Even Warren Buffett Seems To Have Missed His Guess

Under the headline Even the Oracle Didn't Time It Perfectly, Peter Eavis writes that while Buffett has won "plaudits for some canny deals," there's also an "unnerving pattern emerging."

"Mr. Buffett looks to be committing his capital too early. On some bets, waiting might have gotten him better terms or more attractive entry prices."

"Time for the Oracle to get a new crystal ball," according to Eavis.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[Lipstickonapig]

Buffet doesn't time the market, he states it repeatedly in all of his books, Berkshire statement and addresses and whenever he makes a media appearance. Invalid article, do you research.

[truthyguy]

Somehow I think that I would trust Buffett's judgment over Peter Eavis'. If Eavis was so damn smart Buffett would be writing about him.

[darthdarcy]

Always remember those who work on Wall St. make nothing, transport nothing, and deliver no service but to sell that which is not real in any way..!

[strangerinthenight]

Paper instruments which never really created really jobs. We need a hedge fund mgr like we need another hole in the head.

As to Buffet, you dont need a crystal ball. These stocks being offered so cheap, and these companies are in debt to their yang yang, no assests and no chance in making a sustainable recovery. That kind of business management is a looser. Plain and simple - It ain't rocket science.

They will hit rock bottom in a short period of time. At that time, you'll be an owner of useless stocks.

[Yermammy]

Me, the kids and all four pets (two labs, two cats) have all forgone three meals a day to just two until Mr. Buffet recoups ALL of his billions. I know it's not much, but at least we live in a REAL AMERICAN part of the country! Now, I'm weeping (I don't know if it's sorrow, or hunger) :)

Barack & Joe (on a desert island 7 out of 10 doctors hate republicans!)

[strangerinthenight]

A gallon of mild gallon of milk is more expensive that these junk stocks. The stocks being offered low are those companies who are too leveraged, assest are non-existent, deeply in debt and poor credit. No business can thrive under those cirmcumstances. Predictable failure. Their stocks are worthless.

It ain't rocket science.

[Photofarm]

Market timing doesn't work. Buffet would rather buy in the bottom third instead of the top third of the market. While the market may not have bottomed yet, it is a lot closer today than a year ago.

[canuck eh]

With respect, I believe that Buffett is likely right.

He has studied stocks in detail his entire adult life. He most likely keeps an active list of stocks and the prices he wants to buy at. Also, he buys only stocks he considers to be undervalued who have strong management.

You can bet he is buying in small lots, at the troughs in this volatile market. Even if some of his buys go lower before we are done, he will still have bought good stocks at good prices.

Value investors, and other successful investors, do not try to 'time' the market -- they know that no one can predict the absolute peak or absolute bottom.

His comment 'once the robins appear, spring is gone' means he doesn't want to wait until the valuable stocks shoot up quickly in a return of investor confidence. By that time, he will have made his best buys whether at the absolute bottom or not.

What this means to others is that there are deals out there but also that they have to do their own detailed homework, as Buffett does, to ensure that they are buying good value.

[motley2]

If he does get a "new crystal ball" can I have the old one?

[loki]

YOu know things are really back when Enterprise Leasing , who is proud that they haven't laid a person off since 1957 , announced layoffs. Thats when you know the shat has hit the fan. and they even made 14 billion this year ..

[twofish]

Buffet can afford to drop $5 Billion of his fortune without anyone but his accountants noticing. He wasn't exactly gambling with the rent money...

[heal57]

..my sentiments exactly....thanks.

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

It's not about having crystal -- or other material -- balls.

It's simply that market timing doesn't work.

Period.

[Yermammy]

It sure helps with Paulson & Cheney helping matters along. You think this was an accident? lol.

[TheAlchemist]

My New Personal MicroEconomic Policy:

Pay small businesses with cash, check or debit.
Pay large multinationals with credit.

Won't help stock prices, I know, but maybe the little folks, like me, will survive.

[DeanThoreau]

Warren Buffet does not buy for the short term. Never has and I somewhow doubt if he has changed his investment strategy that drastically in the past month!.
Mr Buffeett buys for the long term and will dollar cost average if the stock he is desiring to accumulate goes down.

The man is no fool..If warren is buying ....Buy...
he may be old but he has not gotten stupid and bluntly the man has been buying this way since he was 12 years old, why should he stop now?.

[Egalitare]

Memo to Peter Eavis: Buffett is NOT a day trader.

[olephart]

If the stock market is a leading indicator then it has more to fall before it comes back. Figure it runs 6 to 9 months ahead of the economy and the turnaround should be for real in about a year. It won't take off but will build upside momentum for about a year. The recession will run about 18 to 24 months having started in December 2007. The pick up however will be slow. Real unemployment now at 11+% will top out at about 16% in 2010. The one thing that will cause all bets to be off is a McCain victory. His policies will continue to be ineffective and foreign leaders have no confidence in McCain. They may cut us loose and go on their own way causing the dollar to be turned into wall paper. The dollar may already be headed that way but Obama will get more support than McCain overseas and some of his policies make sense.

[EgbertSouse]

I think Mr. Buffett's primary intention was to do what he could to stave off the severity of the recession/depression. Based on his historical comments, I think his motives were not just monetary.

Mr. Buffett believes paying taxes IS patriotic. I believe he is a patriot above all else.

He continues to baffle objectivist Repubs.

[nezumi]

He is a patriot. He foresaw the crisis (read his speeches to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway) a few years ago and did not exactly recommend to stay in US assets but did so himself. Which was a reason I did not buy Berkshire Hathaway at that time.
This time, he is also a patriot, but I would follow his lead this time - if I had any money left to buy stocks.
:-)