Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

NBC News' final map gives Barack Obama the win:

With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

On Meet The Press Sunday morning, Chuck Todd tells Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins all of those toss-ups, he'll still lose.

Brokaw: And Chuck, what about voter turnout and especially the organization of the two campaigns getting their people to the polls?

Todd: Well, we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans. And of course we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

Brokaw: And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes done to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

Comments

[jacqmac]

North Carolina 'over for Obama'? Ummm---he WON the Primary in that state and took it from Hillary Clinton ('the strongest candidate against John McCain'). And from the looks of the trend lines, I wouldn't count Virginia out either!! Look here--Look where McCain HAS to win! He HAS to take ALL of the 'toss-up' states--POSSIBLE, but NOT PROBABLE! That's way too many! PLUS--he HAS TO hold ON to all of the 'reliably red' states, INCLUDING FLORIDA AND OHIO!! That's EIGHT STATES!! McCain is being FORCED TO DEFEND HIS OWN HOME STATE OF ARIZONA!! Good GRIEF!! GET A GRIP!!
As for the 'socialist meme'---guess who is a bigger 'share the wealther' than Obama? The GOVERNOR OF ALASKA that's who!! I don't recall anyone on a Republican platform calling for 'ownership of the natural resources of the State of West Virginia by the PEOPLE of that state' but that's EXACTLY the premise of the 'rebates' that were issued to Alaskan citizens. "The people OWN the resources, they should share the profits.' Sounds like a 'socialist redistribution of wealth' to ME!!

OBAMA/BIDEN '08

[AlaskanToo]

Owning the mineral rights was written into our state's constitution. Not that I'm defending Palin. That would be a daunting task :)

[susieaz]

BOB BARR 08

[teachnotpreach]

I was just out in VA this weekend knocking on the doors of "undecided" voters, "sporadic" voters and "persuadable" voters. The Obama campaign had them identified and labeled in the ways I just named, and we went after them full force! This is just one of many ways that his ground game is very, very tight. I noticed that alot of people who don't normally vote (the ones labeled "sporadic') are coming out for Obama and will vote this time. I think the polls, which usually include "likely" voters, are missing those folks. I have big, big, hope.

[Meggie]

I think you're right. They never felt like republicans, but dems never went after them either. About time a dem came along and had people go out and ask them!
Thanks for doing this work for America!

[SatyriDon]

Obama"s Brilliant Plan to Win Over the Undecideds
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4577

[DFL]

THANK REPUBLICANS FOR YOUR RETIREMENT NEST EGGS CRACKING!

[jusion]

You're welcome.

[Meggie]

And be sure to have your grandchildren thank republicans for the mountain of debt they already have.

[swbks]

This is where you a really missing the boat. Oh, it's easy to throw that line of crap out here on Huffposts because that's what your gonna hear. Yes, there are many Republicans responsible for the financial crisis we have been facing. BUT, it's not that simple. Clinton had his hand in on taking Glass Steagall off the books, The Democrats had a very profound role in creating the mortgage crisis with influential supporter Barney Frank and a long list of others who thought everyone had the "right" to own a house. While it sounds good, it didn't work, and now somehow that WHOLE problem is a Republican issue. Do your homework and you will see it took a lot more than the Republicans to crack the nest eggs. It's easy to spout that out here on Huffposts but it's not the whole truth.

[Oregon Ivy]

Everyone who doesn't want Obama as their president is certainly able to "opt out" of his tax cuts, healthcare plans and education credits. If they wish, they can continue paying at the Bush/McCain rate. We don't mind.

I'm sure Joe the fake plumber will be the first to refuse any Obama benefits, to stick with his infallible principles, of course.

[TrueIndy08]

lets see if Joe is decent enough to get his license and stop doing work on the sly.....

[BigSid]

Wake up guys...EVERYONE'S taxes will go up if Obama is elected and he rolls back the Bush Tax Cuts. I know a lot of you are getting excited at Obama rallies about the possibility of someone else in this country footing your bills, but do you guys even realize that the truth is: people making as little as $28,000 per year got a tax break because of the Bush Tax Cuts?

So sad that Obama managed to create the illusion that it was only the rich who got a break.

All you losers who don't pay any income tax want those who are working harder ot have to provide you with a check? Call it what is is...WELFARE...and maybe people would feel a little bit better about giving it to you. Don't try to act like it's some kinda right you have...or some kinda fairness.

Fair? Seriously, is it really fair that the guy who's paying 35% taxes shouldn't get a break, but the guy paying 15% should? Should the guy paying 35% taxes really have to pay more so that he guy paying no taxes should get a FREE CHECK?

Not only is that not fair, but the reality is that Obama wants to lower the taxes of the people barely paying any taxes, give free money to those not paying any taxes, and INCREASE the taxes on the guy who's already paying the most.

People making less than $250k a year need not reply.

[warlust]

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/spread_the_tax_hooey.html
Stop regurgitating rumors, get your facts right.

[jusion]

Chuck Todd had also predicted a landslide win for Kerry in 2004.

[T Pol]

That's scary.

I'm taking nothing for granted.

On the other hand, you look at Obama's ground game and wow! just wow!

[ECB]

Community Organizer.

[exdubyafan]

Yes, he did. Why is NBC still think that this guy is a genius?

