Obama Gets Bounce From Powell Endorsement

Washington Post :

Barack Obama is up 11 points on John McCain among likely voters in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, 54 to 43 percent. Though little changed from yesterday, Obama's national lead is now his biggest of the campaign in Post-ABC polling.

Former secretary of state Colin Powell's endorsement provides a new boost for Obama, who has made significant progress with voters as a leader in international affairs. But Obama also continues to be lifted by more fundamental advantages, including a 2 to 1 advantage on "helping the middle-class."

Read the whole story: Washington Post

Comments

[init]

I'm probably as left as it gets. But I respect Colin Powell all the way. Always have. It just may be that only winners spot other winners. It's an certain energy.

[XME]

Colin Powell is still very respected, particularly of the folks in the middle...who are the ones still making up their minds!

[Mildmannered]

don't become too complacent. this day in 2004, kerry was ahead of bush. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct23.html

[ECB]

You DID the Right Thing !

[globalcitizenlinda]

Thanks Powell for standing up and taking some insults from the right on behlf of Obama

[LemonMeringue]

The Republicans are stealing this election again. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUV_fVoGUBE Rachel Maddow is not afraid to tell us the truth.

[DLB]

Well, if ACORN wouldn't go out and register Mickey Mouse in Florida or the Dallas Cowboys football team in Nevada there'd be no reason to purge voter rolls. Voter registration fraud has its consequence.

[inluvwkeitholbermann]

POWELL POWER!!!!!!!

it's never too late to find your soul........

[DLB]

So I guess the left will no longer refer to Powell as an "uncle Tom" for this endorsement?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/4/12/183155/559

And the left has the nerve to call conservatives r.a.c.i.s.t.s.

[eatyourveggies]

Not all conservatives. Just many of them. Where else would they reside? Hmmmm?

[DLB]

"Where else would they reside? Hmmmm?"

Did you check the link I posted? Where else would they reside? On the left, where they've always been.

[TSense]

Too many mistakes and taken out of context quotes from Biden and Obama have come too close together. Unfortunately, I believe this poll to be accurate even if the publication has a considerable bias.

[Mogamboguru]

No - it's definitely not. See: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Quote.

What's Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll Nazi Strikes Again)

So, there is an 0.000000002% chance that IBD/TIPP just got really unlucky. Conversely, there is a 99.999999998% chance that one of the following things is true:

(i) They're massively undersampling the youth vote. If you only have, say, 30 young voters when you should have 100 or so in your sample, than the odds of a freak occurrence like this are significantly more likely.
-or-
(ii) Something is dramatically wrong with their sampling or weighting procedures, or their likely voter model.

My guess is that it's some combination of the two -- that, for instance, IBD/TIPP is applying a very stringent likely voter model that removes you from the sample if you haven't voted in the past two elections, which would rule a great number of 18-24 year olds out.

A pollster could get away with a turnout model like that in 2004 (when IBD/TIPP did well in estimating the national popular vote), when the split in the youth vote was relatively small between John Kerry and George W. Bush. They can't get away with that this year, when the split is much larger.

Unquote.

[Mogamboguru]

No - it's definitely not. See: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Quote.

What's Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll N.a.z.i Str-ikes Again)

So, there is an 0.000000002% chance that IBD/TIPP just got really unlucky. Conversely, there is a 99.999999998% chance that one of the following things is true:

(i) They're massively undersampling the youth vote. If you only have, say, 30 young voters when you should have 100 or so in your sample, than the odds of a freak occurrence like this are significantly more likely.
-or-
(ii) Something is dramatically wrong with their sampling or weighting procedures, or their likely voter model.

My guess is that it's some combination of the two -- that, for instance, IBD/TIPP is applying a very stringent likely voter model that removes you from the sample if you haven't voted in the past two elections, which would rule a great number of 18-24 year olds out.

A pollster could get away with a turnout model like that in 2004 (when IBD/TIPP did well in estimating the national popular vote), when the split in the youth vote was relatively small between John Kerry and George W. Bush. They can't get away with that this year, when the split is much larger.

[TSense]

Thanks for the info. I idid see that 18 - 24 thing and wondered about that. I thought it must be a typo because they could not believe it themselves.

I think the Biden comments play into a line that Obama does not need.

[myklwain]

conspiracy theory-----she stood in the mirror and used a pencil eraser to form the letter b on her cheek. [the crude b is backwards]. that black stuff around her eye is just makeup....­...develop­ing, yeah right.

come home safe o

[vegasobserver]

Call it the POWNCE!!!

[Mildmannered]

the election is closer than you think. See http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536

[Mogamboguru]

No - it's definitely not. See: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Quote.

What's Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll N.a.z.i Str-ikes Again)

So, there is an 0.000000002% chance that IBD/TIPP just got really unlucky. Conversely, there is a 99.999999998% chance that one of the following things is true:

(i) They're massively undersampling the youth vote. If you only have, say, 30 young voters when you should have 100 or so in your sample, than the odds of a freak occurrence like this are significantly more likely.
-or-
(ii) Something is dramatically wrong with their sampling or weighting procedures, or their likely voter model.

My guess is that it's some combination of the two -- that, for instance, IBD/TIPP is applying a very stringent likely voter model that removes you from the sample if you haven't voted in the past two elections, which would rule a great number of 18-24 year olds out.

A pollster could get away with a turnout model like that in 2004 (when IBD/TIPP did well in estimating the national popular vote), when the split in the youth vote was relatively small between John Kerry and George W. Bush. They can't get away with that this year, when the split is much larger.

[PuddingPop]

I completely agree. I think the media needs to say and do whatever to try to keep Mc Cain in the game. Otherwise there's no story.

http://obamafever.blogspot.com

[TSense]

Has there been a new scare ? It is just speculation and a possible email or sudden web posting. By who or why is this email or web stuff been generated ?

[TSense]

Unfortunately, the combination of Biden's idiotic statement providing an opening, the sound biting of it that made it worse( just like the ridiculous biting of Joe the "plumber"), has given McCain an opening to frame himself as crisis ready. Now he gets to talk about the Cuban missle crisis when he was a pilot. Not that it is relevant for strategic thinking of a president, but some people will think it is and now wonder about Obama. It has slightly changed the narrative and it is still being talked about on day 4.

I see Gallup now shows some tightening, but they are all over the place. Now, all of sudden CNN is doing a terror series during the day even though there is no indication of any such thing.

[buckygreen]

OT but heres Dee Dees new smelly sock. Flag and report at will.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/users/profile/HitlerFlaggedPeople2