Stevens Conviction Means Senate Race Is "Over," Pollster Says

Independent Alaska pollster Ivan Moore tells the Huffington Post that Sen. Ted Stevens' conviction on seven corruption charges means that "his race is over, categorically. I don't think there's any way he can turn this around."

Moore cautions that pundits and pollsters have called Stevens out before. "Of course I'll say we all said the same thing when he was indicted prior to the primary -- that he was done. Yeah, right. Look how accurate that prediction that was. The truth is, there's no precedent for this kind of stuff."

However, Moore notes that all but one recent poll has shown a lead for Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in the race against Stevens. "It's fairly safe to surmise that Begich had a small but shrinking lead in this race [before the conviction]," Moore said. "And what you're asking me to believe -- if you suggest that Stevens has still got a shot at winning -- is that this news will help. It won't."

The pollster also said another Alaska politician would be hurt by the Stevens conviction -- Rep. Don Young, who is also under investigation. "This probably does end Young's chances ... since when Ted Stevens was indicted on July 29, people in Alaska were surprised it wasn't Don Young. He had seemed to be more wrapped up in [the VECO corruption probe]."

Calling attention to the fact that Young had spent over $35,000 in legal fees defending himself against the federal probe, Moore said many Alaskans had concluded that "Don was probably more corruptible than Ted. The flip side now is that if Ted is guilty, [people will think] Don Young can't be far behind."

Young's Democratic challenger, Ethan Berkowitz, appears to have a stable, statistically significant lead of around eight points, according to an average of all surveys at Pollster.com.

Comments

[NJmikeV]

Does this mean Palin's been palling around with felons ?

[peloquin]

Yuppers!

[boing007]

I am for term limits but how many terms should the limit be?

Two terms. They could then stay connected to the Senate in a new capacity.

[Stilts9]

Stevens is not aging well.

[KansasWrangler]

How about this for a bizarre scenario: Stevens wins his election, resigns from the senate, Palin appoints herself to fill out his term.

[KayWrites]

Oh, I just felr a little sick.

[bobo5]

7 days...7 felonies

[RiggsMD]

Stone Him!!!!

[trollsbwild]

Just remember SP's close ties to Stevens until he was indicted a few months ago.

[whcjr46]

The McCain campaign made a big deal out of Sen Obama's limited association with Bill Ayers, so linking Gov Palin to Sen Stevens is fair play. Sen Stevens has been doing this crap for along time and he finally got caught. It's really sad, but I don't feel sorry for the guy. Stevens and McCain can be Greeters at Wal Mart.

[drivensnow2525]

....I am not familiar with the laws in Alaska.......do they allow convicted felons to VOTE in Alaska ?? If not, does this mean he CANNOT even vote for himself ??

[string-em-up]

String-Em-Up

[Magella]

just passing by to remind everyone about Jennifer huson family passing. I'm dedicating a song she like to her and her family. song title: Vanity -by Mystique GP , dont let nothing or no one get you down Jennifer.

[Chibikim]

I just love October suprises. Thanks Republican party. You are the gift that keeps on giving!

[ConCreteHead]

My biggest worry about Ted Stevens is set in the political history of Minnesota.

When Carter won the presidential election in 1976; then Governor of Minnesota Wendell Anderson named himself as Walter Mondale"s (Vice President elect) replacement to the US Senate. This proved to be the end of Wendell Anderson's political career because it looked to be more self serving for him than to the people of Minnesota as he walked away from his elected state position and assumed a self appointed position in the federal government.

I will lay 10:1 odds that if Ted Stevens wins his re-election bid for the US Senate he will either be admonished by his colleagues prior to his sentencing or he will resign from office and if (when) the McCain/Palin ticket looses the White House. I would guess as most state laws are set-up the current Governor Sara Palin (like Wendell Anderson) would self appoint herself to the vacated US Senate.

I would not doubt if Sara Palin would throw a monkey wrench into her running-mates campaign (going rouge) to make sure she can secure her own political future on the national stage and in the Republican Party. I am surprised the GOP/RNC hasn't been the one to throw McCain under the bus to position the party for better standing in congress and to secure the political future of Sara Palin.

I hope this doesn't happen "US Senator Sarah Palin" would be her experience for 2012 or 2016!

[OBMan]

Hmmm, why isn't Fox discussing Sarah Palin's associations with corrupt lawmakers?

[rr52]

Alaska is predominantly Repubican. That says it all doesn't it? Not a lick of reality or sense going on up there with Palin for a governor and Young and Stevens just now in trouble. The Republican party has always stood for the rich. With spreading the wealth around checks to them from us, you don't think they really care do you?

[Counterglow]

And yet, from the pork barrel point of view, Alaska is one of the worst welfare queens on the block.