Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

NBC News' final map gives Barack Obama the win:

With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

On Meet The Press Sunday morning, Chuck Todd tells Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins all of those toss-ups, he'll still lose.

Brokaw: And Chuck, what about voter turnout and especially the organization of the two campaigns getting their people to the polls?

Todd: Well, we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans. And of course we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

Brokaw: And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes done to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

Comments

[gregjones]

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Listen LIVE...Ton­ight 9pm (est) Nothing But The Truth with Greg Jones....J­OIN US !

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[miocid31]

Again, i won't sleep until Nov. 4/5...lets continue to call, lets continue to tell the country to vote and make sure their vote counts!

[LeftLeanWing]

* Alert *
----------

I've noticed in the polls that the percentage of Republicans polled has increased while the % of independents has decrease. The %Democrats has remained constant..­.. This will explain why some state polls are showing a tightening in the gap.

I just noticed this in the SurveyUSA poll for the state of Virginia where the % of Republicans changed from 30% last week to 38% this week

[Wcritiquing]

Next time try INTERNATIONAL WATCHERS..­..
Next time try INTERNATIONAL WATCHERS..­..
NEXT TIME TRY INTERNATIONAL WATCHERS..­..
NEXT TIME TRY INTERNATIONAL WATCHERS..­.
INTERNATIONAL WATCHERS ARE NEUTRAL UNLIKE THE MEDIA&theirPOLLS
INTERNATIONAL WATCHERS ARE NEUTRAL UNLIKE THE MEDIA&theirPOLLS
INTERNATIONAL WATCHERS ARE NEUTRAL UNLIKE THE MEDIA&theirPOLLS

[Mildmannered]

Those of you working in or planning on working for Obama in VIRGINIA -- we need your help. It is all tied up.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news/politics.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-11-02-0211.html

"The final Richmond Times-Dispatch Poll of the campaign shows Sen. Barack Obama at 47 percent and Sen. John McCain at 44 percent. Nine percent are undecided -- an unusually large slice of the electorate. The profile of undecided voters suggests that some are potentially opposed to Obama.

Because Obama's advantage over McCain is within the poll's margin of error -- plus or minus 4 percentage points -- the contest in Virginia can be considered about even."

[LeeCalif]

Well, now we know the Voting Machines and all modems should be watched extremely closely and from now till ??? Till those states are called for Obama or Obama reaches 270 WITHOUT A DOUBT.

[janeInCA]

Already voted and volunteer working at the poll place. Call local registrar's office, they need volunteer people on election day badly. Only 2 counties in CA that use E-Booth to vote, OC and San Mateo.

[marytny]

Home come the kids haven't showed up to vote yet?
Mine have, but they're out of college.

Wish I had their numbers and I'd start texting!

[TrueIndy08]

I don't know... but their a s s es better get out and vote... their lives depend on this! If they want to finish school and actually have a job once they get out.... they better put their vote where their mouths are....

Hey.. if you are a student...­. GET UP OUT OF BED>>>> GET YOUR ROOMMATES UP AND GO VOTE

[Oregon Ivy]

80,000 people have reported voting problems.

Also, If only 10% of the people who viewed this article decide not to vote, it could cost Obama the election.

Remember 2000 and 2004. NEVER AGAIN!!!!!!!!!

[headexplody]

If Chuck Todd is correct about this (oh heck, even if he isn't), he would be my pick for Meet the Press host. I think I read somewhere that Tim Russert was grooming him for this position. I like his low key personality, although some say that to become host, he would have to get some more pizzazz. I kind of like him the way he is, though. Calm and analytical.

[scottbee]

if mccain tossed a coin up in a joint appearance with palin

palin would grab it before it hit the ground

watch the

Palin Bedroom Stimulus Package

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUMO6zc27gg

[SocialistDistortion]

This is absolutely FRIGHTENING. Pennsylvania should be SAFE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, NOW IT'S ONLY A LEANER!!??!!?? Obama has lost his grip on OH and FL, and now VA is even slipping away!! I have an ugly feeling that McCain is going to pull off the HUGEST upset in electoral history. A couple weeks ago, I posted that this election has a very Rocky Balboa-esque feeling for the McCain campaign, and lo and behold, McCain campaigns in OH coming out to the Rocky theme.

I knew it was too good to be true....

[LMKay66]

I agree. What the h.e.l.l. is Chuck talking about when he says McCain will still lose even if he wins all the tossups? If he wins OH, FL and PA, he'll win. That's really all he needs to do. And according to the new Mason-Dixon poll, McCain is now ahead in OH and making ground very fast in PA. We might be screwed.

[nodoginthishunt]

Some people like SocialistDistortion are starting to get it.

[Jinxykb]

Obama is up 9 points in Pennsylvania. Ohio never was Obama's and Florida is leaning his way---which is fantastic. I don't think there is any need to panic

[TrueIndy08]

I saw 3 polls today that had O up in PA by 4 points... which was within the margin of error....

I don't know.. I think its a case of people trying to convince themselves they could vote for the black guy but the closer it gets... they run for the familiar side.....

[Oregon Ivy]

BUSH TOOK THE WHITE HOUSE WITH ONLY 537 votes!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!!

We need every voter out there to get to the polls and stay until you vote.

[lochnessmonster]

I used to like Chuck Todd be for ehe went all mavericky and TV pundit on us.

[Jinxykb]

He's a stats nerd!

[wanj]

Something remarkable and heart breaking happened to me today... I experienced pure racism from a young teenager from my neighborhood. A kid that my husband mentors every Sunday b/c his parents abandoned him. It broke my heart! He talked about Mexicans in a way that made me blow a gasket...

Anyways, VOTE!

[NJ13]

I don't trust those touch monitors and the only way we can ensure some type of upset does not occur is for people to get out there and vote on Tuesday and be prepared to stay there as long as it takes.

If people had turned out hardily for Gore in 2000, the Republican's would not have been able to pull off that scam with the Diebold voter machines.

TURNOUT IS CRUCAIL FOR OBAMA TO WIN!!!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!!

DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO THESE POLLS AND PRETEND LIKE THEY ALL READ THAT THE POLLS ARE CLOSE!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!!!

[Oregon Ivy]

This article makes me feel sicker and more worried than ever. We have got to get the young people out to vote and this is not going to motivate them.