Barack Obama has a double-digit lead over John McCain in the latest Pew poll, 52 percent to 38 percent with registered voters, and 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters. The Democratic candidate has made particular strides on national security and expanded his lead on the economy. Meanwhile, doubts about McCain's campaign, age, and judgment are growing.
Also, the age factor has become a problem for McCain: the number of likely voters who think that McCain is too old increased from 23% in early September to 34% in mid-October.
One surprising result that might reflect growing voter dissatisfaction with negative attacks: McCain's campaign was given a lower grade than the Bush 2000 campaign, which benefited from scurrilous innuendo in South Carolina about McCain's adopted daughter, and the Bush 2004 campaign, which benefited from the Swift Boat Veterans for America's ads against John Kerry:
Obama's strong showing in the current poll reflects greater confidence in the Democratic candidate personally. More voters see him as "well-qualified" and "down-to-earth" than did so a month ago. Obama also is inspiring more confidence on several key issues, including Iraq and terrorism, than he did before the debates. Most important, Obama now leads McCain as the candidate best able to improve economic conditions by a wider margin (53% to 32%).
Obama's gains notwithstanding, a widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race at this point. Many more voters express doubts about McCain's judgment than about Obama's: 41% see McCain as "having poor judgment," while just 29% say that this trait describes Obama. Fewer voters also view McCain as inspiring than did so in mid-September (37% now, 43% then). By contrast, 71% of voters continue to think of Obama as inspiring.
In addition, Sarah Palin appears to be a continuing - if not an increasing - drag on the GOP ticket. Currently, 49% of voters express an unfavorable opinion of Palin, while 44% have a favorable view. In mid-September, favorable opinions of Palin outnumbered negative ones by 54% to 32%. Women, especially women under age 50, have become increasingly critical of Palin: 60% now express an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 36% in mid-September. Notably, opinions of Palin have a greater impact on voting intentions than do opinions of Joe Biden, Obama's running mate.