Nate Silver: Don't Blame Prop 8 On Black And Latino Voters

FiveThirtyEight:

Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California's black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. Exit polls suggest that first-time voters -- the vast majority of whom were driven to turn out by Obama (he won 83 percent [!] of their votes) -- voted against Prop 8 by a 62-38 margin. More experienced voters voted for the measure 56-44, however, providing for its passage.

Now, it's true that if new voters had voted against Prop 8 at the same rates that they voted for Obama, the measure probably would have failed. But that does not mean that the new voters were harmful on balance -- they were helpful on balance. If California's electorate had been the same as it was in 2004, Prop 8 would have passed by a wider margin.

Read the whole story: FiveThirtyEight

Comments

[JohnBisceglia]

08:38 PM on 11/18/2008

There have been MANY civil rights stuggles throughout history. For many of us the Civil Rights Movement of the 60's is our reference point, but it was hardly the first nor last civil rights movement in our human history. No one gets a prize for the most oppression, nor can we pin PROP 8's defeat by any race.

Our present fight is VERY different today. We have FACEBOOK, MY SPACE, and YOU TUBE. With one click we can inform thousands of upcoming protests and actions. We also have a "minority" that has some members with SUBSTANTIAL cash in their pockets; a minority where some pay incredibly high taxes. Charles Merrill just discussed his own support of the National Equality Tax Protest today on the Ron Reagan Show on AIR AMERICA; GOOGLE it.

YES - times are a-changin'. We will make an incredible statement on April 15th with the National Equality Tax Protest. EQUALITY will be SIMPLE when we simply include EVERYONE.

[Free2Speak]

03:26 AM on 11/14/2008

Here's some facts that you wont find in any of the reports blaming or trying to exonerating blacks on the passage of Prop 8.

California total population is a little more than 35,000,000.

Whites 16,000,000
Hispanics 13,000,000
Asians 4.000,000
Blacks 2,000.000

You do the math,it obvious where the votes came from to pass Prop 8,and it not blacks.

[antaeus]

10:43 AM on 11/14/2008

Nobody is laying Prop. 8 at the feet of blacks.

Just as happened after Prop. 187 in 1994, which many Latinos saw as mean and unfair, and the passage of which ruined the Republican party in CA, people are wondering why a majority of African Americans supported 8, as they had also done with 187.

[Free2Speak]

05:05 PM on 11/14/2008

You mean the so-called 70% of blacks who are located only in 9 of the 58 counties in California.If you're one of the hundreds of thousands of asians,whites,and hispanics who voted for Prop 8 sit back and watch black take the blame is business as usual.It like saying if only 3 blacks in California and 2 vote for Prop 8(70%) black would be attacked for causing Prop 8 passage regardless of the thousands of hispanics,asians, and whites that voted for it.

[antaeus]

07:27 PM on 11/13/2008

Just like the Mormons used a base of operations from out of state to bedevil the affairs of California, so are there some out-of-state bloggers making mischief and stirring the pot about things they aren't experiencing firsthand.

If you haven't seen what is actually happening in the streets here, what is actually written on the signs, how the great majority of thousands are behaving, then you don't have a right to pass judgment. You are just stirring up divisiveness and bad feelings.

[glfrgrl]

06:00 PM on 11/13/2008

Since the "Yes on 8" side truly believed they were doing what was best to save "traditional" marriage and "protect" children, perhaps clergy from all denominations and faiths should encourage their parishioners, particularly those in the AA and Latino communities, to actually participate in marriage. There has been a sharp increase in nonmarital births since 2002 (2001 statistics from the CDC indicated 42% of all Hispanic births, 68% of AA births and 28% of non-Hispanic white births were born out of wedlock). It appears rather hypocritical for people "of faith" to vote to take away the rights of a minority while many opt not to participate in that right themselves.
I worry about what the result of this vote will do to the children of LGBT couples. They deserve parents who are married and who, with great consideration, had them, either by adoption or in vitro, by choice- not simply biology.
Perhaps a more effective means to "save (hetero) marriage" would to amend the constitution and ban adultery and/or divorce.
I am truly happy to live in Connecticut and am so proud of my state and its citizens who voted No on Question 1, thus allowing marriages to commence yesterday.

