Final Presidential Polls

UPDATE - 2:00 PM ET on November 4

• GWU: Obama 49, McCain 44

• Rasmussen: Obama 52, McCain 46

• DailyKos/Research 2000: Obama 51, McCain 46

From FiveThirtyEight:

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.

UPDATE - 5:30 PM ET on November 3

New national polls this afternoon:

• WashPost/ABC News: Obama 53, McCain 44

• Fox News: Obama 50, McCain 43

• CBS News: Obama 51, McCain 42
  

  
  UPDATE - 2:00 PM ET on November 3

  New national polls on the last day of the race:

  • Hotline: Obama 50, McCain 45

  • Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 50, McCain 42

  • Daily Kos/Research 2000: Obama 51, McCain 45

  • Marist: Obama 53, McCain 44

  • WSJ/NBC: Obama 51, McCain 43

  
  UPDATE - 9:30 AM ET:

  Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com writes of the latest presidential polls:

  Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.

  
  I continue to find a hair's worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls -- even as Obama's position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren't.

  However, Obama's win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he's gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 points after having been at 4 before. (The Zogby poll is probably an outlier, but may serve to balance out outliers like Strategic Vision on the other side).

  Secondly, McCain's clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting.

  

  [FiveThirtyEight.Com]

  UPDATE - 8:30 PM ET: Two new polls released late Sunday give Barack Obama a commanding lead heading into Election Day.

  A CBS News survey shows Obama up by 8:

  With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.

  
  As the number of undecided voters has dwindled, so has the number that says their minds can still change. More than nine in 10 of each candidate's voters now say they have made up their minds about who to vote for and are not likely to change. Just seven percent of Obama voters and 8 percent of McCain voters say they still might change their minds.

  And USA Today has Obama leading by 11:

  Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.

  
  With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders' support is estimated to be:

  • Obama, 53%.
  • McCain, 42%.

  Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.

  Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its "traditional" model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted -- including first-timers.

  And here are the national trends, via Pollster.com:

  SENATE RACES

  The latest polling averages in the key Senate races, from RealClearPolitics:

  

  THE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUNDS

  Below, the latest presidential polling averages from Pollster.com.

  FLORIDA

  NORTH CAROLINA

  VIRGINIA

  OHIO

  MISSOURI

  COLORADO

  NEVADA

  GEORGIA

  PENNSYLVANIA

   

Comments

[hortonhearsawho]

09:01 PM on 11/05/2008

There's a new sheriff in town boys....

[rainbowstate808]

01:24 AM on 11/05/2008

I am overwhelmed that America got it right this time! It's the first time I've ever gotten interested in politics and even donated to one. Obama is inspiring. He is real and honest. He connects with me. He's got all the experience I need! What an inspiration to the world.

Check out this website welcoming America back into the community of nations after the last 8 dark years! It's called WelcomeBackAmerica.org . Go and upload your own photo.

[rmp830]

01:17 AM on 11/05/2008

How do you spell landslide??? O-B-A-M-A!!!

[ObamaRocks13]

09:53 PM on 11/04/2008

Great Sarah Palin Video, check it out!
its so worth watching! great animation and song!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exiyBYnJ00

[ThinkForYourself2]

08:27 PM on 11/04/2008

The following video below is of a computer programmer, speaking under oath, about how he helped to rig the Florida election in 2000. He confesses that he was asked to write this program by Florida Republican, Speaker of the House, Tom Feeney.

If you have the choice, DO NOT use the electronic voting machines. They may be rigged.

Add this to the list of important stories that our criminal mainstream media has completely ignored and/or helped to cover-up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mq9WVuKGwOM&feature=related

[melpol]

04:46 PM on 11/04/2008

Easier living is on the horizon with the new Democratic congress. Poor people will soon be seen everywhere. A nation of poor people will be good for the economy. Poor people use every dime they have on food and shelter, and do not hoard their money. Under these bare boned conditions consumer needs would be known by food markets in advance. This would be a Bonanza for big business---they could predict what their profits would be with minimal investment. Healthcare would be provided at no cost and paid for by taxes on individuals that make over 150 thousand dollars a year. Extreme poverty will be eliminated and free love will fill every bedroom. It sounds too good to be true but we will soon be blessed by great new leaders that will help us cross the river Jordan into the land of milk and honey.

[WyomingJack]

12:46 AM on 11/06/2008

Joe, is that you? Joe the Plumber? Oh, I'm sorry, it must be Victoria Jackson. What a brilliant observation. Did you think that up yourself or did you reguritate it from some extremist right-wing wacko commentator who preys on the uninformed?

[LetDownAndHangin]

04:15 PM on 11/04/2008

Amazing video about Sarah Palin. You only have one more day to make fun of her! hahah

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exiyBYnJ00

vote Obama '08!