[jacqmac]

However, KERRY did NOT have the GROUND GAME THAT OBAMA has! Kerry did NOT have a LOT of the things that Obama has going for him--$$$, GROUND CREW, and just plain 'likeability'. Also--Obama has probably spent MORE TIME in ANY 'toss-up' state than Kerry spent in one or two in '04. Nope--Dems have a better 'game' this time, MUCH better. EVEN Republican operatives who are now strategists or commentators are absolutely GOBSMACKED by the OBAMA GROUND GAME!! Sooo-McCain better check with Hillary Clinton about 'math problems'--some of his statements lately sound an awful lot like Hillary's during the Primaries. NOT to mention the fact that his surrogates are getting sillier and sillier, sounding an AWFUL LOT like a campaign that has been derailed and just can NOT get back on track! NUMBER ONE LIABILITY----A certain Governor of ALASKA!!
I mean-you know you're in trouble when you have to empty SCHOOLS and BUS IN the KIDS to fill seats and STILL only get 6,000 warm bodies in one place.....

[jwatso7]

I think his prediction is bolstered by the fact that everyone else is saying the same thing. This morning on ABC's This Week, the roundtable panelists all presented their predictions for the final electoral count. The lowest anyone gave Obama (this is a panel of 5, including 2 republicans and a moderate with 2 dems) was about 333. George Will, of all people, predicted Obama would win the night with 378. Maybe Todd has a bad track record in the past, but this year he's certainly not the only one singing this song. I hope the chorus is correct.

[NotMcCain]

It's hard for pollsters to factor in Republican cheating.

Other than the fraud in Ohio, there's no way that 60% turnout in 2004 was to give Bush a 51% "mandate" I just hope historians will get it right.

[lion1]

Barack Obama offers the ONLY viable direction for the United States.

Americans are hurting and angry. The W administration gave America policies that led to the worst financial crises since the 1930's.

The catalyst for this grave financial crises was high gas prices which was supported by the Bush Administration. This was like a secret interest rate on American households.

The Republicans will continue to TAX, TAX, TAX all Americans with high gas prices .

Ordinary American families need a break from the high hidden taxes pursued by the Bush Administration and endorsed by John McCainb over the last 8 years.

John McCain is 4 more years of the W administration.

Barack Obama is good for the middle class

Good for American jobs.

Good for American families.

John McCain and the Republicans have not learnt from the mistakes of the past, and the bad thing is that they see absolutely no need to apologize for their flawed policies of the last 8 years which they promise to continue if McCain is elected.

Americans have the opportunity now to take control of the future by electing Barack Obama on November 4 as the next President of the United States.

John McCain has no substance.

Obama offers my fellow Americans a tax cut for 95%of Americans.

Its TIMe to end the acrimonious self serving special interests that have been supported by the Bush Administration and the Republicans on November 4.

Barack Obama for President.

[jusion]

I'm still not convinced.

[TXOBAMAGIRL73]

Now who care about that !!!! No one, but you !!!! Beside the way you read you have already made up your mind, now your just simply going through the motion!!!

[gr8abz]

Good. So go read the sports section. Let the clear thinkers do all the work for you so you can wake up Nov 5 in a better country thanks to Barrack Obama.

[SWZRindependent]

http://nationalrepublicantrust.com/contactus.html

That link will bring you to a foul group of fear mongers that are promoting commercials with Rev. Wright among other B.S.

These people are looking for donations. I say flood them with complaints instead.

I went with Mickey Mouse @ mmouse@dis­neyland.co­m for my pseudo name...

Have fun folks, and give 'em hell!!!!

[tonysmith]

The issue lies in how you define "tossup." Several of the states you have in the "lean obama" category are considered tossups on other sites.

[ObamAtomic]

Obama decisively,Young voters,new voters,,,,,,,,,,,

[TrueIndy08]

the problem is getting those lazy little s hits out of bed and to the polling station.....

[ECB]

True !

[Daw8it]

In case you have not heard Howard Dean is campaigning in ARIZONA !!!!

http://www.americablog.com/2008/11/howard-dean-will-be-campaigning-in.html
and here
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/howard-dean-campaigning-i_n_140276.html

is over "re-thugs"

[jusion]

Over? Did you say 'OVER'? Nothing is over, until we decide it is. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI

[PiscesGirl24]

Of course you go back to war! That's all you guys got. Have you ever had an original thought in your life??

[TrueIndy08]

Germans????

[suemag]

Yeah, Germans that spoke Japanese

[TheWordman]

Isn't is past your bedtime? If your mother catches you on the computer this late, you're in trouble.

[reliant1]

Germany bombed Pearl Harbor??? We nuked Japan, twice - oooooops.

[ObamAtomic]

Top of the nine inning ,2 out ,7 to1,,last batter McCain,,,,,,,,Game O,,,,,,,,

[whatchamean]

Virgina is gone, so are NC and MO.
Obama did not respond strongly enough to the socialist meme.

[TrueIndy08]

we don't need your s h it talking.... we are positive minded people who believe in HOPE and CHANGE....

if you want spew your pessimism... go over to FOX.... thats all low lifes like your self seem to do with your lives

[total frizz]

Easy. Maybe it's a little past time for your meds, eh?

[ObamAtomic]

Twilight Zone!