Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

NBC News' final map gives Barack Obama the win:

With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

On Meet The Press Sunday morning, Chuck Todd tells Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins all of those toss-ups, he'll still lose.

Brokaw: And Chuck, what about voter turnout and especially the organization of the two campaigns getting their people to the polls?

Todd: Well, we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans. And of course we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

Brokaw: And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes done to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

Comments

[Hope01]

I WILL BE SO GLAD WHEN WE PUT AN END TO THE RACISM AND HATE IN THIS COUNTRY! JUST ONE MORE PUSH! TO GIVE BIRTH TO A NEW ERA. COME ON PEOPLE WE CAN DO IT. "YES WE CAN" LET'S TAKE BACK THIS COUN TRY!

[Oregon Ivy]

IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT's OVER!

Just think how you'd feel if you woke up Wednesday to President McCain and Vice President Palin?

GO VOTE!!!!!!!!!!

[DiBaskin]

Are you trying to make me lose my dinner. I would probably try to go back to sleep for four years. Say it ain't so Joe!!

[BadTymin]

who is frank luntz

[suemag]

the guru of linguistics. You've probably seen him on news shows, Bill Maher, etc.. He's an 'expert' on what language people use, body language, how it effects elections, He doesn't like Bill Maher touching him when he's on his show!

[OnePartyEqualsTyranny]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-luntz/words-that-dont-work_b_39208.html

[Tunghoy]

He's the Republican marketing and pollster guy who advised the Bushies how to pull the wool over low-information people using creative wording. For example, he said that instead of talking about "drilling for oil," which sounds dirty, instead to call it "exploring for energy," which doesn't sound too bad.

On environmental issues, he said something like "if we debate the issues with the Democrats, we'll lose, so we have to win the debate with creative language" (not exact quote).

[Danny]

I heard on Air America today a quote on the BBC by Faux News pollster Frank Luntz that "there is no scenario where McCain wins" or something to that effect.

[Oregon Ivy]

Yes there is a scenario where McCain wins. We still have to get out the vote for Obama. I personally know at least 20 idiots who are voting for McCain!

And what if the Rethugs have PA in the bag for McCain? We have no control over the cheating and stealing..­.the only way to counteract that is with overwhelming VOTES.

I wish everyone would stop talking like this is a done deal. We have been cheated of victory before.

At this time in 2004 Kerry was ahead in the polls, too!!!!!!!!!!!

[Oregon Ivy]

Don't get cocky. If we don't get out the vote, then McCain wins.

I personally think the Republicans are trying to lull Democrats into staying home so they can stage an upset.

Headlines like this don't help. Let's stop counting chickens and assuming. ANYTHING can and WILL happen!!!!!!!

Everyone HAS to get out there and VOTE, no matter WHAT.

[Dunworkin]

I would like to see Chuck Todd take the perment seat of meet the press,I don't think anyone can ever replace Tim Russert complety,but chuck is young enough and eager in his work to do a good job.

[dbrockx]

Get out and vote, I did. Please , for the sake of humanity. Vote, Yes we can. Take nothing for granted. Please people, vote. Chuck is good, but Chuck can't guarantee a Obama win, Vote

[Mildmannered]

Chuck -- but isn't VA now a toss up???

[MaybeMilo]

WTF??? USA Today is reporting that Venezuela's Chavez has just "endorsed" Sen. Obama....

I thought his "el Diablo" remarks were funny, but...well­...poor choice of timing, Hugo.

[LemonMeringue]

I wouldn't make too much of it. Everybody knows Chavez despises Bush, and of course he would also dislike McCain.

[all4peace]

Who is going to tell Sarah that it's bask to the iceberg?
maybe she and Joe the Plumber can start a Country Western group: We're No Where Again!

[LemonMeringue]

Fox News will pick them both up. Fox seems to be the refuge of washed-up failures in the right wing.

[bonchesva]

I have really enjoyed watching and listening to Chuck Todd throughout this campaign. He has done a wonderful job! Go Obama!

[Danny]

huh? Chuck Todd has his finger to the wind, and no matter what he was saying A WEEK AGO, he's seen where the wind is blowing. Chuck Todd is -- what's the word -- a "David Brooks come again"?

[Leesee]

I just read what I posted and it was pretty nonsensical -- it sounded okay in my head when I was writing it, which is either a good excuse, or a larger part of the problem.

[iChoose]

Actually, your point makes a whole lot of sense.

[Danny]

Leesee -- it's alright. We know what you meant.

[Tamoomoo]

I love Chuck Todd. Liked him since he was editor of Hot Line, or whatever it was. He used to be on CSPAN all the time. My husband likes to imitate his "thinking" look, looking up and fluttering his eyes.

[Leesee]

I imagine some of Mccain's popularity in FL is due to the fact that he used to be pretty popular; maybe it just takes a while for his unpopularity to sink in down there?

[OnePartyEqualsTyranny]

A whole lot of per pressure among retires.

[unite4change]

VOTE, VOTE, VOTE, PLEASE!

OBAMA/BIDEN 2008