Obama Up 10 In Virginia According To New Polls

A new SurveyUSA poll finds John McCain's chances of winning Virginia slipping away. Barack Obama is ahead in the state by ten points, 53% to 43%. The full results:

As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.

There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.

There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.

There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 10/04/08 and 10/05/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 666 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. Virginia last cast its Electoral College votes for a Democratic Presidential candidate in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater.

A Suffolk Poll shows Obama with a similarly commanding lead in the state, 51% to 39%.

On OffTheBus, Diane Tucker reports that new voter registration in Virginia has far exceeded the Obama campaign's goals. The Politico adds that Virginia Republicans are warning McCain that he could lose the state, which has gone Republican in every presidential election since 1964.

Comments

[kitchenappliances]

I am in the UK at the moment and the general consensus is that McCain is just a bully. He is starting to show his true old fashioned political methods now the going has gotten tough - he is bad for the US. Please let Obama win for the sake of the World, not just the States.

[Lagniappe]

John McCain is the quintessential "Ugly American."­,despite whatever shade of Revlon his pitbull gal pal Pain is wearing,today.

[PCRX]

I feel that this will only happen if the vote turnout is HUGE and that includes the YOUTH VOTE. It is time to take it all back but this will only happen in the Obama folks get out in massive droves to vote INCLUDING the youth and college age Obama voters. We need the numbers to be so far in our favor in turnout that the results will be a CLEAR mandate: NO NORE WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH!!

[Countdown09]

I truly am glad to see that the American people seem to be more concerned about the serious issues facing this country this election instead of being distracted by swift boat tactics. Ms. Palin might want to reconsider allowing the Mc Cain camp to "use" her, she does have a political future to consider however, interesting enough I think this nasty attack dog roll comes natural for her.

[RaraAvis17]

What I have concluded from all this is she is DONE! TOAST if you will! Even the Alaskan people can't stand her, and especially now. The real Pa lin has come out and it's not pretty.

[iPolitics]

McCain better start defending North Carolina b/c Virginia is going, going, gone

[GuyFawkes]

read today;s politico: GOP freaking out that McErratic is letting NC slip away.

[iPolitics]

McCain's brother thinks people from Virginia are communists.

[norkas]

Please everyone read the very important article about Johns military record written in rolling stone magazine , you will be shocked. You may read it online for no charge just goggle it. Please send it to everyone you know.

[demright]

Read it already you are right it is a must http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain/page/1age/1 Here is a good one On Palin http://www.truthout.org/article/palin-can-launch-us-back-time

[RaraAvis17]

I wonder if McCain will beg B00sh to 'Suspend' the Election in November - At this point anything is possible.

[thinbluetorpedo]

Republicans sure have a lot of states to rig ballot boxes in this year. Its not going to be easy for them like 2000, where all they needed was one state and a federal bench. Or 2004 where all they needed was to rig Ohio. This year they are going to have to rig at least 3 states.

[McChimp]

Hmmmm.....­. rig Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, and possibly even West Virginia?

I think the Republicans are WAY out of their league, they don't have the money to rig ALL those states, they will lose at least two of them guaranteed, maybe even more.

[TinRoofRusted]

I'm in VA, too, and ALL I SEE is McCain/Palin yard signs and bumper stickers. It's frightening.

Obama's office here has NEVER had any signs or bumper stickers. They say they ordered them and are still waiting for them to come in. Yikes!

I FINALLY got my MoveOn.org sticker TWO days ago. I ordered it the same night Biden was selected as VP.

Man, it just ain't right. Do they really want to win VA?

[thinbluetorpedo]

A contrast, here in southern Nevada, all you see is Obama stickers, signs etc. You rarely see anything McCain. Go figure, the state is polling 50/50.

[SCVADem]

I've seen a lot of signs south of Chesterfie­ld/Colonia­l Heights... into Petersburg and south. Also, more than I expected in Hampton Roads when I went there on Saturday. Bought a yard sign from the Newport News Dems for $5.

[Liberal2]

It could be "protective coloration". VA is extremely conservative and conservative who are rejecting Bush...and anyone who voted 90% of the time with Bush...are just putting up signs so their neighbors *THINK* they are still voting rethug instead of smart.

[robXdion]

You know dam well VA is racist. If Richmond can't put up a statue of Arthur Ashe, what makes you think those bluebloods will tolerate Obama? The polls are mainly covering whites, since they assume minorities are a shoo for O. And whites over 40 in VA are still reminiscing over the Civil War, with reenactments and everything. So do you REALLY think they'll support Obama? C'mon. They the same as Alabama, they just have more degrees.

[FanofPaine]

I usually agree with you robXdion, but I live in Virginia. In a part where confederate flags fly next to American ones, this is a close race in Virginia and Obama has a legitimate chance of winning it. Is he going to win by 9 percentage points? No. But winning Virginia is a real deal for Obama. Remember, we also elected Douglas Wilder. Do not underestimate us. A lot of people are working hard.

I would say some parts of VA is racist and even there people are waffling in their feelings because of the economy.

[TinRoofRusted]

Yes, they fought for YEARS to get Ashe's statue up on Monument Ave. They had it moved to the Ashe Center, yes?

And yes, I think we WILL support O.

I took my son who voted for the FIRST time this year to see O in VaBeach in March -- with over 18,000 people.

Yes, I'm supportive.

