCain lead. Interestingly white men didn't react to Palin but have now moved towards Obama since the financial crisis arose.

Todd said that Palin's success depended on her making her opponent, Joe Biden, the central topic of conversation tomorrow, whether through a gaffe of his own making or a "memorable line" of her own.

Todd went on to express some skepticism of Obama's reported wide lead in Virginia, but offered up a bellwether for observers to track in the next week: "If John McCain is campaigning in Missouri later this week, that's not a good sign. You shouldn't have to be worrying about Missouri at this point."

[WATCH.]

Meanwhile, a New York Times poll finds more bad news for McCain:

A CBS News poll released Wednesday found that Mr. Obama's favorability rating, at 48 percent, is the highest it has ever been in polls conducted by CBS and The New York Times. At the same time, the number of voters who hold an unfavorable view of Mr. McCain -- 42 percent -- is as high as it has been since CBS News and The Times began asking the question about Mr. McCain in 1999, the first time he ran for president.

Comments

[BinaryDelt]

Palin and McCain are done. How can anyone take their ticket seriously anymore?

http://www.2lincolns.com/2008/10/02/why-so-sarahious/

[pons1595]

See the banned ad that reveals McCain as unfit to lead:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yp39wqOjAtE

[BinaryDelt]

Palin and McCain are done. How can anyone take their ticket seriously anymore?

Why So Sarahious?

[kyvette68]

Ok as someone who grew up in Missouri and lived there most of my life (I've been in Washington State the last 10 years) I have to ask: Why do they keep calling MO a republican state? Except for picking Stevenson over Eisenhower it has picked the President in every election since god knows when. I always thought of it as a swing state. Especially with KC and St Louis having such high concentrations of minority voters. So I think yes you will see Mc Cain campaigning in MO up until election day.

[laire]

kyvette68,

I feel what your saying its like when you see they have washington state leaning for Obama. I want to reach in the t.v. to chuck Todd and say are you guys crazy washington state is going to be a landslide for Obama. I live in Seattle and as you know every county in the primary went for Obama.

[separatingwheatfromchaff]

Polling trends "should really scare the McCain campaign," Todd said, adding, "he needs something, anything to stop this Obama momentum. Now, all the pressure is being put on Sarah Palin...no­t just for her own persona but to save the McCain campaign."­**********­**********­**********­**********­**********­**********­********We all know what their campaign needs,new candidates that are willing to face up to the lobbyists and do what's right for the least of us,but what would happen to donations?They would dry up,so they have to get up there on national TV and make absolute fools of themselves by trying to hide their pedantic agenda while Joe Biden exposes one lie after another.Th­en after Mrs.Palin is exposed,she finishes the segment with the same lies that were just exposed minutes ago.SURREA­L,I knew Joe would win but never imagined Sarah would make such a fool of herself.Wh­at was that winking about?

[Krikkit]

"Is [Palin] gonna come in here over-programmed with the facts?"

I heard that and I had to laugh out loud. Facts? They don't have those in Alaska, apparently.

[AllenD]

The good news for Gov. Palin, those of us who tuned in waiting for a train wreck didn't get one. The bad news is that Biden won the debate easily.

[Zingaro Zorro]

The train couldn't climb the ramp over the bridge to nowhere.

[mysterygirl18]

Now, why is it that she can attack Joe? But he can't go after her? Hmmmm...ru­nning for the same office- hmmmm....w­hat's wrong with this picture...

http://www.myspace.com/wakeupnowpeople

[yoyobrit83]

So, Palin has to attack Joe which could/would make her look mean.

And that's pretty difficult for her to do considering everyone knows she made an ass out of herself on Katie Couric's show so people will be thinking, "How can she attack someone else at this point?"

Not only does she have to give real answers, but she has to change everyone's perceptions of her and Mr. McCain. I don't see that happening.

[progressivelady]

mc-aint, need's another hail mary pass, LMAO

[condieshoes]

I'm not that quick to think that voters are that jaded as to fall for a few quick one liners and Palin is the clear winner. This is not a beauty contest. This is a debate between two people who are running for the Vice Presidency of the United States.

I think that they are going to listen with "new urgency" because of this financial crisis and they will make decisions on compentancy.

[Pupster]

People, despite this news we need to keep giving and campaigning for Obama.

The RNC just reported that they raised a record $66million in September, and a new Mason-Dixon poll in Virginia show McCain slightly ahead 48-45. Things are much closer than some of the polls are showing.

Complacency is the enemy!!!

[frenchie25]

Yes! Now is the time for a full court press. The registration of new voters in some States ends this weekend or mid-week next. Phone banks need help...sig­n up at www.barackobama.comm). You can call from your own home or join a "calling" party. Check all opps at the site.

This movement started as a well oiled, grass roots efforts. Let's finish the job with a flurish!

Obama/Biden '08!
Let's Rock the Vote!!!

[mstrawbale]

john mc cain cannot claim they are the leaders in energy....­. jimmy carter .... A DEMOCRAT ...our most forward thinking green president put solar panels on the roof of the white house. in the 1970,s.... ...it was trickle down economics guru ronald reagan who took them down......­.jimmy carter could see what was coming then as he does now ...open your eyes people jonnie boy is spinning like a top...

[kellygrrrl]

the McCain Campaign SCARES me to death. I think the polling numbers reflect that I'm not alone.

[concernvoter]

Ask Sarah to read the "Three Little Pigs" I'm quiet sure the republicans would be able to whisper the words in her ear. Please check for any unidentified objects connected to her.

[concernvoter]

I was listening to Chuck Todd last night and I really do believe that he is against Obama, but that is just fine. One thing I've learn about the American people, we are not put on this earth to like everybody, but one thing about it, we will wish one day that we were. If Obama becomes president then Chuck that means you will have to serve under the same roof that we are serving under. Never hatch your eggs too early, because you may be the one left with yolk on your face.

[galinha]

You are very observant. I have also concluded that Todd doesn't like Obama. It's only that he cannot cook the numbers, he would be doing so if he could

[BillORights1776]

I see complaints of such, but to be honest, whenever I listen to him, I don't hear it.

Now I'll grant I usually see on Olbermann or Madow, so he could tune his responses.­..

[psychmaj323]

Yeah me too, I think he's against Obama.

[johnu1974]

i don't he's against obama. i think he's making the race seem close to keep himself relevant. i saw him on hardball last night with charlie cook, and i think charlie cook is more anti-obama than chuck todd is. he's just doing what the network wants him to which is keep the story going until election day.

[GuyFawkes]

I'm not sure where you're getting he's anti- or pro-Obama. I saw both interviews, and he seems pretty clear headed to me, as he was during the primaries. If anything, I like contrarians who say this is far from over. Let's face it: Va, Ind, Ohio, Nc, and Fla are still tough hills to climb and there's still 33 days to go. And Colorado and Nevada are by no means assured. Just ask Kerry, who banked a lot on Nevada and lost. Todd is just doing his job and saying you can't look at these polls and take as absolutes their number, which I agree with. I think some of us are popping champagne a little too early.

[mydoglucky]

Chuck Todd's wife, Kristian, has worked for a number of Dems. She last worked in Jim Webb's campaign. My guess would be he is trying to be as "fair" as possible and appears to go too far the other way. I love Chuckie T. :)