Schumer, DSCC Predict Victory In Tight Oregon Race

On Wednesday, Sen. Chuck Schumer predicted to several Democratic insiders that Jeff Merkley will unseat incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon, multiple sources confirmed. At least one DSCC staffer is also telling prominent Democratic fundraisers that Merkley will prevail, according to an email obtained by the Huffington Post.

With Smith currently leading by 9,000 votes, the predictions might seem like a bold move, or perhaps a way to boost spirits, but Democrats in the state echo that same confidence.

The reason is that Multnomah county, home to liberal bastion Portland, still has approximately 160,000 votes left to be counted. With 49 percent of precincts there reporting on Wednesday, votes were running 2 to 1 in the Democrat's favor. The only frustration for Merkley's campaign is that the urban metropolis is counting ballots at a clip of 6,000 per hour. Meanwhile, rural counties in Oregon, which hold many fewer outstanding votes, are processing votes faster on Wednesday, meaning that Smith may appear to increase his lead for a brief period this evening.

"There's a little confusion for some people as to why statewide totals remain what they are. But we're extremely confident," said Matt Canter on the Merkley campaign. "The ballots are there, in Multnomah and Lane counties."

Merkley leads 57-39 in the 45 percent of Lane precincts that have been counted so far. The Merkley aide said no Republican counties that have yet to count votes are giving Smith a similar advantage. The state's populous, suburban Washington county so far shows a couple-thousand vote lead for the Democratic candidate -- though Smith has been closing that margin today.

"Even if he was to close that gap in Washington county and go up a few hundred votes, what's still outstanding in Multnomah is enough," Canter said.

On Thursday, the Oregonian quoted a respected local pollster standing by his election-night prediction that Merkley would pull out a victory. "I still think Merkley is going to win," Oregon pollster Tim Hibbitts said. "But it's going to be tight, and a lot tighter than I thought it was going to be. We shall see."

Comments

[moonie1]

Let's not forget to thank candidate David Brownlow for his important role in upsetting the incumbent's apple cart here. Finally, a little payback for some of the votes siphoned off by Nader back in 2000 in the Gore vs. Bush debacle.

Just another Oregonian hoping 'ol Gordo well as he goes back to countin' peas before freezing them.

Go Senator Elect Merkley!

[spandautoseattle]

Ah, Schumer. He of the Muk@sey-en­dorsement-­fame. Did he ever apologize?
There are so many wrongs to right, where to begin.
Besides, any irregularities reported in OR since tight races like this were the GOp's target in the ol' youknowwhatgame? Would someone share his/her knowledge? Thanks.

[OregonMamma]

No irregularities that I'm aware of. We are entirely vote-by-mail and it seems to work really well in terms of avoiding some of the election-day voter suppression tactics. I voted almost 2 weeks ago. I am hoping that the projection holds true and Smith is outta there!

[sacrebleu]

Ciao, Gordon. Hope you have fun back home in Clodhoppolis--I mean Pendleton--playing with your vegetables and exploiting your undocumented workers.

[OregonMamma]

Playing with your vegetables­...bwaaaha­aahaaa! Thanks for the laugh!

[KarlaElisa]

The Oregonian has declared a winner in the U.S. Senate election: Your new Senator-elect is Jeff Merkley.

The latest numbers - both here at BlueOregon and at the Oregonian:

691,501 Jeff Merkley
691,119 Gordon Smith
79,004 David Brownlow

[KarlaElisa]

The prediction here is it's Merkley by a little over 54,000 votes!

SEE YA GORDIE!!

WOO HOO!

I'm starting to think Oregon turned out a record high for voters this year.

We should be over 65%...maybe as high as 80%.

[mrcontinental]

You're looking good Oregon! Keep up the good work.

[CamJam]

Per http://www.Katu.com and http://www.KGW.com (local news channels)
OREGON is STILL counting votes.

However, a huge amount of ballots from my area in Multnomah and also from Lane County are still getting counted and may just give Merkley the win.

