AP Poll That Shows Tightening Race Is Flawed

AP/AmericaBlog:

A new poll was released earlier today by the Associated Press that seemed to make imply that the race was tightening on a national scale. The Associated Press said:

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

AmericaBlog looked over the methodology, however, and a found that the poll skewed far too heavily in favor of Evangelical Christians. Click here for the complete breakdown:

The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.

Read the whole story: AP/AmericaBlog

Comments

[SoCalAmerican]

Back in college, we would reference AP articles all the time (being a political science major), but maybe its because over time you grow out of ignorance so now...I look at the AP and think to myself...

....is that why my research papers barley pulled a low A???

I don't trust the AP as I once did.

[SwingVoter]

Read the 26 page internal data, simple tables--it is bad news for John McCain.
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

[fiorastar]

The problem? AP

However...­all of this is not just some exercise in whining or sore loser(ness?).

This is part of a game of chess Karl Rove has been planning for years. Please do not get complacent. These attacks are very specifically and relentlessly working on the psychology of American voters.

A carefully planned attack on Obama's credibility, an attack on the integrity of DEMOCRATIC voters , and clear efforts to rile the fear and loathing of the worst racist sentiments well as torise the sexual desire of men who spend a lot of time with their hands in their pants--ALL of this is two things:

1) Possibly suppress the vote enough that it comes out close and the Republican election theft machine can declare a "win" in the same ways they have done three times (yes, 2006 was also "stolen"--we lost a HUGE majority that would have given Democrats true power and "gained" a tiny majority that allowed Republicans to continue to advance any destructive legislation they wanted while blaming it on the Dems).
2) If that doesn't work and the vote overwhelms their efforts, draw into question the integrity of the Democratic win, the Democratic candidate himself (birth certificate anyone?), and the Americanism of any Democrat anywhere. Can you say either legal battles or police state?

Limbaugh has been saying these very things all day. He just doesn't link them all together. He doesn't have to if you understand psychology on any level.

[evgolightly]

Great post.

This election has brought all the Republican ugliness out in plain view.

[Ramirez]

This leads us to the long-term Democratic Party plan.

The Democratic plan is to undermine public confidence in the electoral system. By doing this any Republican victory will be considered "stolen" or "illegitimate" regardless of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. This keeps the Democrat base in a permanent state of anger and unrest and destroys any chance a Republican leadership would have of uniting the country.

Unfortunately, because of this long-term strategy this time a Republican victory over Obama will result in massive rioting, civil unrest, and probable loss of life. An Obama victory will still result in isolated celebratory rioting similar to a Super Bowl victory, but it will be nothing like the paralyzing strife that will occur with a Mccain win.

These are ugly times.

[fiorastar]

You are proving my point. The classic Rovian "playground bully" move is to try to pin on the opposing side what your side is already doing or setting up to do.

The 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen by the Karl Rove machine. www.gregpalast.com
www.blackboxvoting.com
www.truthout.com

If you've got "overwhelming evidence to the contrary",give one credible source.

The electronic machines in 2004 that mysteriously had Democratic votes change to Republican votes --but never, in one instance, went the other way, were only one of several methods.

The Democrats have been trying to get new, verifiable, standardized voting systems in place to IMPROVE election integrity ever since 2000, with Republicans standing in the way at every turn.

This stuff about "massive rioting, civil unrest, and loss of life" is something I've been hearing on the Right Wingnut shows this week-SWAT teams in riot gear may instigate a riot. It's been used before, and the entire Palin hate rally rhetoric has been designed to incite "Joe Six Pack" voters to a frothing frenzy.

Obama and his supporters have kept a cool head even when people are screaming that they are "anti-American terrorists". There is a Martin Luther King-like quality to the determination. I see no evidence of a violent riot--unless people are attacked with tear gas and tasers. THAT I've seen very recently--outside the Republican Convention.

These are only "ugly times" if you and those like you decide to BE ugly.

[folksonomy]

All the polls in the world will not do anything for the outcome on November 4. It's making sure everything at the polling places are well-staffed with volunteers and precinct leaders.

Do your part...get involved and volunteer. I am this weekend for Nevada voters for Obama/Biden.

[nodoginthishunt]

PA is the key and remember what the dem James Carville said: PA = Pittsburgh + Alabama + Philadelphia. The dems Rendell and Murtha know this, and O better learn it fast.

[BamaGrl9000]

i dont get it. and im from alabama.

[nodoginthishunt]

Politically, PA is Pittsburgh in the west, Alabama in the middle, and Philadelphia in the east.

[Countdown09]

I have two words for anyone prematurely celebrating - "Florida 2004". The republicans are not going down this easy, I suspect they're working on how to steal this election will it be PA this election?

[nethinde]

Exactly - they may be buying polls to show a close race, then steal the election through fraud

[PizzaGuy1]

Would not doubt it.

http://latenightpizzas.wordpress.com

The First Law of Democracy
"A voter may not injure the country, or through inaction, allow the country to come to harm".

[DanteLabon]

What do you expect from the (ahem).. LEFT WING media? Even FOX news has Obama ahead by 9 points. Sounds like the AP is getting ready for a stolen election. The good news is that Obama has the best lawyers in the country waiting in the wings for election day...hope­fully he won't cave in like Gore did.

