Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

NBC News' final map gives Barack Obama the win:

With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

On Meet The Press Sunday morning, Chuck Todd tells Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins all of those toss-ups, he'll still lose.

Brokaw: And Chuck, what about voter turnout and especially the organization of the two campaigns getting their people to the polls?

Todd: Well, we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans. And of course we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

Brokaw: And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes done to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

Comments

[STILJON]

There is only one thing anyone should be saying in these comments. GO VOTE!!! The polls mean nothing unless everyone votes. Give one day if it takes that and work for our future by voting for Senator Obama and he will continue to spend every day working for you. The polls are so wide in large part because of new voters. It’s up to all of us to stand in line for as long as it takes and vote. This is the largest effort ever to bring in new voters so if you don’t vote you will permanently prove the belief that first time voters do not go to the polls and ensure your concerns are never pursued or listened to again. Make this time different. You could finally change the landscape of the electorate and force your ideas to be considered, expanding policies beyond the base of both parties. Every single vote counts and we cannot afford to wake up Wednesday and find out democrats lost by only a few votes again, because we thought it would be a blowout. Let’s make it a landslide and prove the polls right!! Everyone take a day and change the world!!! VOTE!!!!!!!!

[Shadow08]

Polls are polls. They can be interpreted and re-interpreted many ways.

This election is about Barack Obama-Unity-The United States-Civil Rights-Economic Justice-Tearing Down Old Walls-Defeating Predjudice-Putting away Old Streotypes-Building Bridges Between Generation, Gender and Racial Divides-Healing Age Old Wounds-and making some semblance of peace with our global neighbors.

To be succinct, it's about survival. If we continue with the republican politics and policies of divide and conquer, we as a people, as a nation will cease to function, and then to exist.

This is the time for the final push against everything that has prevented progress for the last 8 years. The difference between the dark ages the republicans offer or the gianty leap into the 21'st century Barack Obama offers. I have already cast my vote for the 21'st century and my children and theirs, I hope you will too.

-Shadow.

[night owl]

This site has 89 presidential projection tallies -- including Huffingtonpost.com
http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm
Of those, 88 have Obama leading, with 84 showing him above the 270 EV threshold.

That's a great forecast -- THAT WILL ONLY COME TRUE IF WE ALL VOTE AND MAKE SURE TURNOUT IS STRONG.

Again, I urge you to spend tomorrow (or as much time as you can) calling people in swing states and getting out the vote for Barack Obama.

And I'm so very proud of us all for working so hard. Rest well -- on Wednesday.

[botan]

My God, my God, the last time my beloved Indiana went Democrat I was a little over a year old. I'm 45 now and I'm praying hard it happens day after tomorrow. I don't care if I have to call off work and stand in line all day, I'm voting Obama. If he can take Indiana, its a landslide. When that happens you'll find me on Monument Circle in downtown Indy crying like a baby and screaming at the top of my lungs: This is the real America, this is the real America!!!!

[redhead61]

botan

We live in Southern Indiana in a Heavily dominated Republican Rural area...but it is changing..­.There are many Obama signs in yards...
We have already voted for Obama. We know what you mean!!! I am 47 years old...and I am so excited about Obama winning this Presidency­..I know..I Know with ALL that is in me..it is going to happen..so have faith and get ready to cry those tears of JOY Fellow Hoosier!

[CintiBlue]

Obama/Biden/TURN INDIANA BLUE

[GoBarryGo]

You mean you didn't vote early, botan? You could have saved yourself several hours in a line on Tuesday if you'd voted 2-3 weeks ago! No matter, no matter though -- as long as you stay the course and wait it out no matter how long it takes, that's cool. Tomorrow is last of early voting hours, 8 am - Noon here (I'm in the South Bend area) - I'm guessing it's the same down your way. You might want to try to vote tomorrow. We have been working so hard up here; even my 15 year old daughter has been canvassing and phone banking. I feel our chances are very, very good to go blue this year -- if we get a really great turnout -- especially in Indy and the Chicagoland burbs -- we are going to do it! It all hinges on turnout -- I am really optimistic.

[botan]

As strange as it may sound I want to experience the day. I have thought about going in and voting early but I have NEVER waited to vote in my precinct. However, if I do end up waiting, I'll be pleasantly suprised. I want to remind everyone that if you are in line at 6:00pm, you will be allowed to vote. This came from Todd Rokita himself so, don't let them try anything. Also, I would advise that besides your I.D. you take other proof of your address/residence. A gas or electric bill should do or even a property tax statement. Remember, you cannot be denied the right to vote even if your home is in foreclosure or you are late on property taxes. As long as you are registered and have I.D. you have the right to your vote. The only person who can challenge you is an election official, you do not have to answer to a party rep. Many of these are people outside polling place doors, you do not have to answer to them, by Indiana law they cannot obstruct the entrance. I want to stress I have never had a problem voting, nor have I been challenged regarding my vote. I confess I am a white male and maybe too much of a Hoosier but I expect everyone here to show the proper comportment, dignity and respect that is part of our heritage. In closing, I too am optimistic, hopeful and exited

[DFL]

GOOD JOB BOTAN, LETS ALL GET OUT AND OVERWHELM THE REPUBS, THEN THEY CANT CHEAT AGAIN.

[toocoldout]

Don't get too comfortable. Keep working to get Obama elected. You can help Obama by making phone calls:

http://pol.moveon.org/obama/teams/index.html

[lovethesinner]

This is bunkum. McCain has been 7 points down in New Hampshire for weeks. Current trend adjusted estimates have him down 6.8 with recent polls showing it around Obama +10 or more:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

These guys on TV are doing the nation a disservice by keeping this race "close" just to make money on advertising.