Currently, Merkley in the lead (from KGW) :

47% Jeff Merkley (652726 votes)

47% Gordon Smith (650262 votes)

5% Dave Brownlow (75162 votes)

Precincts: 763 of 1000 - 76%
Updated: 11-05-2008 04:50 PM (Pacific time)

[Denemator]

6200 votes now in favor of Merkley 77% reporting

[CamJam]

I forgot to add who I voted for and why.

I voted for Jeff Merkley . It irked me to hear Gordon Smith praise Sarah Palin during the debates:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdLYvz1EiNY

[fredamae]

God I hope so. Smith must go, I voted for Merkley as did my county.

[khiva]

These folks are predicting Merkley will win by 50,000 votes:

http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=2356

[rigormrtis]

Smith is a moderate Republican senator. Name another Republican senator who sponsored hate crime legislation?

Beware painting everything with a broad brush.

[choppedliver]

OK, here's an Oregonian with a fine brush: SMITH IS NO MODERATE. He voted with Bush 90+% of the time. If that's moderate, Lord help us all.

GO MERKLEY!!! THANK YOU AMERICA!!!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!

[rigormrtis]

And most of the democrats voted with Bush to go to war, grant him war-time powers, continue surveillance, continue funding the "war", etc.

What was the 10% that he did not vote with Bush on? That is important. Also needed is an analysis if the IMPACT of each piece of legislation. I'll wager that every one items Smith sided with Bush on doubt did not carry the same impact as any other.

Who determined the "90%", anyway? the same folks that called Obama "The most liberal senator ever"? Don't believe every number bandied about. Both sides distort statistics. Obama is not the most liberal senator and I bet "90%" is a cherry picked number, also. Was that legislation passed? Was that legislation simply proposed? Other Dems vote for it?

If you think the proper thing is to have a kneejerk reaction and vote contrary to ANYTHING/EVERYTHING the other side has, how much better does that make you? Is your expectation that every Rep should vote in opposition to any Dem legislation, no matter how good it is? That's just irrational opposition based upon party ideology.

Have you ever considered that some people have values that stretch across ideologies? A democrat who opposes abortion or one that is pro-environment, pro-universal healthcare AND pro-gun ownership?

I abhor Bush; I voted for Obama. I also voted for Smith. Why? Merkley will be a party stooge. There should be some opposition in a system based upon checks and balances.

[OregonMamma]

He's not a moderate. He has made a few votes that are to be commended. He has made some votes that would appear should be commended if it weren't for the fact that they were done close to election time in order to portray himself as "breaking ranks" with the party and (dare I say it?) being a "maverick."

90% of the time he toes the party line, then drags out the moderate label when he's up for reelection. His final ad even ended with the line "Gordon Smith, moderate, for US Senate." I almost hurled...

[fredamae]

No, He is Not! He supports the Bush Doctrine"......

[RedKnuckles]

I think he's been painted with a broad bush.

[moonie1]

If by moderate you mean that he changes like a chameleon when election time rolls around, then indeed, Mr. Smith would seem a moderate. He has worked on some legislation with our other U.S. senator, Senator Ron Wyden, and did work on legislation that many of us would deem important (Mental health awareness and equity in health care coverage, Anti-gay bashing legislation after Matthew Shepard's murder, and calling Bush's actions in Iraq "almost criminal"), but most of the time he cancelled out Senator Wyden's vote by voting with Bush and the Republicans. I'll take another Democrat to back President Obama, thank you very much!

[Deni]

I live in Ruby Red Lake County, Oregon. While Smith won easily I was surprised to see that I'm not the only Progressive. There are close to 1,000 of us! Hopefully Merkley will win yet!!!

[OregonMamma]

Go Lake County progressives!!! Fort Rock rocks! :-)

[JackND]

Merkley leads by nearly 2000 now.

[NWBrunette]

Hallelujah. We need all the progressive Dems we can get. And Smith has been nothing but a do-nothing bush-supporter who donned sheep's clothing six months before every election.