Election Results: McCain Campaign Manager On The Five Must-Win States

George Stephanopoulos writes this morning on McCain's must win states and his interview yesterday with McCain campaign manager Rick Davis. Go here to see a collection of pundits' predictions on the election.

Here are the six states to watch between 7pm and 8pm tomorrow night:



Virginia and Indiana after the last polls close at 7pm, Ohio and North Carolina after 7:30pm, and then Pennsylvania and Florida after 8pm.

These are the canaries in the coal mine.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis conceded on "This Week" that John McCain has to win five out of six of these states to have a viable path to the presidency.

He could get there by holding all of the Bush states -- Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina -- and losing Pennsylvania, and then sacrificing Iowa and New Mexico.

But he will then need to secure Nevada and Colorado and all the rest of the Bush states later in the evening.

Comments

[andy238]

More than ever before, I've found myself swept up in 24/7 election coverage. This morning I decided to get more involved, by making phone calls into swing states. Do it! Go to Barack's website - it's easy, and kind of fun. You will talk to a bunch of answering machines, but you will have some interesting conversations, too.

I got a bunch of enthusiastic supporters who thanked me for my efforts, and exactly one Uninformed Voter: "Don't you know he's a Muslim, they should go back to their own country, etc, etc..."

My question: Starting on Wednesday, can we unite as a country after all this acrimony?

[AshevilleVoice]

Yes We Can

[Tabasco]

Even if the Senate Dem/GOP balance doesn't get 60 Democrats needed for a filibuster-proof majority, it will make the job easier to get bills through.

If there's 57 Dems, only 3 Repubs need to be bribed. If there's 59, it's only one.

The notion that the Republicans are still a 'disciplined' (read 'lockstep') party flew out the window 2 years ago. Most are either using populist language to be re-elected or are distancing themselves from the Bush/Cheney debacle.

The country learned after Herbert Hoover's reign of flatulent "conservative" ideology what America was really about. And FDR flourished. That same lesson is reinforced after 8 years of incompetent pretenders are finally seen for what they are.

We are looking at a future with fewer fiscal resorces (thanks, GOP) and greater environmental challenges. Most of us are willing to do what it takes to reverse the damage and isolation caused by all the friends of supply-side economics and cowboy diplomacy. But it will be hard work.

It all starts the night of November 4th, 2008.

[Tahut]

I read somewhere today that what will be left of the repugs in the Senate are the worst of the worst - the hard-core, in-your-face, no-way-in-Hell types. All the moderate repugs are either retiring or will be tossed out. So they need to make sure they half 40 plus seats and then have plenty of sticks to poke between the spokes to stop the Democrats from moving forward.

[Tabasco]

Could be. But with the popular sentiment turning hard against these 'true beleivers', some idealistic veneers will start to crack in the face of present and future electoral defeat.

I'm convinced that underneath the surface of most 'true' conservatives is an opportunist waiting to sprout wings.

[BillyMae]

Hopefully, the repugs will go down in flames and Bush/Cheny will go out with the trash.
Then, maybe, the real conservatives can form a new party. In the meantime GO OBAMA!

[AlexeiJ]

Here's a little feel-good Barack imagery for everyone who is anxious about the outcome and needs a little break from phone banking:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf19H_sHMro&fmt=6

[bail me out]

Obama Landslide is coming to a theater near you, in a few hours.

[jeffp26]

This is actually great news.

It means we can pop the cork on the finest champagne shortly after 8pm EDT.

McCain has to win 5 of these 6? He'll be lucky to win one!!!

Sick a fork in his behind. He's done.

[bbridges1962]

COME ON NORTH CAROLINA !! We have to get out and vote...we are running a close race (too close),
and we want the world to know we are sorry for voting for BUSH the last two times. It is going to be cloudy and rainy, but you can always dry off later! We need to get rid of Dole and McCrory, too!
OBAMA/BIDEN...only hours away! I can feel the hope already !!!

[peter777]

Rick Davis-- unethical and a jerk besides. McCain deserves to go down in flames, if no other reason than McCain picked him to run his campaign. He had to know what type of dirty, mud-slinging campaign Davis and company would run. They have dug a very deep hole for the Republican Party, and they will not recover from it with the present leadership or by continuing to tow the line of radical right-wing cable network and talk radio. Nor will the plea for no taxes and no government save them.

