Franken Camp: We're Doing Even Better Than Reported

Aides to Al Franken told reporters on Thursday afternoon that their chances of winning a recount election against Norm Coleman looked far more positive than even Wednesday evening's optimistic reports suggest.

Speaking to reporters in person and on phone, Marc Elias, the Franken campaign's chief counsel, said that the early recount results (which decreased the margin separating the Democratic challenger and Coleman by 43 votes) actually underestimated the ground gained.

"We do in fact feel very good about how the first day of the recount went... We believe that through last night, 26.5 percent of the ballots were hand counted. And that represents slightly three percent more of the Coleman vote or Republican vote than was true during the election. And nevertheless we picked up a significant chunk of votes," said Elias. "In other words, the ballots counted yesterday were more Republican than the total ballot pool will end up being. It was a slightly redder pile versus what it will finally be. And not withstanding that slightly redder view, we picked up votes yesterday. In fact, we believe that number is higher than the 43 votes reflected on the Secretary of State's official margin."

Elias declined to reveal just how many recount votes the campaign has internally calculated, saying it would lead to endless speculation and inspection. He added that the campaign did feel "very good about how the first day of the recount went." And while it's possible that Coleman will expand the margin as the recount proceeds, the Franken team was heartened that their position had improved even in traditionally Republican areas.

On Wednesday, it was reported by the Minnesota Secretary of State's office that Franken had narrowed Coleman's lead from 215 votes to 172, with over 80% of ballots left to be sorted out. A study by Dartmouth Professor Michael C. Herron showed that the majority of the undervote -- the difference between the total number of individuals who voted and the total number of individuals who voted in the Senate race -- came from predominantly Democratic counties. While many of the estimated 34,000 undervotes were likely deliberate (people intentionally voted in the presidential contest but not the Senate one), there seemed likely to be enough non-deliberate undervotes to push Franken to victory.

"Yesterday's reports should put to rest the false notion that the vote shift we saw during the canvas [the final official reporting of ballots] were, in the Coleman campaign's word, 'implausible and statistically dubious,'" said Franken spokesperson Andy Barr. "We are feeling confident. And in Al's words, cautiously optimistic, about the directions things are headed."

Comments

[Vinca]

The race between Franken and Coleman, is very close, One just couldn't predict who'll win, HOPE IT'S FRANKEN

[TOOO]

I hate to say it, but it sounds like Mr. Elias is trying to put some positive spin on the vote. Remember: McCain was thought to be "closing the gap", too - and we know how THAT turned out (fortunately!).

Still, the best of luck to Mr. Franken. I'm still hedging my bets on this one.

[StephenJK]

He's good enough, he's smart enough and gosh darnit, people like him.

Y'now, some days people don't count your votes right. It's not their fault and it's not your fault. That's just the way things are sometimes. It doesn't mean you're not a good enough candidate for the job. It just means someone didn't have enough coffee to do their job properly. We don't want to burn those people at the stakes anymore than we would want to burn ourselves. We just have to keep telling ourselves....

We're good enough, we're smart enough and gosh darnit, people like us.

[Okieborn]

I an so very Glad to hear some good News about Al Franken !!, after President elect Obamas Clinton / Lieberman Picks I am not real sure where the" HOPE WENT" !!!!

[Rogman66]

At this point it looks like it's going to be pretty close, with the contested ballots determining who the winner is. Hope their canvasing board is fair and does their job correctly.

[BubbasBait]

From the looks of his picture, he's doing WAY better, just ask the dude behind him.

[tcuoohjohn]

Over at FreeRepublic the knuckledraggers are already lambasting Pawlenty for not calling out the Minnesota National Guard and declaring Coleman the winner.

[Roll451]

I'm not sure about the validity of this analysis - so far Franken's biggest gain has come in a county that went to Coleman by a 6 to 5 ratio.

[tcuoohjohn]

The point is that the counties on the end of the recount are primarily urban areas that are traditionally Democratic. If Franken is gaining ground in more Republican areas then he should gain significantly greater ground in predominately democratic precincts.

