NY Times: "Every Recession Since The Late '50s Has Been Associated With An Increase In Crime"
It is the question on the minds of New Yorkers, once they stop pondering the fate of their 401(k)'s: If the city's economy sinks to depths not seen in decades, will crime return with a vengeance?
Expert opinions differ, but the question is hardly illogical. The last time stocks on Wall Street fell hard, in 1987, crime was exploding, and the city saw historic highs in murders in the following years.
Before that, the fiscal crisis of the 1970s helped lead to the abandonment of neighborhoods, failing schools and startling crime rates: robberies built through those years to a high in 1981, when there were 107,495 of them, for an average of 294 a day. (Last year's total reported robberies, 21,787, was the lowest figure in modern history.)
"Every recession since the late '50s has been associated with an increase in crime and, in particular, property crime and robbery, which would be most responsive to changes in economic conditions," said Richard Rosenfeld, a sociologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. Typically, he said, "there is a year lag between the economic change and crime rates."
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NY Times | CHRISTINE HAUSER and AL BAKER | October 10, 2008 08:27 AM