SPRINGFIELD, Ill. -- Barack Obama's presidential campaign is generating a wave of enthusiasm in Illinois, but don't expect a tsunami that will radically change the state's political landscape.
The Illinois senator could bring enough new Democratic-leaning voters to the polls to make a difference in tight legislative or congressional races. His campaign also makes it easier for other Democrats to identify potential donors and volunteers -- someone who requests an Obama yard sign, for instance, could be asked to support other Democrats, too.
Truly competitive races are rare, however, and insiders from both parties doubt the Obama effect will doom Republicans in general.
"I don't think it's going to be quite the wipeout that maybe we feared a few months ago," said former Gov. Jim Edgar, a Republican.
Obama could give the state's Democrats a long-term boost by getting more people involved in politics. They could wind up being the volunteers and even candidates in future elections, deepening the party's talent pool.
But Republicans hope the effect may be muted by Democratic problems in other areas.
Republicans are telling voters that if they support Obama's theme of change, they should vote against Democrats, who dominate all three branches of state government. Under Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who could run for re-election in two years, Democrats have butted heads and argued as many problems worsen.
"You can't make Illinois better by electing more Democrats," said Jack Kubik, former chief of staff for Illinois House Republicans.
Democrats certainly hope to win more races with Obama heading the ticket.
Dan Seals has closely linked his congressional campaign to Obama. His first television ad aired the night Obama accepted the Democratic nomination and said his opponent "accuses me of supporting the Obama agenda. Well, you bet I do."
Seals, making his second bid to unseat four-term Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, said his campaign has arranged joint voter-registration events and door-to-door canvassing with Obama's campaign. He also held a speech-watching event when Obama spoke at the Democratic convention.
"We have registered literally thousands of new voters. We're also seeing new contributions and new volunteers," said Seals, a black, 37-year-old business consultant running in Chicago's northern suburbs.
In other cases, Democrats aren't explicitly linking themselves to Obama, but they're campaigning on some of the same themes. Kubik said some GOP legislative candidates are being described by opponents as "Bush Republicans" and facing criticism -- "We would argue unfairly so," he said -- on national issues with little connection to the Illinois Legislature.
Even some Republicans hope to pick up a little of the Obama enthusiasm.
U.S. Senate candidate Steve Sauerberg's latest radio ad features Obama's voice saying, "The only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, D.C." before attacking incumbent Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin for his long Washington career. Durbin is one of Obama's most ardent supporters.
In Champaign County, Democratic Chairman Tony Fabri said candidates will feel "an additional wind at their back" from Obama but won't win solely on enthusiasm for him. There are no guarantees new Obama-focused voters will even stick around long enough to vote in mundane races for representative or county auditor, he acknowledged.
Illinois no longer has straight-ticket voting. People can't vote for all the candidates from one party with the push of a single button.
So Champaign County Republican Chairman Jason Barickman urges local candidates to get as much personal contact with voters as they can and encourage ticket-splitting. "At the end of the day, nothing works like, say, a county board candidate going out and meeting people," he said.
But will new Obama voters will come out to support other Democrats in the future?
Tari Renner, a political science professor at Illinois Wesleyan University and a former Democratic candidate for Congress, said a throng of new Obama voters will translate into more party leaders and candidates.
But that doesn't mean Democratic-leaning Illinois will be pushed even deeper into the blue column, Renner said. For one thing, he said, Illinois government is "a laughingstock," which will encourage people to shake things up at a statehouse run by Democrats.
Another factor could be voter disappointment.
If a wave of people turn out to support Obama but he loses, they may not be excited about future races. Or if he does win but fails to deliver on his promises, they could grow disillusioned about politics.
Seals said if he and Obama don't live up to their word, voters "would be right to be frustrated."
But even if Obama succeeds wildly, he added, Illinois Democrats can't expect to ride on his coattails.
"If we have a President Obama, Illinois will be that much more firmly in his camp, but it would be foolish to think voters won't hold you accountable," Seals said. "You have to earn a vote and you have to keep it, too."