[steamboat]

peter777, I'll admit I know very little about Rick Davis.....So could YOU inform us with your information and tell us about Davis? Who he is, positions he's held, his past, etc., etc. Since you said he's unethical and a jerk.

[ThatOne4Me]

He's a lobbyst.

[cheeriogirl]

Rick Davis is a lobbyist that has been taking money monthly from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack for several years, to the tune of over 20,000 a month. What did he do to earn this money?

NOTHING!

These payments merely provided ACCESS to John McCain, in the event he should win the election.

So why did Fannie and Freddie pay this money to Rick? Davis ASKED for it. If you want access to the white house in a McCain administration, filled with lobbyists, you pay up the lobbyist himself.

In street terms, Davis "shook them down".

How's that for the open and transparent government that John McCain says he is going to run?

Country First? What a joke!

[misspearl]

As an Obama supporter from the Buckeye State, let me apologize to the nation for "Joe The Plumber". Please understand America, he is NOT indicative of us here in Ohio. I think Obama is going in in a landslide, but probably without Ohio. I hope I'm wrong and I am working all day on Election Day for Obama in getting out the vote. Peace.

[puffthedragon]

Yes .. thank you for your post.. I have several family members from OH and they support OB... they are nothing like JTP.

[gorgonzola2]

JT plumb is bidding on e Bay for the fil thy tho ng of P a li n ret urned to Saks

[Dr Independents Day]

I'm here in Ohio too. There are a lot of McCain supporters in the suburbs where I live (at least they are more demonstrative). When I went to vote early for Obama however, I felt there were more Obama voters by the flyers they were carrying. I think it is going to be very close here in Ohio, but Obama will barely win it. We will see. I even know some Republicans that already voted for Obama here (they were moderate Republicans except on the issue of abortion (Catholics)). But, I think the wars that Republicans have waged has tipped the Catholic vote a little here in Ohio.

[realitycheck7]

all this talk about Pennsylvania....

Pennsylvania is not in play

it is not a swing state

Obama has a healthy margin there and this is sure as hell not the election where a formerly blue state is turning red. Red states are turning blue!

McCain is finished

[puffthedragon]

I am from PA.. and I hope you are so right..

[ddemos]

I grew up in the Phila. suburbs, and until now didn't realize, as James Carville says..."you've got Pittsburg on one end, Philadelphia on the other, and Alabama in the middle."

I hope my fellow keystoners will do us proud and go blue.

I now live in Los Angeles...so by Palin's brilliance, I am not a "real" American. Oh well, I voted early for Obama. I can't wait to see her off to Wasilla...never to return.

[Colingavignet]

It's a state where they use voting machines with no paper trail and that's what Mc Cain is counting on. We haven't seen any deibold letter promissing to deliver the state but that kind of thing usually comes out once all is done.

[realitycheck7]

I agree that any states where they use computerized machines is a danger because of programming fraud.

It occurred in Ohio and Florida in plain sight. we'll see

[Tahut]

If Obama takes Me,Vt,NH,Ma,RI,Ct,NY,NJ,De,Md,DC,Oh,Mi,Il Mn,Co,Ca,Or,Wa, and Hi, he gets 250 ev's and McCain gets 266.

That would leave Nv, NM, Ia, and Wi up for grabs. We know Obama has Nv and NM close to being in the bag so that leaves Ia and Wi. Ia doesn't carry enough to put him over by itself, but Wi does.

So McCain could be shooting at decoys going after those four.

[greatblue]

REPUBLICAN PARTY OF VIRGINIA HEAD JEFF FREDERICK CALLED COLIN POWELL'S ENDORSEMENT OF BARACK OBAMA HIS "LATEST ACT OF COWARDLY BETRAYAL." THIS IS THE SAME JEFF FREDERICK WHO, IN THE PRESENCE OF JOHN MCCAIN AND A TIME MAGAZINE REPORTER URGED VOLUNTEERS TO EQUATE BARACK OBAMA WITH OSAMA BIN LADEN.