[bigironal25]

Even if the horse- faced one wins the re-count,he still is in trouble for taking money that was not on the up and up so he loses any way he goes!

[rbarry647]

I will be watching the detailed returns by county as they come in - Go Al
55% recounted and only 136 behind

http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenco.html

[Patton]

I love it when people make fun of Franken because he's a comedian." Oh how could a comedian be any good at governance.." better to elect an actor ,or the son of a failed vp. Meanwhile the most astute political commentary is being made by comedians Stewart, Colbert, Maher, and yes Franken.

[KQuarksSuperKollider]

No actors especially ones that were steroid ridden weight lifters like Schwartz..... and Ventura are much better politicians. Yeah riiiiiiiiiight.

[waitsmn]

Great comment. I love Al and his satire. You can learn a lot from it except if you're small minded. He's brilliant. I love MN! He does too! If called upon to investigate the waste of our tax dollars - he will. Go Al!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mustang Sally]

Excellent observations! Your examples of failed politicians and their earlier professions was spot on!

Al is intelligent, passionate and cares deeply - I'm looking forward to calling him SENATOR Franken.

[nevadagirl]

Yet they have no problem with Ahnold being governer of Cahleefohnia.

[jbeach]

Nor are there every any problems mentioned with Fred Thompson or Saint Reagan.

[IAB]

Go back to Stuart Smiley....this gig ain't gonna work for you, Al...simply because Senators on both sides of the aisle don't want you in their house...

[shockmagog]

It's Stuart Smalley. At least now that the Bush Crime Family is being hosed off the sidewalk, Franken won't have to do any more USO tours:

'Later he visited Iraq where he headlined two USO shows while traveling with Russell Burnham, the U.S. Army Soldier of the Year. Franken has done seven USO tours to date, his most recent being in mid-December 2006.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Franken

False equivalence seems to be the last Republican fall back position. The Republican side of the House is irrelevant, and it's a fact that the Democrats want Franken in there as senator.

[Mustang Sally]

Good response! Thanks for reminding folks about his USO tours.

He made quite an infantile (maybe 4th grade?) comment with innuendo, (invalid) supposition and no substance.

Thanks for providing intelligent commentary.

[nevadagirl]

Harvard graduate and bestselling author. A real slacker.

[Carolab]

I looked at the sample ballots and I gotta say both sides had some "questionable calls" but Coleman's side had some ridiculous ones.

[Aslanspal]

have to give Minnesota credit they run a pretty good election

[Carolab]

Thanks. I participated in a lot of the changes.

[Cookie100]

Pawlenty is not a bad guy for being a Republican governor, in a Dem state. My husband and I have a business in Minnesota, so my husband travelers there every month.
He stays at The Holiday Inn Metrodome on Washington, and had just gotten off the bridge before it collapsed.
I was watching the news and told HIM what had happened, he was seeing ambulances in his rear view mirror, but really didn't understand what was happening.
All I can say is, if a Dem had been governor when that happened, you'd never have heard the end of it!
If 9-11 had happened when Gore was Pres, the GOP would have screamed at the top of their lungs!
They would STILL be screaming, you can't trust a Dem to keep you safe. And the fools of this country, voted for the clown again, and then they voted for the old man!
It takes a lot of nerve to cover up so much incompetence! Bush forever will be known as the WORST PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF AMERICA! No one will even publish his memoirs.
HE WILL BE SHUNNED! NO LIBRARY, NO NOTHING. JUST WHAT HE DESERVES.
WHAT DID PAULSON DO WITH $350 BILLION OF OUR MONEY?

[SpaghettyIrish]

You're so right. That double standard makes my head explode. Except for the thing about the library. Texas Christian University, who apparently believe Jesus needs more company among the executed.

[CaptD]

What ever happened to the 3 checks that Coleman took but did not declare?

[planetjeffy]

are you talking about the checks his wife got for the "work" she never did or the checks he got to pay for his clothes or the checks he got for his apartment in DC or the checks for the utilities for that apartment? Actually, those weren't check - they were just paid for - but checks sounds better.

[Cookie100]

He bought suits