Obama Jumps Ahead In Missouri, North Dakota

Two new polls show the breadth of Barack Obama's recent surge of support in traditionally red states.

SurveyUSA finds Obama approaching a double-digit lead in Missouri, where McCain has held a solid advantage for much of the campaign. According to today's poll, Obama leads 51 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.3 percent margin of error. McCain led 48-46 in the previous SUSA poll from late September.

Meanwhile, in North Dakota, the Public Affairs Institute finds Obama slightly edging out McCain 45 percent to 43 percent.

Among voters who rank the economy as their top concern, 49 percent favor Obama, while 38 percent back McCain. The economy was far and away the most important national issue among voters, according to the poll, even though a majority regarded their own economic situation as "better off" or the "same" compared to a year ago.

Another troubling sign in the poll for McCain, who has styled himself as a maverick who is not a clone of President Bush: McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans.

Kos has some additional North Dakota analysis here.

In other battleground news, the latest Marist polls show Obama leading in Pennsylvania (53-41) and Ohio (49-44) -- both of those leads are about double the size of the Marist polls taken last month.

Comments

[Ranta]

Obama had pretty much pulled out of North Dakota. He may have to get a few more boots on the ground there.

[GuyFawkes]

Not worth it. 3 EV? Will drain his resources to take more important states like Co, VA, Ohio, and FL.

[lohy]

OMG.....I'­m keeping hope alive....W­e need this election so badly....

[MikaS]

Last Saturday my husband and I got up early, took our son to his grandmothers and drove for three and a half hours to Missouri to campaign for Obama. We were thrilled and humbled to be able to help out where it might make a difference. We live in the political vacuum that is Oklahoma. We canvassed in a very conservative area of Missouri and the canvass was promising. Most of the doors we knocked on went unanswered so we left fliers, but of the people we found home, Obama came out slightly ahead. We're looking forward to helping every weekend until the election. We were exhausted when we got home but we were humbled by our experience and proud to be a part of this historical election.

[rukiddingmerightnow]

Thank you!!

[antmuk]

Good work! I feel the same about Virginia. I have been canvassing here since the primaries and it's amazing how many people are supporting Obama. I think VA is going to go blue!!

[libratine]

Thank you Thank you!!!!! Let's hear it for community organizers and the grass roots efforts of those in the field!!!! (It is also quite telling that McCain cannot say the same .) Thanks again and say a special hello to grandma from Northern California!!!! We are rooting for you!!!

[Cheryllou]

Thank you.

[SCVADem]

Thank you!

[MikaS]

It was our pleasure. I feel sort of selfish in going to MO, we have never felt part of the process in OK and it is a great feeling to help out in a state where we could make a difference. To all the great people of Missouri out in Huffpo land, your state is full of wonderful people. We even had a couple of republicans thank us for spending time in their state. To anyone who lives in a solidly red or blue state, if you live within a few hours from a swing state it's a great experience to canvass for Obama.

[MrsMissouri]

Thank you, Oklahoma from a Nixa, MO campaign office volunteer! Believe me, we're as outnumbered here in SW MO as you are in Oklahoma . . . or maybe not. Many lights have been hidden under bushels for years and just now having the courage to get up, stand up, and shine. When people think, Democrats win! We just all make certain the turn-out materializes November 4.

[BluesDogLefty]

I will not rest until Obama wins.

But this is SO over.

[NotMcCain]

Unfortunately, its not over. McCain is like a cornered animal--more desperate and nasty than ever.

These numbers make me so hopeful, but in politics 3 weeks is a long, long time.

(And, thanks again, Iowans! You started the process, and helped restore my faith in this country!

[Diogenis]

a a cornered animal....­will ultimately attack !

[BluesDogLefty]

I agree.

We all must keep our eye on the ball.

But he is more like an animal in a trap--his own.

[Independent-for-Obama]

How many of these polls are calling people who think they are registered but have been illegally purged by the Republicans?

[GolfingDevil05]

That's the scary part. No one knows the answer to that question. I'm lucky to be in state (CA) where even 10,000 purged votes won't sway the difference, as Obama's currently up by 12-15% in every poll. I get to vote on Saturday, and I'm pretty sure that the only exciting races in CA will be for the ballot initiatives. But in battleground states, like CO, NC, IN, and OH? Who knows which way those will go with just a few thousand people tossed?

That's why it's imperative that Democrats show up in record numbers this year. The margin has to be so overwhelming that it can't be stolen without everyone knowing that is what happened. Don't be lazy or complacent. This country can't afford an assumed victory that turns into a defeat.

[patianneb]

G0d bless Americans

[hmmmmmer]

I am hoping the polls are close to the truth about likely voters and that in the long run they haven't really been able to count all the people that are actually going to vote for Obama, newly registered and voters coming back to the Democrats, and that in the end it will be so lopsided the Republicans will have to hang their heads in shame.

