AP Poll That Shows Tightening Race Is Flawed

AP/AmericaBlog:

A new poll was released earlier today by the Associated Press that seemed to make imply that the race was tightening on a national scale. The Associated Press said:

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

AmericaBlog looked over the methodology, however, and a found that the poll skewed far too heavily in favor of Evangelical Christians. Click here for the complete breakdown:

The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.

Read the whole story: AP/AmericaBlog

Comments

[BamaGrl9000]

when im feelin down about a stupid pol or something i iike to watch this.
NEVER GONNA GIVE YOU UP

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=Yu_moia-oVI

[bola47]

thanks for the rickroll. haven't had one in a while.

[samuelberg]

rickrolls are as old as Biden's dentures.

[Knowitall]

Why?

[LoveAndProtectAnimals]

I definitely think this is ridiculous, but at the same time, I can't be upset. The closer we think the race is, the harder we will work. In some sick way, I almost feel as though polls like this will help us elect Obama because it keeps us on our toes - whether accurate or not. The fear of it being even semi-accurate is enough to make me want to fight harder to get the vote out. So, I don't condone the inaccurate polling, but I also cannot be upset about it since I think it will help a bit in the end.

[helenwheels]

Well said! I was freaked out about this poll so very happy to see this story. I like your handle, by the way. Animal lovers ROCK. (I myself work for a big animal rights organization & love it)

[RedKnuckles]

Agreed...this poll, bogus as it is, will serve to remind us all that we need to sprint to the end and not let up. Our paper here, the Oregonian, featured an article on page 2 about it, also implying that the race is tight. What idiots.

[deepfreezevideo]

When an organization such as The Associated Press starts skewing raw statistics in this manner it is time to review their validity as a news outlet altogether.
We may as well be watching Soviet crop reports on Vremya.

[Grunty1]

AP fabricates a poll by doulbing the GOP's core constituency, and McCain STILL loses!

[deepfreezevideo]

Yes, so to put an even FINER point on things, we are watching 1972 crop reports on Soviet Vremya.
That was the first year that Soviet crops failed so badly that they started importing grain from American farmers, and yet the nightly news continued to announce that Soviet crop output was at record levels.
It's official, Baghdad Bob is running The Associated Press.
The very core organs of information that drive American awareness of the world around them
are now being manipulated to the whims of the power elite.

[philosopherkingtomas]

contact rachel on this "poll"

msnbc.comnbc.com

get out the vote democrats!

[philosopherkingtomas]

thou shalt not lie AP !
tell the McCain-Palin-cheney idiots what they want to believe, racists, xenophobes, dangerous, rednecks..

[LemonMeringue]

They want us to believe the race is close because of this:

The GOP is suppressing the Democratic vote, particularly the AA vote, and particularly in battleground states.

Rachel Maddow and Bobby Kennedy Jr. talk about voter suppression: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27313887#27313887

and Kennedy's article in Rolling Stone that Rachel says is required reading for her viewers: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/23638322/block_the_vote

[old lady]

Repeat after me... the Emperor IS NOT wearing clothes.

[thegreatgiginthesky]

Ohh that evil liberal media.

[grammies]

These kind of numbers just make us Obama/Biden supporters work harder!

[Shashi0224]

The AP owes me one night's sleep!!

[siciliabel]

Those who would seek to deceive with words are liars, those who would seek to deceive with numbers are statisticians--or in this case, AP pollsters.

[alvdh1]

There have been no new presidential polls released for Arizona since 9/28/2008. The electoral map, I guess, is embarrasing enough for John without heaping on anymore missery.

[KathyinCT]

HELP -- Who knows how to get to AOL NEWS execs?

AOL has posted the AP POLL as their LEAD STORY on the opening page of the site. TODAY!!! So any independent voter who logs in sees it and thinks momentum is shifting.

HOW DO WE FIGHT AP AND AOL TO TAKE THIS STORY DOWN????

The AOL story, if anyone clicks through to it, buries the fact that every other poll has Obama up by 6 to 9 to 12 points. That info is about 10 paragraphs down and the story purports to explain why McCain has "MOVED UP" so dramatically.

THIS COULD SWAY SOME DUMB AOL READERS. (do not ask me why I even use AOL -- it's a long story and starts with my husband . . . . .)

HOW DO WE GET TO THEM??? Can someone at Huffington Post take this on?? Quickly??? Get a reporter to call AOL. HELP!!

[kcmookie]

Kathy, AOL has been in the tank for McCain for a long time, just ignore it. All you have to do is look at past polls on AOL to see what the dimwits on AOL already believe. No biggy, a lot of "kids" on AOL.

[alvdh1]

Ron Fournier who is an unabashed die hard Republican probably ordered the evangelical skew to see if it would slip under the radar. I sent AP an email casitgating them for their flawed methodology. It is abundantly clear that the poll is flawed in light of the spate of new polls out this morning on Real Clear Politics that are running 11 points higher for Obama. 10/23/2008

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby National Obama 52 McCain 40
Big Ten Battleground Ohio Obama 53 McCain 41
Quinnipiac Ohio Obama 52 McCain 38
Big Ten Battleground Indiana Obama 51 McCain 41
Big Ten Battleground Michigan Obama 56 McCain 36