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Economic Crisis Boosts Democrats In Congressional Races
WASHINGTON — The financial turmoil that has devastated the stock market is also battering Republicans in congressional races, giving Democrats a chance to topple GOP incumbents once considered safe and wrest seats in pivotal districts and states.
Voters' deepening anxiety about the economy following the enactment of a $700 billion financial industry bailout has created the conditions, just over three weeks from the Nov. 4 election, for an anti-Republican tide that could hand Democrats insurmountable majorities on both sides of the Capitol, according to lawmakers and strategists in both parties.
"It is hurting every Republican across the board. This environment has just become very toxic for us," said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio. "It could very easily be a wave" in Democrats' favor.
Majority Democrats who hold a 51-49 Senate majority now have solid leads in five races, realistic chances of picking up as many as nine seats and believe they are within reach of their longer-shot goal of capturing 60 seats.
North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole, once considered an improbable target in a solidly Republican state, now faces a real chance of losing to Democratic challenger Kay Hagan, a state senator. In Georgia, polls show Democrat Jim Martin, a former state representative, gaining against GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss.
Even the Senate's Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has lost ground against Democrat Bruce Lunsford, although both Chambliss and McConnell still lead in most public polls. McConnell wrote constituents a lengthy letter this past week defending his vote for the government rescue plan.
"It's not the bailout itself. It's the conditions leading up to needing the bailout and the difficulty in the economy that is sending voters in our direction," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., his party's Senate campaign committee chief.
In the House, Democrats appear likely to add as many as a dozen seats to their 235-199 majority and could pick up twice that depending on the strength of the emerging surge. Public polls and strategists indicate Democrats are well-positioned to pick off as many as 10 Republican incumbents _ in Alaska, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, New York, Ohio and Washington, among others _ and leading in efforts to shift more than a third of the 29 seats left open by GOP departures into the Democratic column.
Deepening economic worries have cost Republican presidential nominee John McCain ground at a crucial point in the race, and had the same impact on GOP candidates, said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, the GOP's House campaign chief.
"If anybody thinks this issue has hit each side equally just look at (McCain's) numbers," Cole said. "It's made a difficult situation much more challenging" for congressional Republicans.
Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the head of his party's House campaign committee, said the weakened state of the economy has boosted the public yearning for change stoked by Barack Obama's campaign "more-so today than even a month ago."
"We will, I'm confident to say, pick up seats in this next election. How many I think is still unknown," Van Hollen said on Friday, wary _ as he has been all year _ about inflating expectations for Democrats after their 30-seat sweep in 2006.
Republican Rep. Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia, however, hazarded a guess during a joint appearance with Van Hollen.
"You're going to see an election where we're going to lose double-digit seats in the House," said Davis, one of the GOP retirees whose seat is seen as likely to be won by a Democrat next month.
Republicans already were facing an uphill battle in congressional races this year. They started out at a numerical disadvantage, having to defend many more seats than Democrats because more of them were retiring. In the Senate, a quirk of the political calendar added to their challenge: Republicans are defending 23 seats this year and Democrats' 12. All 435 House seats _ including one vacancy _ are up for grabs.
Democrats have solid chances to win five Senate seats by unseating incumbent Sens. Ted Stevens in Alaska and John E. Sununu in New Hampshire, and capturing up-for-grabs seats in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. Polls indicate they have realistic shots at Sen. Norm Coleman in Minnesota, Dole in North Carolina and Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, and in a special election against Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi to serve out the remainder of retired Sen. Trent Lott's term.
Chambliss and McConnell would be icing on the cake.
The only real challenge Senate Democrats face is for the Louisiana seat now held by Sen. Mary L. Landrieu, facing Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy. Landrieu appears to be holding her own, say strategists in both parties.
"We could have an OK night or we could have a disastrous night _ it just depends on the next two or three weeks," said Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, the Senate GOP campaign chief.
With the economy proving a volatile issue, Ensign said he is telling Republican candidates to "just run as hard as you can. There are some things that are outside of your control, so just focus on what you can control."
In the House, 10 Republican incumbents are in danger and an additional dozen seats now held by departing GOP lawmakers are seen as highly competitive; 10 more GOP lawmakers are potentially at risk with small leads over their Democratic challengers. By contrast, Democrats are defending just eight incumbents against serious challenges _ Reps. Paul E. Kanjorski of Pennsylvania and Nick Lampson of Texas are regarded as the most endangered _ and one up-for-grabs seat, where Rep. Robert E. "Bud" Cramer of Alabama is retiring.
Republicans' challenges have been compounded by a huge fundraising disparity that has given Democrats far more money to spend on crucial TV advertising in the final weeks of the campaign. As of the end of August, House Democrats' campaign committee had $54 million in cash compared with Republicans' $14 million; the Senate Democratic campaign arm had $34 million and the Republicans' $27 million.
The financial turmoil has only added to Republicans' troubles, strategists say, by raising the profile of Bush _ who has spoken publicly on 22 of the past 27 days on the economic mess, at a time when GOP candidates most want to distance themselves from him. It also has eclipsed the issue of energy that many Republicans had believed would help them hold off Democrats in key races.
Still, voter sentiment on economic matters can be as volatile as the markets themselves.
"It's a horribly toxic environment, but we still have three weeks until Election Day," said Republican strategist Bob Stevenson. "To some degree, it will depend on the market itself, and what answers and solutions are offered by the individual candidates."
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Associated Press writers Laurie Kellman and Jennifer Loven contributed to this report.
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JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS | October 11, 2008 10:20 AM EST |