Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

NBC News' final map gives Barack Obama the win:

With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

On Meet The Press Sunday morning, Chuck Todd tells Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins all of those toss-ups, he'll still lose.

Brokaw: And Chuck, what about voter turnout and especially the organization of the two campaigns getting their people to the polls?

Todd: Well, we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans. And of course we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

Brokaw: And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes done to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

Comments

[ohioan73]

I HATE this poll stuff. It does not make me feel better. Lets just vote and see.

[george venny]

Holding my breath. I was SO DISSAPOINTED in 2004, it really shook my faith in this country. All signs look good but holding my breath. In Texas and I EARLY VOTED!

VOTE EARLY!
VOTE EARLY!
VOTE EARLY!

[dpfromtexas]

Yeah ! Someone else from Texas! I went to Church today & I feel good .
Don't worry yourself & please don't make yourself sick.
Just call all your friends & realtives to go out to Vote if they did'nt Vote early.
I hope to see us all on here Tuesday Night Yelling from the Top of the Mountain!!

God Bless America & God Bless Us All!

Go Barack! We Need Change
!
Yes We Can!
Si Se Puede!!

[NoblesseOblige]

It was just reported on CNN that the RNC has started using robo calls in Ohio and Pennsylvania (for the next 2 days) using Hillary's "Barack is not qualifed to be president--John McCain is" clip from the primaries.

They are really pathetic and desperate.

[jadeba]

I got a robo call about the Palin rally in Colorado Springs - now that is desperate.

[RonNYC]

I was watching Keith Olbermann's election special and saw all of these clips of Mrs. Clinton and was reminded how much I hated her during the primaries.

[GREGy]

Truthfully now, what, if anything has Obama done to make you think he is qualified?

[Inthematrix]

I really miss Tim Russert. http://inthematrix.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/sarah-palin-pranked-by-radio-station/

[Palmz]

**********­**********­**********­****Public Service Announceme­nt********­**********­**********­*******

Since we are all making donations to our campaign, i thought it imperative to share this experience:

Yesterday i got a call from this number 603-214-3508 offering to reduce my credit card interest rates to 6%. They were asking for personal information. The caller correctly identify the cards i own and the balances but was unable to say if i had reached my limit. That was the red flag.

Do not give these people your personal information. it is a scam!

Now, go vote!

[mrJJ]

ALL Politics are LOCAL...

Every single Republican & GOP McBush candidate on the down ticket during this election cycle must be voted down or out of office.

GOTV for Obama/Biden

[DFL]

DONT VOTE FOR ANYONE WITH A "R" BY THEIR NAME, LETS GIVE BARACK A FILLIBUSTER PROOF MAJORITY SO HE CAN FIX AND PAY OFF THIS GOP M.E.S.S. AND END THAT WAR THAT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH 9/11 !

[AustinCynic]

I did my bit this past Tuesday. Technically, I didn't vote straight ticket Dem, as I did vote for a Libertarian in one local race where the Democrats did not field a candidate.

On my ballot in Austin, though, there were many more races without a Republican challenger. And I voted line by line, rather than choose the "straight ticket" option--I'd heard that there might be vote flipping problems doing auto straight ticket on the eSlate machines in Texas.

And I checked my ballot very carefully before hitting the button to cast. It's vital that everyone do the same, regardless of the method their precinct uses to record votes.

[BluePrideSMW]

I trust him as I would have Tim Russert. However, VOTE! Strangely, the issues are so similar:

A 1965 Voting Rights Act national radio campaign launched by president Johnson, with a Motown beat:
http://current.com/items/89434265_obama_2008_things_are_changing

[Bitsko]

Ah, Lyndon Baines Johnson, the great American Shakespearean tragic figure. Robert Caro's biography of LBJ is a must read to understand our politics. Thanks for the link.

[lthuedk 1]

Enjoy, Neo Cons.

http://www.light-to-dark.com/pox_americana.html

[Tonilaw]

They said the same thing on CNN

He has to grap two blue states

PA and NH is what he is aiming for. He has little time and little hope

[teron678]

I bet you folks Chuck Todd says the opposite tomorrow .........

[BK1313]

teron678 will you please explain your comment? It isn't that I doubt you. I am very worried that either McCain or the GOP's dirty tricks will pull this off. I just don't understand what you expect to change for Todd between today and tomorrow?

[CurtisEMayle]

No question about it. Our campaign calling activities are heavily focused on PA this weekend and through the 4th. We've had extraordinary volunteer response which overflow our office into the courtyard. Inspiring to see all ages with their cell phones and call sheets all across the mall making calls to supporters and undecideds to encourage them to vote for Barack.

You can do it too ... from home ... just go to www.barackobama.com and click on the "Make Calls" button.

[CurtisEMayle]

Sorry, I meant this as a general post, not a reply to your statement.