Arizona Poll: McCain Leads By Just 2 Points

A new poll from Arizona State University finds John McCain just two points ahead of Barack Obama in his home state.

The results would likely be dismissed if not for the reputation of Bruce Merrill, the poll director, whose work is considered a gold standard in Arizona polling.

Some details:

Republican John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by two points (46 percent to 44 percent) in Arizona, a margin that makes the race too close to call, according to a new Cronkite/Eight Poll. The poll of 1,019 registered voters in Arizona was conducted Oct. 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

According to poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, "The race in Arizona is very close. Supporters of both candidates are highly committed to their candidates, with 94 percent of Obama's supporters and 93 percent of McCain's supporters indicating that they are firmly committed and won't change their mind before Election Day. In addition, the undecided vote is very low, which means that there are few people remaining to be persuaded during the last week of the campaign. Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals. Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen. Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day."

The previous Arizona State University, taken last month, had McCain leading 45 percent to 38 percent.

Comments

[Dubsters]

Okay serious question...someone tell me how this works. If Arizona has 10% more registered republicans and the poll asks 8% more democrats...how is McCain only up by 2%? lol

Polls are a joke and I would suggest you not bet your life on them. Otherwise tell me why Obama, Biden & Clinton are in PA where he is up by "11%" and not in Arizona?

[fdeblauwe]

Darn, that URL didn't get through, I think. Here it is: http://reasonstobecheerful3.blogspot.com/2008/10/what-does-not-compute.html

[fdeblauwe]

Nice cartoon about Arizona getting close in the polls and the very different treatment of Pennsylvania ("battleground state!" even though Obama now about 11% ahead) and Arizona ("safe for McCain" even though McCain now only about 6% ahead) at the Reasons To Be Cheerful, Part 3 blog...

[Shieldmaiden]

It would be too funny and awesome if Obama won Arizona. Just flood the polls and maybe he can beat McCain.

[angrykeyboarder]

I'm in Phoenix and there is TONS of Obama support here.

I would LOVE to see McCain lose Arizona.

But hell, even if he doesn't lose Arizona, he won't win it by much, I can promise you that.

[iheardthisbefore]

As Eva Palin and Adolph McCain look over the latest dispatches from the Campaign
Front, the sound of the Allied Obama bombing is marching closer to their hidden bunker.
They glance at each other, silently acknowledging that it will soon be over, and, sadly,
they make plans for their final hours in this hopeless quest for a place in history for
their command of the BushReich.....

What a sad spectacle this GOP campaign has been.....

[Oregon Ivy]

But according to CNN, McCain's people just conducted their own internal polls and he's dead even or sometimes ahead of Obama in every swing state.

Seriously, that's what they just reported.

Johnny must be getting his poll numbers from the same folks who assured him the fundamentals of the economy are strong.

Internal polls? From outta their arse?

[jsgaetano]

Maybe they were using Rove's "REAL math" to calculate the polls.

[JaimieIndependent]

I am from AZ and all my family still lives there. For the most part they are divided on the canidates - something I never thought my solid republican family would ever be. I now live in Colorado and voted yesterday for Obama and have been encouraging the side of the family leaning Obama to do the same. The funny thing is that the side that is strongly against Obama isn't all that supportive of McCain/Palin. I will keep my fingers crossed that since they are not all that enthused they will just stay home on election day!

[cjtolmie]

Yes! McCain go campaign in AZ!!! HA!!!

[queeraz]

Let's HOPE that Obama kicks McCain's AZ especially, here in Arizona. Next, we'll get him out of the Senate as well. Anyone collecting Social Security does not need to be an elected government official.

[angrykeyboarder]

That reminds me, why DOES McCain collect Social Security?

I thought one had the option to decline it.

Talk about a hypocrite.

[jsgaetano]

McCain has never seen a gubment handout he wouldn't take. He's been suckling on the teet of big daddy gubment literally his entire life.

[StillweRise]

I VOTED FOR OBAMA HERE IN AZ last week. my wife is voting for ObamaTHIS week !!!!!

woooooo - hoooooooooo.... !

[Robocam]

This is no real surprise McCain has done nothing for the state of Arizona. He and Jon Kyl are only interested in furthering their careers. Kyl won reelection by the slimmest of margins against a new comer. With new and younger voters, Arizona seems to be waking up from its long sleep.

[ajf7279]

I voted for Obama in AZ! So did my husband!!!

[VeroucaSalt]

C'mon, 'Zonies!!! I'd love to know the state I left (& consider returning to) has seen the light of hope & change!!!!

[JJ30]

It's pretty sad to know that you may lose your own home state. I kinda feel sorry for the old guy. Then again, he put himself in this situation so oh well. You reap what you sow!