[bubbles54]

04:49 PM on 11/13/2008

I ma sick and tired of minorities being scapegoated for this issue. The gay movement thought that if they just convinced upper middle class white people to accept gay marriage that everybody else would just follow. If you want to win an election in CA, you have to include ALL Californians. You can't dismiss some voters as The Other and still expect to win.

[antaeus]

04:54 PM on 11/13/2008

Asking why it happened is not the same thing as "scapegoating."

The same public debate occurred after the Prop. 187 vote in 1994, when many discussed the significance of the fact that African Americans supported a measure that most Latinos saw as mean and punitive.

We need less sickness and tiredness and more rational explanation.

[MoeB]

05:48 PM on 11/13/2008

True, it is not the same. However, the APPROACH is where the problem started. The gay community didn't simply ASK the black community WHY they voted yes on 8, they simply BLAMED them for the proposition passing...and some of the blame was VERY rage-filled.

As I've stated before, a basic understanding is what is needed by the gay community in order to help fix this problem. First, the gay community (specifically the non-ethnic segment) should realize that the church is VERY important in the black community. If not for black churches in say, Gary, where I grew up, neighborhoods would not exist. The only assistance some of these places get is from the church community. Second, for quite some time, it was the only place where blacks could go and organize for political and social causes (that whole lack of rights and representation in the past), so blacks tend to vote the way that their church encourages them to (especially older black voters--who turn out in MUCH larger numbers than younger black voters).

So if you want to fix the problem, gay community reps need to speak with black pastors, deacons, priests, and preachers to argue THEIR point of view (which is correct), and take a minute to understand the black church's POV.

[Tanyars5]

06:42 PM on 11/13/2008

Just as the republicans did when they wanted to energize their base they decided to scapegoat black people..state we were responsible with the economy tanking with our mortgage defaults etc......it worked they got all those racists to go to the McCain rallies. The gay community needed to energize their base. All of these gay racists came out and decided to march on mormons and whomever else they wanted to march. Scapegoating blacks is an old tired trick.......Blacks are not going to take it anymore............period....it is no longer about gay marriage it is a about racism..........
Bill Oreilly showed some gay men intimidating some old white woman at their rally......I mean these gay people at these rallies are idiots......you don't do that do old women............have they no shame????? The gay community will take a big hit for their ignorant behavior.........if they want to claim their civil rghts are being violated they need to study the civil rights movement........their actions are more like a mad mob of fools...not civil rights marches of the sixties

[antaeus]

07:24 PM on 11/13/2008

You really are a hysterical string of cliche, one after the other, aren't you?

BTW, isn't calling someone "fool" named the one unforgivable sin in the Bible?

[antaeus]

02:24 PM on 11/13/2008

How do white gay activists speak to the (admittedly non-monolithic) black community?

To draw historical "analogy" is faulted as an attempt to "equate."
Head scratching over sociological dynamics becomes "blame."
Specific push-back against particular AA congregations that took a public stance in support of 8 is decried as "racism."

How can we start a dialogue when the attempt is invalidated from the beginning?

[Speakupper]

08:13 PM on 11/14/2008

Here are some folks that are doing making progress building bridges. Worth following up on:

http://site.pfaw.org/site/PageServer?pagename=issues_equality_prop_8_memo

[HHarvey]

11:02 AM on 11/13/2008

That's what I've been saying Nate. In 2004 it passed by a bigger margin than this year. Technically, if you want to look at it, I would say the state of California where I live is divided in half on the issue. We've come much farther than 2004 with people's perceptions about gay marriage, however I disagree that it was not the latino vote. Here in CA a major portion of our state is latino and they came out to vote in record numbers this year more so than ever before. I think that is why the percentage is higher, but it is also why it did not pass. The latino population in California is heavily entrenched in the catholic church.

[bubbles54]

04:51 PM on 11/13/2008

Latinos voted for this measure 53/47. So stop making it seem like Latinos voted overwhelmingly for this issue.

