Obama Jumps Ahead In Missouri, North Dakota

Two new polls show the breadth of Barack Obama's recent surge of support in traditionally red states.

SurveyUSA finds Obama approaching a double-digit lead in Missouri, where McCain has held a solid advantage for much of the campaign. According to today's poll, Obama leads 51 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.3 percent margin of error. McCain led 48-46 in the previous SUSA poll from late September.

Meanwhile, in North Dakota, the Public Affairs Institute finds Obama slightly edging out McCain 45 percent to 43 percent.

Among voters who rank the economy as their top concern, 49 percent favor Obama, while 38 percent back McCain. The economy was far and away the most important national issue among voters, according to the poll, even though a majority regarded their own economic situation as "better off" or the "same" compared to a year ago.

Another troubling sign in the poll for McCain, who has styled himself as a maverick who is not a clone of President Bush: McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans.

Kos has some additional North Dakota analysis here.

In other battleground news, the latest Marist polls show Obama leading in Pennsylvania (53-41) and Ohio (49-44) -- both of those leads are about double the size of the Marist polls taken last month.

Comments

[kattie]

FOLKS DON'T GET COMPLACENT, THE ELECTION IS NOT A DONE DEAL YET, WE NEED TO WORK AS IF WE WERE 10 BEHIND ............FOLKS REMEMBER 3 WEEKS IN POLITIC IS AN ETERNITY.

[mrJJ]

ANALYSIS

We"ve seen the thread titles here on DU: Barack Obama leading by 10 in Colorado! By 8 in Missouri! By 8 in West Virginia, 17 in Oregon and 33 in New York!

Almost every time a blue state or swing state is polled lately, the result is very bad news for John McCain. And on the rare occasion that a red state is polled lately, the news gets worse for McCain. North Dakota is now in play, according to a new poll conducted by Minnesota State University Moorhead. More than in play, Obama is leading by 2 points. This comes a few days after Montana is shown with a very small 5 point lead for McCain. Could the Big Sky states be turning blue again?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7444810

[fieldon13]

I have said all along that the only part of Missouri that belongs to McCain is the "country first" meaning the rural parts that would never vote for a Democrat let alone a Black candidate no matter his policies. Nobody has polled the Black voters in Missouri, I say that because of all of the voters I have asked none have ever been contacted.

[rich misty]

I used to live and campaign in St Louis... I was up there early this spring visiting and made sure my old campaign team was still meeting and active. I heard from my brother in law there a few days ago that there are few McCain bumper stickers out compared to Obama visibility (hats, shirts, bumper stickers, flags) and that all the metropolitian areas are going heavy Obama.

[jcahill]

great post rich_misty

let's all remember to keep our focus
keep our poise
keep balance
stay humble like our candidate
volunteer any and every spare moment you can
hit a phone bank
grab an obama yard sign

talk up the strength of our side and ignore the other side (effective)
and most importantly
VOTE

[globalcitizenlinda]

I am praying for a win in Missouri and North Dakota - line up any other states.

The ultimate win would be that Obama carries Arizona (last I heard was a single-digit lead for McSame in AZ) and the icing would be to carry Alaska !!!!

[SaltySaltillo]

Arizona will be incredibly close, I think. McCain will probably win, but it would be humiliating for him to win his home state by 2 or 3 points.

[PDinCA]

Yup, Alaska is our final frontier. Go, AK!

[Passenger57]

McCain - that lone cartoon character at the beach,taking note of a shadow falling over him.
Obama - the massive wave that's casting the shadow.

[harriettubman]

If Democrats win, they will have to PROVE themselves. No more spending at will. They will have to knuckle down and show the American people that they know how to control spending.
1) Some programs will have to be cut and that's the bottom line.

2) They need to take the high road and not vote on any pay raises.

3) Investigate and punish those for lavish trips and Golden Parachutes. Even if what they did was legal, a strongly worded punishment needs to be handed down. No more freebies

4) Nancy Pelosi needs to earn her title. She hasn't done that yet. Her popularity is as high as Garfield's. What has this woman done?

5) Take responsibilty for mistakes. Barney Frank and Dodd are in the hotseat for the economic collapse and rightfully so.

All eyes will be on Democrats or they will be voted OUT in 4 years.

[SouthFloridaDem]

Haha -- that's funny. "No more spending at will, Democrats!" Ahem. Who was in charge the whole time the deficit ballooned? Methinks you're barking up the wrong party.

[armadillious2002]

The rethugs have been a total failure on every front. I am absolutely convinced that my dog Gizmo would have done a better job with the economy and foreign policy. No way possible that he would have done any worse, and I am ever more convinced that the typical bush supporter is a sociopath and in need of treatment.

[Kuroneko]

You mean Dems have to cut the program like hiring Blackwater? That's tough.

[MrEguy]

That's my friend Peaches Johnson in the photo with this article. Go Peaches!!