Obama-Biden '08

[FlyTheBlueSky]

I don't care what the polls say. I have been volunteering in NH, and am going to be there on Monday and Tuesday, helping to push Obama over the line at top speed.

[Shadow08]

Your're right, they aren't showing the writing on the wall.

[DFL]

I STOPPED WATCHING CNN WEEKS AGO, THEY TAKE ANY NEGATIVE NEWS ABOUT BARACK AND RUN WITH IT, THEY TAKE THE POLL SHOING THE CLOSEST RACE AND: THATS IT, IT'S OVER!

[chronic]

I want to know why Obama is giving Mc any acknowledgement and praise at his rallies. Then in the next breath says Mc is bad for America.


Why does he do that? Why must Dems praise Mc at any turn??

[Myshkin57]

He does that so as to not alienate disaffected Republicans who might vote Obama but respect McCain.

[MyDogJack]

Because Obama is a true leader for all Americans, not just those who vote for him. Remember his speech in Denver? There is no blue America, no red America. There is only the United States of America. He is a statesman, a visionary, and a respectable man. Quite the opposite of McCain .


He will be there for all of us, unlike Bush who was only in it for the rich. So long Bush, you nearly ruined us.

[SadiSays]

Don't let them steal this election. If you are off Tuesday or will have time to spare.....

1. Go out and buy an electric megaphone- (you know...."C­ome out with your hands up!" ...one of THOSE)

2. Go to different neighborhoods, walk or ride shotgun- (don't megaphone and drive)...

3. Tell your fellow citizens to get dressed and get out to vote, if they're registered to do so.

* Don't call for anyone to vote for a specific candidate.­..just vote- (we wouldn't want someone to deliberately vote for the opposition, out of spite, from being conjured into action by someone in their neighborhood with a megaphone).

BE HEARD *** MAKE A DIFFERENCE!!

COPY AND PASTE THIS MESSAGE / SEND IT TO FRIENDS AND FAMILY WHO WANT TO DO SOMETHING MORE....

[nonconformist2]

Please copy and paste the below text and email it to all the young people you know!!!

Please forward this email onto all young voters you know:

To young voters who will use Obama's significant lead in the polls as an excuse not to go to the polls and vote, please remember three important things:

1. If you decide you don't need to vote, you can bet that millions of others will do the same. The result is obvious: McCain wins.
2. The down ticket races matter (senator, representative and governor). If Obama is to be an effective President, he will need all the help he can get.
3. And finally, most importantly, you have a chance to be part of history. It is a story you can tell your children and grandchildren one day about how you stood in line for hours in the pouring rain for the chance to vote in the first African American president in history. This is a much better memory and story then, "I was too lazy to get out of bed".

If you fail to show up to vote, you will regret it for the rest of their life.

And the media will smugly remind people that, once again, young people failed to fulfill their promises.

You are better than that. We believe in you. And so does Obama.

VOTE AS IF YOUR LIFE DEPENDS UPON IT! BECAUSE IT DOES!

AND CHANGE THE WORLD!!!

[KarateKid]

McCain may have Hank Williams Jr, but we have BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN.

[CaptainStormfield]

The Boss rules. Hank Jr. is a tool......­.....

[KarateKid]

The Boss is quintessential America. His music moves me to the core.

[TrueThis]

MSNBC needs to find someone better than Mason Dixon to do their polling. I've seen Chuck Todd explain their Mason Dixon polls at least 4 times while he's anchoring MSNBC right now. Their polls are dated from October 27-29.

[Jaking]

my point !! Mason Dixon poll is the lowest poll! but the truth is Obama is ahead by 11 states! but they don't talk much about that! the media is boasting polls trying to keep up the hipe, but we still must continue to push the vote!!!!

[L3ftofC3nter]

I agree!! These Mason Dixon polls are confusing me. One second he's ahead and then in the next breath they're in a dead heat.

[anopenmind]

Watch Bruce Springsteen and Barack Obama Live
http://origin.barackobama.com/live/

[GoBarryGo]

I canvassed for Obama all afternoon in Indiana. The number of volunteers here is amazing -- so much energy, so much enthusiasm, and just sheer daunting numbers of people hitting the streets, giving up a beautiful autumn afternoon for the promise of something much more valuable come Tuesday. The belief here is that if turnout is high, Obama will take Indiana. No matter what, it's going to be very, very close and all of our work has helped to "spread the map" giving McCain extra ground to defend with time and money. Early voting lines here have been long -- not Georgia and Florida long, but 4 hours was common today. Turnout, Baby, Turnout -- our weather for election day is calling for a near-record high of 70 degrees and sunshine. I'd say things bode very, very well for Senator Obama. YES WE CAN!

[nelgom]

I live in NYC but I'm going down to Pennsylvania this Tuesday to help get out the vote. Every time I see Palin or McCain I realize that I need to do more than donate to a campaign. Well, I decided to take a day from work and do something in a battleground state. To the Republican base I say only "NOT THIS TIME, BABY!"

[GoBarryGo]

Terrific, nelgom! That's the spirit that is going to help win this thing -- Barack is right -- we have to work like our future depends on him winning this election, because it does.

[spunky5408]

Anyone just see the new LetFreedomRing ad?

Yikes! Talk about trying to scare voters.

[chronic]

I saw that crap.


The repubics are dangerous to America and the world.