[Any1canbvp]

03:35 PM on 11/04/2008

Hey everyone! I just watched a hysterical video by some guys from Scranton, PA who thought making a satire about Palin would be a good idea! Heres the link if you want to watch it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exiyBYnJ00

Its called ANYONE CAN BE VP, you can search it on Youtube!

VOTE OBAMA 08'

[JenMI]

03:18 PM on 11/04/2008

Nate Silver..you make East Lansing proud..we wish you much success!

[monicaangela]

03:26 PM on 11/04/2008

I always admired him for listing his nationality as American. He is definitely one of our brainiacs.

[libsarepinheads]

03:15 PM on 11/04/2008

So this is where the left hangs out (besides CBS, CNN, NBC, MSNBC, ABC, NY TIMES, LA TIMES, etc).

This election makes what happened in FL in 2000 look like a walk in the park. Congrats, at least in OH you made Chicago politics come alive. Massive voter fraud, a blind Secretary of State (Democrat of course), we now have busses coming into Ohio from MI to vote because of same day registration.

At six I will pour a tall one and toast the end of a great nation. Socialism has never worked. You will be learning a major lesson in the months/years ahead.

To your health!!!

[monicaangela]

03:20 PM on 11/04/2008

Sounds like sour grapes already, don't forget to choke on them while you're toasting our health. Enjoy your defeat tonight. Look for a better country maybe, just a suggestion.

[libsarepinheads]

03:36 PM on 11/04/2008

I am afraid we will have a new country. That was my point.

[JenMI]

03:22 PM on 11/04/2008

Thanks, wah, wah wah.....

[libsarepinheads]

03:34 PM on 11/04/2008

How profound!! Stealing a line from Arthur "one normally has to go to a bowling ally to meet someone of your level".

[dartagnan]

02:40 PM on 11/04/2008

"McCain's clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting."

From your blog to God's ears! I'm still going to be biting my knuckles until this one is finally and irrevocably in the bag.

[AlexeiJ]

02:37 PM on 11/04/2008

To help fight anxiety about the outcome, here's some feel-good Obama that you can watch between rounds of phone-banking:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf19H_sHMro&fmt=6

[StealYourFace]

02:04 PM on 11/04/2008

What's with this map? Washington leaning Obama? We're solid baby!

[Actongue]

02:50 PM on 11/04/2008

Yea lets hope Gregoire wins too:}

[hangdogit]

01:40 PM on 11/04/2008

By tomorrow we can finally say good riddance to Palin -- just stay in Alaska -- forever.

McCain will still wander around the Senate -- as a big-time looser.

[Icantbelieveher]

02:11 PM on 11/04/2008

Better yet (and best of all)

BAH BYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEE, BUSHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SEE YA -- WOULDN'T WANNA BE YA!

[underwhere]

01:18 PM on 11/04/2008

I hope Lou Dobbs get dropped from CNN soon after this election.
I am so pissed and tired to see him everyday on national television blatantly branding himself as Mr. Independent, when he makes David Gregen look like a liberal extremist.
The guy was assaulting Obama on accounts of Acorn, Ayers, and Wright for god's sake.
He will find a good job at FOX, just like his buddy Glenn Beck.

[stanschurman]

01:39 PM on 11/04/2008

Dobbs was once one of the few on CNN that would stick his neck out. Unfortunately, he seems to have annointed himself the saviour of all that is American. He still makes some good points, but they are tinged with intolerence, especially towards illegal immigrants. It's one thing to want to tighten up immigration. It's another to spew venom against one group of people who, for the most part, just want something better in life.

As for David Gergen, he`s hardly an extremist of the right or the left. To my mind, he`s the most cogent of the CNN comentators. He certainly came up with the best line of all the post-debate discussions when he uttered ``Beats the hell out of me`` when asked after the 3rd debate, what he would advise McCain to do next.

[reality567]

10:09 PM on 11/04/2008

its fine to want something better in life and unfortunate that many illegals are unable to achieve it, but that does not in any way mean that illegal immigration is OK, or that they should be given special consideration, any more than it is excusable for a homeless man to break into another man's home because he "needs to live". The US system was not meant to handle the burden of given citizens benefits to millions of foreigners. Their position is unfortunate ys, but we still have laws. The term is ILLEGAL immigrant for a reason.

[monicaangela]

03:11 PM on 11/04/2008

Very good, I'm glad someone else noticed this. I think Dobbs is trying to build ratings on his failing talk radio show. I think he somehow feels neo-cons listen to more radio than anyone else, so he's trying to eat into the Hannity/Limbaugh audience he however, has to use the title Mr. independent to be able to keep his job at CNN. Looks as though he has been down to the crossroads and has ultimately sold his soul for an ounce of gold. So long Dobbs, unless you do a lot of A** licking, you are about ready to be on your own.