[DevRock]

The election is already over. The only thing to wait for now is just how big of a landslide this election is going to be for Obama. Some of you say things tighten up, but NATIONALLY, Obama is up by at least 10 points. NO ONE HAS EVER WON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WHEN TRAILING BY THIS MARGIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME BEFORE. besides, look at how fast the numbers are changing in his favor. If they flip-flop in North Dakota this quickly, imagine what's happening in the rest of the country. Election night is going to be an embarrassment for McCain and his campaign cronies.

It's about time the GOP ate this much crow.

[MargaretO]

Listen. Don't get too cocky. Work like we're behind. I don't trust the Repubs and it's important to remain vigilant and get everyone out to vote. Not just registered, but out to vote.

[Intelligence-08]

I completely agree. An army of voters need to actually vote for Obama on election day to make this dream a reality.

[JJ30]

AMEN! AMEN! AMEN!

[drkazmd65]

That's what they want us to start thinking. IF we start thinking, and acting, like the win is going to happen without a hitch - THEN a complacent subset of us stay at home and dont' vote.

It is only IF the numbers of voters can be kept down that the Republicans have a real chance at even making this close.

I won't be comfortable with a lead, until it is the day AFTER the votes have been tabulated, the Electoral College has been totaled, AND Obama has >greater than the number of electoral votes to win.

Then,... I'll think about starting to relax a bit about this election.

[Passenger57]

Oh,no....the Pubs are gearing up their voter purge lists,their busted machines to send to poor Black Democratic areas,to make the lines unbearably long ,their list of polling places that have "moved" for no good reason,their need to see 25 pieces of ID before they let someone vote,their machines that register a vote for McCain although the voter chose Obama,their....

[nodoginthishunt]

Just released TIPP tracking poll has O+2 nationally among LV's with 13% undecided. A statistical tie! O just can't close the deal, and now it's beginning to look like he won't, which really is surprising given the economy, Bush approval rating, right-track/wrong-track numbers, and Palin.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=308790300872940

FYI, TIPP was the most accurate daily tracking poll in 2004.

[SoCalNick]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[nodoginthishunt]

You can bet O's people are taking notice.

[Pachete]

So we should trust TIPP tracking over all the daily tracking polls coming out the past 2 weeks that show obama up at an average of 7 points some breaking double digits?

Dont forget to vote people

[sagmann]

You know there is a wind of debacle in the air when no troll dare posting anymore.

[Publictrust]

People of Amerika, Its time for you to realize that the Socialist Part has taken over the Banks of the world! Obama is set to become the world leader we have all been waiting for. He will unite us into the next age of enlitenment. and a one world government. All of your stock at this very moment is being sold to foriegn governments at rock bottom prices. These governments are those who are communists, Islamist, Muslim, Marxist and Socialist. They are the large cash cows of foriegn oil countries who bankrupt the world and have now taken control. Your panic driven sell out dropped megacorporations and world bank values some to 30 or 40% to as much as 60 to 70% percent of their value. You have lost your freedom and your free will as a Democratic people as you now know it! Hey, Just Kidding!!! Maybe?

[Passenger57]

You think any rich Republicans brought up any of that cheap stock? Naaahhh....you think Daddy Bush didn't buy up some cheap stocks? 'Course not...

[DaOne]

When Mo, Oh. and Fla are leaning O, I can sleep a lot better.

21 days of hard work my friends but I am feeling better than I have in eight years...........

Obama 08-16

[Pachete]

Missouri
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mo/missouri_mccain_vs_obama-545.html

Ohio
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

Florida
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

Missouri is only slight lead and only for the past week or so. Ohio is a bit stronger but still going to be a fight for a Obama. Florida is quickly becoming impossible for McCain to overcome.

[dakotaharp]

Grew up in Mandan North Dakota and am very proud of the fact that the locals refused to buy into McCains b.s. Let me tell you something, it`s still the wild west in those parts and it is VERY rednecky. The fact that a black man is running for and leading the race is amazing. Just shows that fool me once ah shame on ah you ..fool me twice and I fooled around and fell in love....thanks North Dakota.

[LadyS]

I can verify everything dakotaharp has said. I, too, grew up in Mandan.

Hi dakotaharp!

[ladydriver]

The polls are encouraging, but let's please remember what happened in the last two elections. The ONLY way to be sure that the RNC/Rovians cannot steal another one from the American people is to work harder and make this one a landslide.

Use the tools on the Obama website, but also talk to everyone you encounter. Don't overlook family members, friends, co-workers! Wear a button or a hat to start conversations, and be informed about the facts of Obama's policy positions and about the lies being propagated by the McCain/Palin campaign. Information is our most effective tool.

Stay positive! Keep working. Time is short and this is too important. YES WE CAN. We MUST!

[Parisian]

For my American friends: the "wish we can vote in your election but cannot" countries of Europe earnestly hope Obama/Biden are successful. In the last all-European poll on your election: France, Italy, Germany, Spain, England, Belgium are all VERY VERY BLUE.

[JohnnyKay]

It seemsw the only thing left is for McCain admit he's leaving Cindy for Sarah, and her last baby is his.

At least that would be believable coming from McCain, but not one other word coming from his lips and that snaking, darting tongue.

Talk about hitching one's breath.