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=17056

[haval2]

THE HELL WITH THE MC CAIN CAMPAIGN....SAVE OUR COUNTRY FROM FUNDAMENTALISM AND THE HATE TALK EXPRESS...........VOTE OBAMA / BIDEN

[mommadona]

Rick Davis' next 'career' move:

Manager of the meat department at your local grocery store.
Night manager for the 24/7 Taco Bell.
Head "barrista" at the local Starbucks
Assistant manager at your local JiffyLube.
Head salesman at the "gently used" Hertz rental car lot.
"Host" at the local Denny's - night shift.

[jusion]

If areas of southeastern Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and other rural areas end up, by some chance, costing Obama the presidency, the blame will be placed squarely on them and not the candidate who failed to woo them. Liberal pundits and mainstream media (such that a distinction exists) will immediately blame the intractable racism of white Americans for Obama's loss.
But in voting for Obama, wouldn't these blue-collar workers in the coal regions of our country be, ahem, "voting against their interests?", as the Democrats are fond of saying. Joe Biden first made it clear that he wanted no coal plants in America, caught in an impromptu Q&A on a rope line back in September. Obama quickly assured everyone that he's not anti-coal --- "Just look at my website!" --- but his San Francisco Chronicle comments reveal the cold indifference with which he views the economic livelihood of thousands of Ohioans and Pennsylvanians.

[Colingavignet]

Don't blame humans blame the machines, and the humans behind them

[puffthedragon]

WTF are you talking about.. I happen to live in this area ..

[MDM4REAL]

Rick Davis - The Manager of the Worst Campaign in American History.

[jusion]

And if McCain wins?

[spqesq]

The luckiest man in campaign history.

[Matt7]

Pigs will fly.

[EosBlue]

Wow, you have inside info on a McCain victory? With the current LONG odds, I could get well from the stock market crater with a bet on McCain IF you will guarantee it.

[muypolitico]

He will become the most expensive political/campaign consultant in the world. Will get to publish a book and be paid millions in advance.

As a "good" Republiclown, I am sure he is praying for a miracle.

[gorgonzola2]

he gets a free night to plun der car i bou bar bie

but he may hav oth er tas tes

[jusion]

McCain will certainly carry OH, FL, IN, NC and NV. CO and VI could go either way.
NM and maybe IO will probably be Obama's. However, McCain has still got a chance in the latter.

Pennsylvania is interesting though. Obama's recently revealed anti-coal remarks could cost him the Keystone State, where culture, history, and economy have long been dependent on the coal industry. If McCain manages to flip Pennsylvania, this election will be decided before the West Coasters have had a chance to vote.

[SMP]

Those "anti-coal" statements were just DEBUNKED by CNN TRUTH SQUAD.............................McCAIN AND PALIN ARE NOTHING BUT LIARS...............we just spent 8 yrs of government lieing ...NO MORE!!!!

[HorseIsAHorse]

McCain has no chance in IA - Selzer has Obama up by 17 in her last poll there, and nobody polls IA as well as she does. NM is certified Blue this time, too. NV has banked enough early votes for Obama, so color that one azure as well.

"Anti-coal remarks"? I guess you didn't read the transcript or listen to the actual audio. Thanks for playing, though.

[spqesq]

Born, raised and currently live and work in PA. I can't tell you a single coal mine in operation or name a single person I know, have known or know someone who knows or cares about anyone in the coal industry. I can tell you a lot of people are looking for work and having their homes foreclosed on though.

[AtTheMoon]

Coal people always make their presence known...most recently at the Harrisburg Clinton rally...they were handing out their free coal hats

[markusmarkus]

"CO and VI could go either way." The US Virgin Islands (VI) are key to a McIIIrd win??!!! I think you meant "VA" for Virginia. Latest polls show Obama with a lead of 6 to 9 points. While that lead is not insurmoutable, it's very unlikely that Johnny will win VA. Obama has a smaller lead in Ohio, but I think it's too close to call. Samo for Florida, Indiana and North Carolina. Nevada - Obama country.

Try again in 4 years. Maybe you'll have better "luck"!

[jusion]

You're right about "VA" for Virginia. We'll see about the rest.

[patrickgarret]

McCain is trailing in 11 of 12 polls in OH, all polls in VA, 10 of last 11 FL polls, tied in IN and NC... What information do you have? Just pulling #'s from your butt?