[cjinx]

10:23 AM on 11/13/2008

Aren't the Mormons the same people that believed in having multiple wives??? If that's the case why can't gays/lesbians get married? Its no one's business what someone chooses to do in their bedrooms. I say let them all get married and/or divorced the way the rest of us do! United we stand, divided we fall.

[HHarvey]

11:06 AM on 11/13/2008

To be fair the mormon church in Utah condemned plural marriages a long time ago. What you see there are fringe mormons who live outside the big cities in small towns that cling to the purist philosophies of the mormon church. Personally I am more concerned with the Mormon church trying to dabble in politics in other states. Perhaps we should take a closer look at the mormon church and shine a glaring spotlight on them. We already know how divisive and bigoted the catholic church can be.

[Rog49Thomas]

09:27 AM on 11/13/2008

Wait a minute, Nate, you're advocating that we go against our history and our national tradition?

[Rockwell]

09:20 AM on 11/13/2008

I am a white male. I've spent my entire life being told I'm part of the most bigotted group on the planet. Fair enough because it's true. And I've done my part to change that reality.

I'm also gay. And while i don't blame AA and Latinos for the passage of Prop 8, I sure wish they'd at least have the guts to recognize the bigotry in their own communities. Instead all I'm hearing is wah! wah! wah! It wasn't our fault!

Humans are bigots. We are tribal creatures who don't much like the "other". We have to recognize that and fight against it all the time. Just because you are a memeber of a minority (gay, AA, Latino, whatever) doesn't mean you get a free pass to dump on other minorities.

[MoeB]

05:57 PM on 11/13/2008

Actually, what you are hearing is 'blacks aren't the sole reason that prop 8 passed, so stop dumping on just us!'. And blacks have a point. The anger of the gay community should be directed at EVERYONE who voted FOR prop 8! Singling out one or two specific groups and saying "for shame!" to them doesn't do ANYTHING to help the problem.

Trying to figure out WHY (religion is the elephant in the room) they voted the way they did is more constructive.

And it is not that we don't "like" the other, it's that we tend to FEAR what we don't know.

[Rockwell]

11:10 PM on 11/13/2008

I hear your point. And I completely agree that blacks and latinos were not the sole reason Prop 8 passed.

The sad thing is that Whites, especially white males, live in a perpetual cloud of blissful ignorance, having never been the object of discrimination. In fact, when a white guy walks into the room, he starts out on third base while everyone else has to actually bat. Just look at our current president. Do you think anybody that stupid could have gotten anywhere near the Oval Office if his name was Martinez instead of Bush?

What's so sad about Prop 8 is that people who know exactly what it feels like to be discriminated against (blacks, latinos) happily walked into a voting booth and pulled the lever for government enforced discrimination.

Maybe a white male could claim ignorance. No black or latino could make such an excuse.

[gps8001]

08:25 AM on 11/13/2008

As a gay AA, it is so tiresome to hear people/gays who aren't black try to tell me what the reality of my experience is.

[AnotherTry]

08:31 AM on 11/13/2008

You don't have to listen.

[gps8001]

08:34 AM on 11/13/2008

when people speak, i listen.

[AnotherTry]

07:55 AM on 11/13/2008

Obama ignoring this issue is the reason for the division. He made such an eloquent speech on race but couldn't be bothered to do the same for equality. Now we are seeing the results of his double talk. Thanks Obama.

[gps8001]

08:19 AM on 11/13/2008

wah wah wah

[AnotherTry]

08:25 AM on 11/13/2008

Yes, the black president can do no wrong, even when he is denying you your dignity.

What a sad sycophant you are.

[HHarvey]

11:10 AM on 11/13/2008

Maybe you are as informed as you pretend to be. I read and saw an interview he gave on TV about this issue where he stated his views very clearly. He believes marriage is between a man and woman, but is against anyone trying to take away a groups civil rights. He said he would vote "NO on prop 8". How much clearer did you want him to be? He doesn't need to be a cheerleader for no on prop 8 he needs to become president first. Take comfort in the fact that he can now appoint supreme court judges who will be fair towards civil rights.

