Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

NBC News' final map gives Barack Obama the win:

With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

On Meet The Press Sunday morning, Chuck Todd tells Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins all of those toss-ups, he'll still lose.

Brokaw: And Chuck, what about voter turnout and especially the organization of the two campaigns getting their people to the polls?

Todd: Well, we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans. And of course we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

Brokaw: And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes done to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

Comments

[Greg285]

I love it when a good plan works out! Karma is a beautiful thing for all those anti-American from the far right who call themselves ‘Republicans’…Nov 4th, we about to witness the greatest beat down in politics in our lifetime….­.

[rdiaz921]

FL leaning McCain?!

Wow. How badly do you have to be bi...tch sl**app ed to learn your lesson?

I was there in 2004 and moved back up North in 2006. You couldn't buy a condo for under 200,000 in 05. Now I heard they are trying to give them away.

[EvasDaddy]

Actually, we can't even give them away now.

[DiBaskin]

FL is toss-up according to the above post.

[WorldGoneWild]

For all the PA voters out there, please check out the VOTES PA website if you are unsure of your polling location or questions about the whole voting process (no virus).

http://www.votespa.com/Home/tabid/36/language/en-US/Default.aspx

Philadelphia and the surrounding counties need a huge turnout to bring home a victory for Obama.



I can't wait to vote!
Obama/Biden 08'

[VivaMariaElena]

New ``yes we can`` video of Obama on youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN_NNZyh43s


tell everybody you know about it.
it is a great song.

[nodoginthishunt]

Dems, please don't start yelling racism and vote stealing on Tuesday. Our country should unite behind our new President, John McCain.

Instead, learn some important lessons from 2008. The country is better off with a vibrant two-party system at the Presidential level. Frankly, dems haven't been holding up their end.

(1) Stop nominating ever more liberal candidates. Gore to Kerry to Obama? Sheesh! Remember the definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

(2) Don't nominate someone with an unknown past. Keating five = yesterday's news; illegal-alien aunt = today's headline news.

(3) Don't ignore the south. When was the last time the dems won the White House without a southerner on the ticket?

(4) Forget the youth vote. College students are good for filling envelopes, not ballot boxes. Dems who have made this error go back all the way to McGovern.

(5) Try to understand your country. You cannot win the White House with only 28% of the church goers.

(6) Listen to your party's political pros like the Clintons, Rendell, and Mark Green. They have been trying to tell you all of this, and more.

[RhinoCrossing]

Once your delusions end, you will welcome your new president Obama.

[nodoginthishunt]

OK. Whatever.

[littlejohnpa]

Are you saying va and nc aren't in the South?

Republicans understand:

1. Stop nominating even more Conservative far right candidates like Palin

2. Don't nominate someone who makes big issues out of small things that are nothing really to do with the candidate - ie Obama's aunt

3. Don't ignore the North - when was the last time the Repubs won the White House without winning a state in the North

4. Forget the youth vote - those new voters are not for you.

5. Try to understand your country. You cannot win the White House just appealing to church goers.

6. Listen to your party's political pros like Frank Luntz, Colin Powell and Karl Rove

[BillCarson]

Nice.

[nodoginthishunt]

1. Last time I checked, Palin's not at the top of the ticket. She is doing exactly what's she's supposed to do, bring in a certain set of voters. It's McCain's job to deal with the rest.

2. The voters determine this, and it looks like you will learn what the voters care about the hard way.

3. Doh! That's why Mac is in PA and OH. He's also in the dem's rear in NH.

4. Exactly. They're not turning out in big numbers for anybody. At least we agree on something.

5. Who said "just." But 28%? Come on did you pay no attention to the 2000 and 2004 post-mortems?

6. OK. Whatever. You really don't get it.

[BillCarson]

Satire?

[iChoose]

I hope you will show up Tuesday night to repeat this nonsense. Obama will be the new president in two days.

[nodoginthishunt]

Numerous people have challenged me to show up Tuesday. I will.

[DiBaskin]

I hope you will unite behind our president Obama. The only way McCain wins is steal the election like Bush did twice.

[VivaMariaElena]

New ``yes we can`` video of Obama on youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN_NNZyh43s

[DFL]

WHEN VOTING ON TUESDAY, DONT FORGET TO WEAR A NICE BLUE SHIRT OR JACKET!

[LemonMeringue]

Nice idea!

I've been wearing blue. If the GOP steals this again I'm wearing black for 4 years and flying a flag upside-down.

[L3ftofC3nter]

COME ON PEOPLE!!
We cannot let up and let this election slip through our hands. Make sure you help get out the vote!!!

OBAMA/BIDEN '08!!!

[HypnoToad]

VIRUS ALERT!!!!

[THE JEDI 69]

Well now we see why Obama ran a 50 state race and not just a red/blue race.....i­f Obama win VA, NC, and NV....he wins the Presidency with out traditonal blue States..th­ey put MT and ND in his coloum..co­me on when was the last time a dem even had a shot at those states....­..I truly think this entire campaign has not one thing to do with race....ye­ah ya got people who won't vote for him....but most Americans just aint that way...Obam­a 08

[AlexeiJ]

For all those anxious about the outcome of the election, here's a heart-warming video to watch between the rounds of phone banking: :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf19H_sHMro&fmt=6

[augiemarch]

I apologize if somone a page or two down has already made this comparison, but McCain reminds of the Monty Python and the Holy Grail scene in which, I think, Cleese has arms chopped off, and yet he blusters defiantly. I'm beginning to wonder if there won't be places in which the ultra conservative vote is'nt down because of discouragement.

[aussiechick]

We're in the home stretch. Push forward and vote and victory will be in sight!!

[DuVal Dem]

What is up with Pennsylvania? Does Obama need to get back to Pennsylvania? He'll be here in Jacksonville, Florida tomorrow..­...I'm looking at Cnn now....Is Pennsylavnia close?


Pennsylvania don't be fooled by McSame....­.We'll get 4 more years of the Same with him.

[bbridges1962]

Do we need to go talk to the Pennsylvanians? Have they totally lost their minds? Come on people...d­o some investigating on your own !! Obama will help this country...­McCain is only there to cover up Bush's tracks...w­hy do you think that the picked Palin? That way noone would ever do anything to harm McCain as not to have a "President Palin"....­.don't that scare you to death?

[nodoginthishunt]

I've spent a lot of time in the middle of PA (the Alabama-like part) in past campaigns. Obama will not win this state.

[BadTymin]

we cant let them still this election from us pls everyone get out and vote

[tjslo]

We can't stop now!

Go to Obama's website and volunteer to make GOTV calls to swing state voters.

It's easy (they give you a script to follow) and fast (most of the time the person you are calling isn't home so you leave a message). I made 25 calls in about 40 minutes on Thursday, 150 calls in 3 hours yesterday. Use your cell phone's free weekend or unlimited call minutes.

If everyone makes 25 calls today, tomorrow and Tuesday it can make a HUGE difference.