Election Results: McCain Campaign Manager On The Five Must-Win States

George Stephanopoulos writes this morning on McCain's must win states and his interview yesterday with McCain campaign manager Rick Davis. Go here to see a collection of pundits' predictions on the election.

Here are the six states to watch between 7pm and 8pm tomorrow night:



Virginia and Indiana after the last polls close at 7pm, Ohio and North Carolina after 7:30pm, and then Pennsylvania and Florida after 8pm.

These are the canaries in the coal mine.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis conceded on "This Week" that John McCain has to win five out of six of these states to have a viable path to the presidency.

He could get there by holding all of the Bush states -- Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina -- and losing Pennsylvania, and then sacrificing Iowa and New Mexico.

But he will then need to secure Nevada and Colorado and all the rest of the Bush states later in the evening.

Comments

[Witkacy]

Boy, how about the bang-up job that Rick Davis did on the McCain campaign, huh? Take Davis here, and Mark Penn on the other side, and you've got Peter Principle bookends.

[AddictedToHope]

Canary in the coal mine? Why am I reminded of Monty Python's "Dead Parrot" skit?

This parrot is dead.

No it's not, it's resting.

Look my friend, I know a dead parrot when I see one and I'm looking at one now. This parrot is deceased, bereft of life, it rests in peace. If you hadn't nailed it to the perch it would be pushing up daisies.

[koyak23]

And I think that Davis must be running the cheese shop...

[01202009]

It would be cool if HuffPo put up a thread where we could list the things that need to be done in the next two years like: Dump signing statements, Introduce a new Fairness Doctrine, etc. And then in the next four years like: Get rid of *America Votes* *No Child Left Behind* etc. *Cut Military Spending*. You all get the idea. Undo BushCo and teach a slew of Republicans how to do the Jail House Rock!

[Witkacy]

That sounds like a job for a whole new blog. I'm certain that someone will start such a thing - since the popular force and authority of the netroots or whatever you want to call all this will be perfectly obvious with the election of President Barack Obama.

[plankbob]

What's Joe the Tabulator's take on The Path to Victory?

[01202009]

LOL!

[IcedTee63]

Rick, that'll happen when flying pigs have lipstick on them. No diss to pigs...

[BIG JOHN]

REMEMBER THAT SONG, RUNNING ON EMPTY, RUNNING IN TO THE SUN BUT I'M RUNNING BEHIND.

[DoctorDonut]

nopers

go home older man and be nice to others

http://www.theweeklydonut.com/index.php/2008/10/16/john-mccain-hes-just-plain-scary-part-four/

[jdl51]

I think it will be an early night. (fingers crossed)

[justoverit333]

I live in Florida where anything can happen.
I can't believe I'm nervous about whether they
will count my absentee ballot.

OBAMA/BIDEN08

[me again]

You want to lose big-time, hire Rick Davis to manage your campaign.

[ebm]

If McBush wins then the fix was in. He is way to cool like Bush was when he stole the 2000, 2004 elections.

[Wiserone]

I often wondered if that is what McBush meant when he started spewing last week: "We've got 'em right where we want 'em".

[pilgrim7]

We feel the same way, ebm. You're right. He's acting way too cool - just like Bush did. Too eerie. Either he's a good poker player or he knows something else is up. His behavior is giving me the creeps.

[cmello2]

I am worried about that too. The GOP knows how to rig elections.
McCain was so smug before, during, and after the 3rd debate when he pulled his "Joe the Plumber" card out of his sleeve. I think "Joe the Plumber" was a plant from day 1 when he approached Obama in Ohio and asked that question about his fictious income.
What else does the GOP have up its sleeve???

[roshni]

If McBush wins, people are not going to take it like they did with Gore 2000.

[bluguy8]

. time for this guy to get a new job and get over it

[Wiserone]

And, just maybe, McBush will be serving his last term in the Senate. I'd bet book on that one. The Rethug's were just looking for an excuse to get rid of the Napolean Make-Believe Maverick and his loss might just give them the you-know-what to assist that along in Arizona.

[heartlandjim]

Vote, Obama supporters, vote!!!

[ptobe]

Snowball, meet Hell.

How do you like your chances?

There is absolutely no way, beyond massive fraud, that McCain can win this. I think we can all start to exhale just a little bit (but only a bit).

And while 2000 & 2004 should always prove cautionary tales for overconfidence - they both came down to a single state that was extremely tight. There is no tightness here at all: the average polling numbers for those who include cell phones (as they ALL should!) is something around 8 or 9 points for Obama. There are just waaaay to many states that have to have 5 - 10 point FLIPS in a single day - not going to happen.

As for the "Bradley Effect" - it doesn't exist. Never did. Bradley won the popular vote on election day (the whole theory has to do with voting booth conversions) - it was the absentee vote that lost it for him. And it was only one outlier poll that showed him with big lead - the other where much tighter (for more info, check out fivethirtyeight.com).

It's going to be a landslide in the EC, mark my words.

[ilovemycat]

Bradley Effect my ars. It was voter supression. The GOP have been doing this for years. They know how to cheat their way into the presidency. Lots of practice.

[pilgrim7]

DITTO!!!!!

[Wiserone]

Two things the Rovian Rethug's didn't calculate better. One: the number of earlier voters came out in droves. Two: the internet, yes, the internet, bloggers, 24 hour turnaround news and no longer just a cycle that was more predictable. Even though some didn't think it was that important, other than it was amusing to hear, that McBush didn't even know how to use a mouse, much less access email, spoke volumes to me and especially since Hillary announced her campaign ON the internet. Told me this was a guy that was still lock-step in the Republican neo-con, right-wing base and wasn't aware of how voters get but want their information in the process.

[man4ourseason]

New Hampshire surprised everyone when the polls showed Obama to win big, and instead Clinton won? Here is one reason why and why John MC Cain might win this election.

here is the Diebold vendor testifying to NH that the product is defective, and they went and approved it for our voting systems anyway!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCt-XAI-WMA

The issue is not just paper. NH uses paper ballots. But NH doesn't COUNT the great majority of our paper ballots. NH has GIVEN AWAY 81% of our paper ballot votes to a private corporation, Diebold. And NH has told Diebold, "count 81% of our ballots in secret, in a black box, where nobody can see how you are counting them or if the count is accurate and secure, and we will TRUST DIEBOLD with our democracy.­" NH election officials and legislators seem to think this is OK, to hand over 81% of our votes to a private corporation with a history of fraud, deception, and partisan interests.

Now you know why MC Cain may win, and why we cannot accept that win. What do you think about this kind of democracy where the people do not count the votes and what can we do about it?

[jorydozier]

I see no evidence to encourage the Republicans that any of this is going to happen. Please, all Obama supporters, VOTE!

[AmericasMostGangsta]

Palin/Wurzelbacher 2012

[bluguy8]

is this a horror movie ?

[dannyhollywood]

i certainly hope so. but it should be Worstburger/Paling - even easier to beat than McBush/Palin.

[dannyhollywood]

I certainly hope so. Worstburger/Pailing will be easier to beat than McBush/Pailing.

[dannyhollywood]

I certainly hope so. Worstbooger/Paling will be easier to beat than McBush/Pailing

[zer0rez]

LoL

Please, bring that ticket in 2012. The only person that knows less about foreign affairs than Palin is Joe the non-plumber. Can you spell Landslide v2.0?