[antaeus]

11:30 AM on 11/13/2008

You might have a point about not being a cheerleader . . . in 2008. But I suggest that as states continue to move in the right direction (marriages in Connecticut began yesterday) the pressure to do the right thing and stop trying to walk a Clintonian fine line will become impossible for him. Get ready for 2012.

[sextonfan]

02:18 AM on 11/13/2008

I think everyone--regardless of their race/sex/orientation--has the right to be ordinary. And ordinary means being wrong on some issues and right on others. It means being republican or democrat, married or single. Ordinary isn't something you have to earn, it's a fundamental right. And one that blacks and latinos have as well. Sounds simple, but it seems some people on this site need to be reminded.

Blacks and Latinos are ordinary like everyone else, and that means white folks. And like everyone else, (white folks) some of them have prejudices. Some of them (like white folks) believe in a religion that looks upon homosexuality as a sin. On the other hand, other black and latino folks (like other white folks) believe in marriage equality.

And it's true that some black rappers are very vocally homophobic (just as it's true that some white folks--some pastors/priests most vocally--are as well). But just as you don't assume that ordinary (white) folks are all homophobic, don't assume that ordinary (blacks and latinos) are as well. Even though it's difficult to tell when you live in the United States, black people and Latinos are ordinary, and like ordinary (white) folks they hold diverse views.

Just saying.

[sextonfan]

02:23 AM on 11/13/2008

Sorry about the typos in the post above. It's late:(

[houstonbch]

12:24 AM on 11/13/2008

Please keep this in mind people...The Mormon church spent MILLIONS of dollars to pass prop 8. Millions.

Don't you think it would be possible for them influence the news and pass the blame for prop 8 to black churches? Not only will it create disparity between two minority groups, it will keep the focus from them. (This is the same media that is so easily influenced by celebrity gossip that they forgot to report on the past 8 years of White House ineffectiveness.)

Please keep your minds sharp and do not allow them to turn us against each other.

[cjinx]

10:19 AM on 11/13/2008

Amen!

[Tanyars5]

10:33 PM on 11/12/2008

I am watching CNNN and this gay guy said that they are going to march on old folks home..........because they are really the true cause of that prop going down.????????????......they are not talking about AA yet......they better not...they better not march on the black churches.........

[antaeus]

10:50 PM on 11/12/2008

If we do, then they'll just have to suck it up.

Why do you hate gay people? Why do you come on this site stirring the pot.

I bear witness to the real love in the streets of L.A. and S.F.

All you have is CNN and anonymous blogs and a need to stir up division.

[kutkreata]

11:11 PM on 11/12/2008

Antaeus. I had nothing against gay people before all of this. But you know, it kind of changes your perspective on gay folk when you turn on the radio to liberal & independent talk radio shows & hear gay callers calling in dogging out Black people for "passing" Prop 8. Then you get on the internet, and the blogosphere is lit up with gay bloggers dogging out Black people for "passing" Prop 8. Then you turn on the tv & you've got commentators using a bogus exit poll of 2000 people with no verifiable methods to represent 300,000 Black people in California to explain why Prop 8 passed. Then to top it off, you've got Rachael Maddow using the same exit poll needing to be "talked down" by a Black professor about why Black people "passed" Prop 8 . It kinda ticks one off.

[kutkreata]

11:00 PM on 11/12/2008

I was watching Campbell Brown earlier. The lawyer said that the chance of Prop 8 being repealed in court was not good & that it would probably come back to a vote. They're not going to do jack to our churches cause they know they need Black folks to repeal it. That's why the focus is off of the "Usual Scapegoats" (Black folks) and back on the Mormons.

[antaeus]

12:00 AM on 11/13/2008

Good grief. I'm glad I actually have black friends and neighbors and don't have to base my perceptions on anonymous bloggers.

For those of us here in L.A., the focus was on the Mormons from day 1. On the Wednesday after the election it was the only focus of those of us on the streets.

There isn't some kind of media conspiracy afoot. Those of us who were marching were out there against the organized religions from the start.