[DeeDeeDaGumby]

do not forget polls can not call cell phone users, so how real can all of these polls be?

[nibblybits]

Don't get overconfident. Hubris brings down kings.

[gnarlstone]

I was born and raised in Missouri, and know they can wake up to the facts and elect Obama!

Love to all you Show Me folks!

Brad in Chicago

[Dystopic]

Hey, we threw Jim Talent out for Claire, and could not be happier. Now for the 2 Blunts... one in washington & the gov

[Ozarks]

Gov Blunt is not running for reelection. Apparently his emails and attempts to stiff people's attempts to see them , like Palin, is not working and he figured he was toast.

[Jules1]

It will be a landslide for Obama, sweet! My son was a republican and switched to Obama. He said he will never vote Republican again. People are burning McCain/Palin signs inOregon, Washington, Missouri, Ohio so far, there will be more, that is what happens when you preach hate like they did and still do by their flyers with sleazy messages on them......­..........­........I am so proud of America and Americans now, the haters are a small blot on a united America, all races, all religions, we are united.

[marquitin]

Burning other people's signs is not a good sign, no matter who does it.

[tommyG65]

The real Barack Obama exposed-What a Man



http://thebruceblog.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/who-is-barack-obama-his-past-finally-exposed/

[judyc]

I heard that story before--nice.

[marquitin]

Has it been verified?

[RobinSeattle]

Boy, this Obama thing is positively becoming a tsunami.

The other thing is that Obama's overall lead is bigger than the percentage of undecideds, which means that McCain does not have much of a bench in terms of potential votes that are still out there for him. This may be the biggest popular vote percentage landslide since 1972.

[independent32955]

I'm FOR Obama, but I am NOT believing these poll results.

If I'm wrong, that's great, McCain will be the NEW Bob Dole, or the GOP version of Mondale vs. Reagan. If that happens, the GOP might actually have to go back and think about what it is they believe in (if anything), but for now, I am finding it difficult to believe that the Show Me State is on the side of Obama.

[milo h minderbinder]

You guys are cherry picking polls again.

Sure, Obama seems to be improving in those states.

But to declare "jumping ahead" in ND because of ONE poll when he has lagged in most polls there? Come on. You guys are just doing the same thing Drudge is, just leaning the other way.

Even fivethirtyeight only has the chance of Obama taking ND at 19%.

[Cheryllou]

Keep hope alive, never give up till the bitter end! We know, don't worry.

[rich3324]

I think ND is a loss, but Missouri is interesting since Bush won it by 7 points in 2004.

[GuyFawkes]

I agree. I'd like to see where the trends are after a few more polls before I start changing the colors.

[iPolitics]

1. Obama doesn't need North Dakota, but it's a shocking poll. Shocking.

2. The Missouri # is huge. We're talking 340+ electoral votes

[theone718]

They are playing into the narrative of O's lead around the country increasing, let it go dude your complaining won't change much. THAT ONE 08

[milo h minderbinder]

But they shouldn't be trying to support a "narrative", they should just be frank about the numbers.

Obama IS making many gains around the country. That makes it seem even more silly to selectively report polls - there's no reason to try and manipulate things to make Obama's lead seem bigger than it is, he's doing very well when you look at the real numbers.

[kcmookie]

Thank God! I hope we come around. I live in Mo and have had an Obama sign in my yard since this Summer. Both my neighbors on either side were so excited to see I was for Obama, and they are retirees. Unfortunately a couple of McCain signs went up down the street, so I went back to being disgusted with my own State.

I am glad to see some common sense finally coming around, it sucks to be one of the smart ones in a village of idiots....­..

[furryone]

As a former resident of KCMO, I almost cried when I saw the poll on MO from SUSA! I always knew most Missourians are good, decent people (and Kansas Citians are truly the nicest people in the country)..­.come on and make me proud! (ps, go out there and help win your state for the GE like you did for the Primary, Claire!)

[kcmookie]

I agree, most are decent. Unfortunately their are also quite a few of the "Ignorant & Proud of it", and others who have totally swallowed the Dems=Taxes mantra that has been spouted since Reagan.

Personally I am an Independent who will forever vote for "The Smart Guy", whoever that may be. This year is no contest.

Obama 08!

[omenapt]

Ward Parkway is virtually littered with OBAMA signs,, I mean , you are talkin about the old mansions the have been the bastions of old money forever in this town.. I am not sure the residents themsleves put them out or simply the dying, old doyennes didnt care to notice what was going on in their front yards!

[hardesty]

I was recently in the Plaza area and was astounded at the number of Obama signs. I'm talking from the Plaza area to State Line. I'm stuck in red Kansas but I am hopeful that some day....