Would just like a yard sign, that's all.

[Heaphy]

The Obama campaign has made a conscious and deliberate decision to de-emphasize yard signs. Yard signs do not vote, people do. Instead of working on the surface trivialities, the Obama campaign is instead registering massive numbers of new voters, outperforming the Republicans dramatically. We are canvassing and phone banking to indentify the Obama supporters and persuade the undecided. We are encouraging early vote-by-mail to get those votes in the bank. We will do a massive get-out-the-vote effort in the final days. But TinRoofRusted really, really wants yard signs. This person took the time to visit the local Obama office but left disappointed when there were no free yard signs. I can't help wonder why this person didn't pitch in to help the Obama office with canvassing or phone banking? Maybe if this person proved to be a valuable volunteer, one reward may have been a precious yard sign. I have volunteered in person in several battleground states, phone banked many times and helped organize many campaign events and fundraisers. And I have my very own yard sign.
- Jim Heaphy

[TinRoofRusted]

You are right. It's just disheartening to see all these signs and not ONE Obama sign.

My boyfriend and son have already voted here in VA.

AGAIN, I DID OFFER TO HELP. Filled out the forms. NO ONE CALLED ME FROM THIS OFFICE.

Prove myself more? I GAVE MONEY to the campaign.

[FanofPaine]

Spent yesterday canvassing for Obama in Central Virginia. I live in "Falwell City" and it's an uphill battle here, but we are finding support for Obama even in this city. I'll be back out next weekend and plan on helping to get the vote out on November 4. I see Virginia going to Obama. Charlottesville is mostly Obama. Richmond and Northern Virginia is Obama country (to use a McCain slogan here in VA). I think Fairfax shocked some for being more for Obama than some thought. Hampton Roads is Obama. In fact, Central VA and Southwest VA is where the problems lie for Obama, but we don't have to win this area, we just have to put a dent in this area to help buoy the other areas of the VA. I see this as doable.

In fact, if you live in a nearby state that doesn't need help getting the vote out and you've already cast your ballot and have Nov. 4 off, please travel to those states that are battlegrounds. Contact a headquarters and see what you can do to help those Obama supporters get out the vote. All help is needed.

[SCVADem]

In South-central VA, it's hard to tell exactly which way the wind is blowing. I have found lots of people don't like to talk about how they're going to vote, though many smile at me when they see my Obama t-shirt. Here in Sussex County, it's looking like it's going for Obama.

[Heaphy]

To those doing the hard work for Obama in the more conservative areas of battleground states, please remember that a single Obama vote in a precinct that goes 70% for McCain is worth exactly the same as an Obama vote in a precinct that goes 70% for Obama. It is the total vote in the entire state that determines the electoral vote, and all we need to do is get a few more votes than McCain in any given state, and we get ALL those electoral votes. Don't be demoralized - think strategically. Every Obama vote is precious. The only exceptions to my generalization are Nebraska and Maine - in those states they allocate electoral votes partially by Congressional districts instead of purely statewide. Thanks for the wonderful work you are doing, FanofPaine.
- Jim Heaphy

[tgram]

Hey, don't let up and don't get lax about this election. Keep working hard to make sure the best Democrats in all races win this year. Keep talking to voters and pushing for a better America. The world is watching. Right now they are laughing at us because of the Bush Administration, but soon we will be on top again.

Go Obama!
God Bless America!

[buglet]

My brother is a lifelong Republican who lives in northern Virginia and actually voted for Hillary in the primary, and will now vote for Obama. He didn't care for McCain in the first place, but the selection of Palin completely lost him. He's utterly appalled by her. This the same brother to whom I couldn't even talk politics 8 years ago because he was such a huge Bush fan. Nice job, Bush!

[KarlaElisa]

Has anybody heard a peep about how Bush threatened the House with martial law if they did not pass the bailout package????
See for yourself..­.a Rep discusses it on the house floor:

http://www.thoughtcrimes.org/s9/index.php?/archives/2618-BushCo-threatens-martial-law-to-get-bill-passed.html

[GerryS]

thx for this- g

[Budokan]

the disparity between newly registered Dems and Repugs is telling...

[iphelgix]

Obama now leads by 8 points per latest national poll.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

[McChimp]

I'm in VA and I see plenty of McCain/Palin stickers, but plenty more Obama/Biden stickers

the McCain/Palin stickers are just the same party line voters that ALWAYS vote Republican, they won't outnumber all the new voters we have registered that will turn out and vote for Obama, and we will also elect Dem Governor Mark Warner to the US Senate!!!

[furryone]

VIRGINIA RULES--HECK YAH YOU BETCHA!!!

see...and Obama supporter can be "folksy" too!
OBAMANOS!

Obama/Biden '08!

[BCubedReg]

I'm in norther VA too.. I've seen more obama stickers than McCain/Pal­in.. if that is any indication­... Obama is fareing well.

[StephenDedalus82]

It appears that this election, which was supposed to turn on whether Obama could pass the threshold of trust for an electorate hungry for Democratic leadership, has now turned into a referendum on John McCain. It didn't even really require O's geniuses to make the switch, McCain made himself the more dangerous candidate all by himself. I think the first debate really secured Obama as someone people could see being president. The great thing is, the more McCain engages in swiftboating, the more he damages the only reason he had a chance in the first place, his maverickiness. Now he's just feeding the narrative that casts him as angry and unstable.