Pakistan Is "On The Edge," Says New Intelligence Report

WASHINGTON -- A growing al Qaida-backed insurgency, combined with the Pakistani army's reluctance to launch an all-out crackdown, political infighting and energy and food shortages are plunging America's key ally in the war on terror deeper into turmoil and violence, says a soon-to-be completed U.S. intelligence assessment.

A U.S. official who participated in drafting the top secret National Intelligence Estimate said it portrays the situation in Pakistan as "very bad." Another official called the draft "very bleak," and said it describes Pakistan as being "on the edge."

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[TRIATHLON]

PAKISTAN ATTACK IN PROGRESS! (END PART)


This attack once again is being made by at least the standard (2) two Predator drone formation, (1) one surveillance the other a weapons platform air to surface missile firing drone under attack formation under the firing command of the (JSOC/CIA/RSO/IC) in Bagrum Air Force Base in Afghanistan, and possibly more. Once again the attack was made into Southern Waziristan, upon the village of Sam, two missiles struck the village community, casualties can not be reached as this appears to be an extended day long attack in progress, the missiles stuck the compound and house of Bitullah Mehsud, the head of Pakistan"s pro-Taliban movement.

Again, this appears to be an extended day long attack upon Pakistani Territory.

[haval2]

that comes as bad news...mc cain wants us to stay in iraq for 100 years despite the surge! is this one of the countries sarah can identify on a blank map...does johnny have the name of new head of the country in his memory? does he know that this is where we should have been all along? top al queda personnel are leaving iraq for afghanistan? how many more tours of duty for our brave soldiers?

[Durango]

Pakistan is a large and very complicated country. It is not all one thing or another.

Having al Qaida clones take over is highly unlikely. If Pakistan descends into chaos it is more likely that the military will stage another coup and overthrow the government.

The radicals in the tribal areas are almost as foreign to the mainstream Pakistanis as they would be to us. They are very unlikely to take power in any way shape or form. I believe that they did not even win office in the tribal areas in the recent election.

Which is not to say they can't seriously damage Pakistan and cause plenty of grief and anger.

It is obvious that elements in the Pakistani military and intelligence services have been funding and cooperating with the Taliban and their allies in Afghanistan. How deep that goes is anyone's guess.

But if the civilian government can hold out until Obama takes office there might be a very workable compromise reached that could bring peace to the region.

If we could replace intelligence and good judgment with the abject stupidity that has been the basis of our foreign policy for the past 7 years or so . . . it might go a long way towards settling problems in the area.

After all, if you were in charge of Pakistan who would you rather be an ally with,: a rational United States of America with reinvigorated economic power, or Osama Bin Ladin?

The choice is pretty simple

[hortonhearsawho]

Can sarah see Pakistan from...

[Blue in NH]

Why should they be any different than the rest of us. Eight years of Bush and Cheney have indeed created a "new world order." It's called collapse.

[kapo]

America has quietly been acting as stagemaster for political developments in Pakistan and the CIA now sees the country as 'on the edge'. The intervention in Somalia with Ethiopians doing the leg work has resulted in a disaster for Somalis and a huge piracy problem. The US backed regime Georgia bit off more than it could chew and now has indigestion. Iraq, Afghanistan.... even Iran's nuclear program was started under the Shah with US approval. Sometimes I wonder whether, on balance, the actions of the government in its relations with other countries have been a net benefit to America. Just one example:- the Vietnamese communists have more to fear from China than the US does and wanted help from America early on. They had to kill thousands of American troops before they could get even normal relations. Anyway, as Omar the tentmaker was misquoted as saying, "The moving hand writes, and having writ, moves on."

[hortonhearsawho]

Heck, send in the Palins....

[RobinSeattle]

I would urge everyone to look at these intelligence estimates with some reservations:

Here is one sample from a CIA study as an illustration:

Washington D.C., October 26, 2006 - A CIA panel of experts concluded in 1997 that North Korea was likely to collapse within five years, according to declassified documents posted today on the Web by the National Security Archive. This "Endgame" exercise of former U.S. policymakers, intelligence officers and outsider experts warned that the North Korean regime could not remain "viable for the long term," with the majority doubting the "current, deteriorating status could persist beyond five years." Citing the "steady, seemingly irreversible economic degradation in the North," the panel concluded that "the current situation in North Korea appears beyond corrective actions that do not fundamentally threaten the regime's viability."
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB205/index.htm

As Maxwell Smart was fond of saying, "missed it by THAT much."

For CYA reasons, these intelligence estimates often tend to be a little jumpy. While I don't want to trivialize what is going on in Pakistan, we need to remain calm and rational on the issue.

[yankee452]

great!!

[ralph10]

Just saw where they killed a #2 Al Queda In Iraq. How many does this make?

[gcallaghan]

You mean for this week?

[ILibertine]

The issue of Iraq may be backburner for some considering economic news, yet this region is going to keep rearing its troubled head in historic confirmation that the Iraq misadventure was a horrendous distraction from our true priority in the region, i.e. stabilizing Afghanistan. We've squandered so much of our legitimacy, at a high price, to the end of increasing instability that it might seem the Bush administration has been our worst enemy. It is appearing as if there is a three or four-stage theatre of unrest from Iraq and Iran to Afghanistan and Pakistan. It will take a very level-headed leader capable of incorporating some international consensus to counteract radical opportunism that is the current benefactor of our foreign policy in the region. I do not believe other than securing a lid on a constantly seething pot will be possible in most of this region for generations, however. You cannot burn the poppies and win popular support. Perhaps China and India will have to embark upon a policy of exporting jobs to this region - that of course would require some kind of incentive - such as high tariffs.

[sagmann]

October surprise?

[Krikkit]

I predicted this coming several years ago after reading in the NY Times that Musharraf had signed an agreement with tribal warlords giving them semi-autonomy. My thinking at the time was "Musharraf is a dictator -- our dictator, but a dictator none the less. Dictators don't just give power away." Giving power away was a clear signal that Musharraf was losing control in Afghanistan, to people who sympathize and aid al qaeda in the mountainous border regions. The events that have unfolded since then all point in the same direction. Al Qaeda is gaining a new foothold in a country that possesses nukes.

What is our government doing to make sure those nukes are secure, that they cannot fall into the hands of the Taliban or other radical Islamist factions within Pakistan's borders? If Islamists gain control of Pakistan's government they also get control of those nukes, so what might happen? A nuclear war with India? This is some serious shiate.

[ToKinCoNseRvaTive]

The Pakistani government has NEVER had control of the tribal areas. Musharraf couldn't give away what he never had.

[MajorKong]

Oh well, it's not like they have nukes or anything. Oh wait.......

[sparkey]

Cheney's puppet better hurry. Time's running out for him to declare martial law and cancel the election till the world crises is over.