Obama Up 10 In Virginia According To New Polls

A new SurveyUSA poll finds John McCain's chances of winning Virginia slipping away. Barack Obama is ahead in the state by ten points, 53% to 43%. The full results:

As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.

There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.

There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.

There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 10/04/08 and 10/05/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 666 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. Virginia last cast its Electoral College votes for a Democratic Presidential candidate in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater.

A Suffolk Poll shows Obama with a similarly commanding lead in the state, 51% to 39%.

On OffTheBus, Diane Tucker reports that new voter registration in Virginia has far exceeded the Obama campaign's goals. The Politico adds that Virginia Republicans are warning McCain that he could lose the state, which has gone Republican in every presidential election since 1964.

Comments

[scutter22]

11:35 AM on 10/27/2008

Obama is coming to JMU in Harrisonburg ...any vote is up for grabs here in VA. I blogged about this in The Trouble With Scutter on blogspot .... a few things I said are:

....here in the Shenandoah Valley, where it is VERY VERY conservative and republican, there are honestly those who just feel they don't need to educate themselves on someones stance on issues. They think all democrats are bad, (evil even) and all republicans are good. Terrible thing for America ..this my team / your team system. And that's one of the reasons that an Obama speech here, with the usual adoration that accompanys all his stumping, will seem so out of place at JMU tomorrow.

Eight years ago, we chose a C student over a future nobel prize winner. I kinda lost faith that American democracy, though it is a right way of doing things, doesn't always make the right choice. Always wonder where we'd be today after 8 years of President Gore. No worse I guarantee.

I can honestly say at this point, 8 days from election, that I am someone who could be pursuaded to change my mind on the presidential election. But I am leaning Obama ...with a certain amount of "show me what you can do big man." Let's hope what he can do is reallly lead America to think about whats right for America on the issues and lead us away from partisan politics.

[Crix]

01:51 PM on 10/07/2008

We should know fairly early in the evening of election night if Obama has won. If he grabs Virginia, it's a done deal.

Keep fighting, Virginians! Make it happen! We're counting on you.

[robynuva]

07:50 AM on 10/07/2008

Here in VA we are fired up and ready to go! The Richmond office is humming, tons of people everyday.

My daughter canvasses in Norfolk, and says she sees a real shift in military families FOR Sen. O there.

We are the home of TJ and James Madison, Monroe and Wilson. We are the state of Gov Holten, one of the bravest R's ever. We are the state that elected the first AA Gov. in the entire nation since reconstruction.

We will go blue. We will have a D gov, two D Sen. and we will vote for Sen. O. Take it to the bank.

[cindyw]

08:08 AM on 10/07/2008

Great news. Thanks, Virginia. I'm in KY, and I wish I could say the same. We are the home of Abraham Lincoln, but he didn't stay very long.

[MarionWatts]

06:50 AM on 10/07/2008

I am a Virginia ex-pat, living in the UK, where those other great Virginia women, Nancy Astor and Pocahontas, are buried. Here is one Virginia gal who will burst with pride if the Commonwealth goes Democratic and supports Obama. It will honestly be one of the proudest days of my life as a Virginian. I'm getting my absentee ballot off tomorrow - straight Democratic. This state-turn wouldn't have been possible without the hard work of our great governor Tim Kaine, our wonderful Senator Jim Webb and our soon-to-be second Democratic senator, Mark Warner. Here's hoping Obama/Biden reclaim the intelligent hearts and minds of the Commonwealth who gave the U S 8 presidents.

Go Obama/Biden 08 and Go 'Hoos!

[SCVADem]

03:11 AM on 10/07/2008

From the Virginian-Pilot:

McCAIN, PALIN TO CAMPAIGN IN VIRGINIA BEACH

Republican presidential candidate John McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, are slated to hold a rally in Virginia Beach next Monday. They're scheduled to appear at the Virginia Beach Convention Center at 10 a.m. The doors will open at 8 a.m. Tickets will be available starting Tuesday.
------------------------------------------
Ok Hampton Roads, you know what to do!

[DrDemon]

05:46 AM on 10/07/2008

The McFailin' posse' is wasting their time...

[dml48221]

02:41 AM on 10/07/2008

While all of this is great, I am really worried about voter suppression attempts and hope that when the Obama campaign becomes aware of it, they get out the word regsarding the methods so some people won't get hooked in.

[DrDemon]

05:49 AM on 10/07/2008

I share your concern as well...something I actually emailed HuffPost months ago, requesting that they shed some light on the subject; but with no avail.

[MoeB]

10:38 AM on 10/07/2008

Read some of the Off the Bus posts...they address the issue-a few even address what to do to possibly avoid this.