[Clayton139]

Right !

[jnik]

Or like Kerry did!
Gore and Kerry both knew about the Repigs' theft tactics, but did nothing about it.
Obama's campaign is the first to actually fight it.

[JayeSF]

Let's see....thr­ee polls released in the last 24 hrs. put Obama's lead in double digits....­one other one puts it a 7-8 pts.

So, here's a poll which puts it at 1 Point ?

This....my daughter taught me this.... because I guess now in HS math they take Statisitics & Probabilit­y...funny, we never had that...we just ended at Calculus..­...all of which I thankfully forgot after 2 months....

anyway, I digress...­.THIS...is what is called...a­n outlier...

....at best.

It may be purposely skewed as the article suggests, but it is at least an outlier...­.meaning, not worth much at all.....ce­rtainly not worth spending any further time thinking about it that we all already have.

[rowzeer]

Please the only one's who really want McCain in power is the extreme right and Al Qaeda.

Al Qaeda wants us to stay in Iraq and Afghanistan because they can drain our blood and our treasury like they did to Russia while they regroup in Pakistan and McCain is they're best hope for that to happen

[hortonhearsawho]

John looks so "Weekend at Bernies".

[rowzeer]

They're just saying its close so when they steal the election McCain's win seems plausible

[ladybug7]

Everyone need to get out and vote. Vote early if possible or by mail. There will be record turnouts for this election and on Nov 4 the polls will be swamped. Also the repugs will be doing everything they can to slow the process to try and discourage voters. Don't let them! Take it from a Floridian.­....

[DanteLabon]

Also, DON'T use a provisional ballot. Most are thrown away. Old 2000 trick.

[ocalasatpro]

My wife and I are poll watchers in FL this year. Last night we had a training meeting. EVERYBODY there was very rattled about this topic, and more so after we told the group about our Obama bumper stickers being stolen right off the cars in our driveway the night before.

For Florida's self-respect I hope this turns out right this year. Enough with the corrupt elections already.

[jorge4u]

Why do the right-win wackos are so concerned about Mickey Mouse voting? It is not like we'd getting another Disney character become President. We already have Goofy in the White House.

[ocalasatpro]

Dumbo & Goofy run the show.

[jorge4u]

My bad. You right. I forgot Dumbo.

[BamaGrl9000]

If someone wants to register as micky mouse he should be abel to vote as micky mouse!

[NTO08]

Gallup has a poll that proves what I have been saying for ages: the youth vote just isn't going to matter this year, even if they turn out in record numbers, and the data says they simply won't...:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111310/Young-Voters-Favor-Obama-How-Many-Will-Vote.aspx

[ocalasatpro]

Sorry, but Gallup polls don't "prove" anything. All you need to do is look around. The youth vote is alive and well. There are many reasons why polls are like they are, starting and ending with the almighty dollar and the corporate will. Most pollsters do not release methodology. Do you know why? Take a good guess...

[PizzaGuy1]

Incorrect. The youth vote is energized as to the ACT OF VOTING FOR OBAMA. Not to say "Isn't it cool, I voted for Barack", but to experience the feeling of the physical act of PUSHING THE LEVER, or marking the square, or punching the chad, or whatever they do. It's the act of doing it that they're looking to feel good about, more so in this election than in any other. Obama has engendered this type of reaction to voting for him.

How do I know? I'LL FEEL IT MYSELF!!!!!!!! (Oh, and I asked a lot of young voters too.....)

http://latenightpizzas.wordpress.com

The First Law of Democracy
"A voter may not injure the country, or through inaction, allow the country to come to harm".

[NTO08]

Why do I keep hearing about Obama winning Georgia? According to Realclearpolitics average of the polls, Obama hasn't a chance there:

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 10/05 - 10/15 -- -- 51.0 44.2 McCain +6.8
Research 2000 10/14 - 10/15 600 LV 4.0 49 43 McCain +6
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 718 LV 3.5 53 45 McCain +8
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/12 547 LV 4.3 51 43 McCain +8
InAdv/PollPosition 10/09 - 10/09 531 LV 4.0 49 46 McCain +3
Rasmussen 10/07 - 10/07 500 LV 4.5 54 45 McCain +9
Strategic Vision (R) 10/05 - 10/07 800 LV 3.0 50 43 McCain +7

See All Georgia: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

(After October 11 partisan affiliated polls will not be added to the RCP Poll Averages.)

[Tommygun264]

I've only heard that is is closer in Georgia than it has since the 1970's - Obama has a chance, but it's not like he needs Georgia to win.

By the way, how many of those polls take into account people who only use cell phones and do not have wired phone service? If you want the most accurate results, I would suggest you check out the site that has been proven the most accurate for both political parties throughout the primary season:

www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Florida, Colorado and Nevada recently turned a lovely shade of blue.

[000Jade000]

There was a recent Georgia poll that had the spread at 2-3% pts.--adva­ntage, McCain. Sorry, but I do not remember who did the poll. You're right, so far, it looks like an outlier. However, there is interesting movement in other states. (Montana, N. Dakota, S. Dakota, Arizona, Arkansas.) It seems that Arkansas is a state where not much polling is done, and some people (namely, Chuck Todd) think that Barack is gaining ground there, too. Bill Clinton is going to head to Arkansas for 2-3 rallies before the election.