[walk0nwalls]

01:14 AM on 10/07/2008

Wow, that's really something.

[DEMAREBETTER2008]

12:45 AM on 10/07/2008

I am from Virginia Beach Virginia, and I am so proud of my State. LBJ JFK, RFK, ,MLK are all smiling from heaven. What a great vDay it will be for America.

[sbp]

01:42 AM on 10/07/2008

Thank you Virginia!!!

[DrDemon]

05:54 AM on 10/07/2008

Yes...if it works out for O, It would truly be "a great vDay" for America!

I join sbp in thanking you and your state as well! History in the making!

[jacqmac]

12:45 AM on 10/07/2008

umm-is there some LAW or something against EXIT POLLS for EARLY voting? Isn't early voting as good an indicator-if not BETTER-of which way the wind is REALLY blowing here? I think it would be nice to see which states are REALLY still considered TRUE 'swing' states for the next 20 or so days and which are just hanging on to their notoriety. I mean-voters generally reveal who they voted for in the General during an exit poll, I'm sure they'd gladly reveal who they voted for EARLY (as part of the General election). Maybe I'm wrong or something--anybody know WHY there aren't exit polls for EARLY voters?

[jcrush]

12:27 AM on 10/07/2008

Oh, the party at my house in Pittsburgh PA is going to be so off the freaking HOOK when Obama wins. Election Day 11/4, my birthday 11/11, my daughter's 17th birthday 11/13. She volunteers downtown Pittsburgh with the campaign 3 - 4 days per week. I volunteer in my neighborhood 5 - 6 days per week. It's so going to be a week of mania here. You're all invited! Bring your own pillow and blanket, NO DRUNK DRIVERS LEAVE MY HOUSE. lol You just don't understand the GALA AFFAIR that will be held in my house for a solid week. I already have a headache. This may be the only thing that causes more partying than the Steelers winning their 5th ring, Superbowl XL. That'll be gift enough when I see Obama announced as the projected winner. I can't WAIT.

Happy Birthday to ME.

[Purobi]

07:22 AM on 10/07/2008

Happy Birthday to you, but please go vote and make sure everyone at your party does that too. I am too scared to plan an advanced party but I will probably cry for a long time out of sheer happiness. For the last 8 years I tell people (I travel a lot), "I am from California". Now once again, I will be able to say, " I am from the USA with pride". At least I hope so.

[Fight4USA8]

12:24 AM on 10/07/2008

>>Thank you Virginia.

>>Palin called Obama TERRORISTS,

>>McCain brother Joe called Virginians COMMUNIST

>>Guess who wished another 9/11 on USA, the McCain Campaign

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/23/mccain-adviser-apologizes-for-terrorism-remark/

[chitown8]

11:25 PM on 10/06/2008

RICHMOND, Va. - The wife of Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel plans to endorse Democrat Barack Obama.

Lilibet Hagel has scheduled a 10 a.m. news conference in Alexandria, Va., on Tuesday with Susan Eisenhower, the daughter of Republican President Eisenhower.

Hagel, R-Neb., has made no endorsement. Lilibet Hagel said in an Associated Press interview that her decision was independent of her husband. She said she didn't know whether he would make an endorsement or whom he would support.

[jcrush]

12:28 AM on 10/07/2008

Thanks for this post. I also heard that Susan Eisenhower was going to annouce that she has officially left the repub party?? Did she already do that??

[JNagarya]

02:19 AM on 10/07/2008

Yes. She's now an independent.

And as far as I know she is his granddaughter.

[RJII]

10:49 PM on 10/06/2008

I've been in DC for a while now-- grew up above the mason dixie line. I luv VA and am so happy reading some of these posts. Even got exciting when sister's friend volunteered to go door to door in VA for O. I wanted all the details.

Go VA!!!!!!!

[EvasDaddy]

12:11 AM on 10/07/2008

RJ, go get your own details! I canvassed for Obama last weekend, and it was nothing short of exhilarating!

There is a tremendous satisfaction in joining a groundswell of hope.

[pie8ter]

10:43 PM on 10/06/2008

"In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8"

Is this a misprint?

[Sabreen60]

09:30 PM on 10/06/2008

I live not far from northern VA. McKane's brother said the people there are c0mmies. I didn't know that. I know many people who live there. I'm sure they'll be thrilled to hear that they have been called c0mmies.

[RJII]

10:41 PM on 10/06/2008

lmao. can you imagine what a President McCain would be like daily.

[siney]

03:17 AM on 10/07/2008

well, it seems people have imagined just that and so have turned to happier thoughts such as- a president obama :)