Franken Camp: We're Doing Even Better Than Reported

Aides to Al Franken told reporters on Thursday afternoon that their chances of winning a recount election against Norm Coleman looked far more positive than even Wednesday evening's optimistic reports suggest.

Speaking to reporters in person and on phone, Marc Elias, the Franken campaign's chief counsel, said that the early recount results (which decreased the margin separating the Democratic challenger and Coleman by 43 votes) actually underestimated the ground gained.

"We do in fact feel very good about how the first day of the recount went... We believe that through last night, 26.5 percent of the ballots were hand counted. And that represents slightly three percent more of the Coleman vote or Republican vote than was true during the election. And nevertheless we picked up a significant chunk of votes," said Elias. "In other words, the ballots counted yesterday were more Republican than the total ballot pool will end up being. It was a slightly redder pile versus what it will finally be. And not withstanding that slightly redder view, we picked up votes yesterday. In fact, we believe that number is higher than the 43 votes reflected on the Secretary of State's official margin."

Elias declined to reveal just how many recount votes the campaign has internally calculated, saying it would lead to endless speculation and inspection. He added that the campaign did feel "very good about how the first day of the recount went." And while it's possible that Coleman will expand the margin as the recount proceeds, the Franken team was heartened that their position had improved even in traditionally Republican areas.

On Wednesday, it was reported by the Minnesota Secretary of State's office that Franken had narrowed Coleman's lead from 215 votes to 172, with over 80% of ballots left to be sorted out. A study by Dartmouth Professor Michael C. Herron showed that the majority of the undervote -- the difference between the total number of individuals who voted and the total number of individuals who voted in the Senate race -- came from predominantly Democratic counties. While many of the estimated 34,000 undervotes were likely deliberate (people intentionally voted in the presidential contest but not the Senate one), there seemed likely to be enough non-deliberate undervotes to push Franken to victory.

"Yesterday's reports should put to rest the false notion that the vote shift we saw during the canvas [the final official reporting of ballots] were, in the Coleman campaign's word, 'implausible and statistically dubious,'" said Franken spokesperson Andy Barr. "We are feeling confident. And in Al's words, cautiously optimistic, about the directions things are headed."

Comments

[113]

I really hope Franken wins this!

[bobdob]

I live in Minnesota, and Minnesota is not Florida. There will be no Supreme Court decision this time. The winner will win, fair and square, and the loser will go back to civilian life.

[Zofomofo]

I am praying to all of your Gods, that Al wins.

[roshni]

What does Nate Silver say?
He's the ultimate authority on polls and I believe him.

[ByersL]

I agree. Who would have guessed we'd all be into statistics again? He did a great job, and I ONLY watched his after the polls went nuts the week before the election.

[daedalus43]

The polls DIDN'T go nuts before the election. See: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm

All of that was a media ruse to generate anxiety and hope for Republicans.

[AdV2k1]

Republicans will be so angry if he wins. Thats why i support Franken 100% .

[BigPictureReg]

This, from the guy who gave us......

2000 - "I'll bring honor and dignity to the White House"

2004 - "I've got political capital and I'm going to use it"

The Moral of This Story - Big Hat, No Cattle.

[HoraceOvidson]

Frankenly, my dear, I do give a damn.

[Chardin]

Go get 'em Stuart
peope like you...

[LucieLee]

How exciting this is gonna be if Franken pulls out the win!!!

[ikesambobby]

Go Al!!!!!!!!!!

[roshni]

Rooting for Al - laugh all the way to the senate!

[tyger]

These ballots are used to give the repubs the race. It looks like someone was reading the ballot and used the pencil as a pointer. If they are going to use these ballotas someone should check them before the voter leaves to make sure it's evident what the voter meant. Older people and the uneducated would maybe be confused otherwise it's a very clear ballot. color in the circle of the candidate of your choice.

[brooksidebeast]

So much for a secret ballot if someone has to check it before I submit it.

[roshni]

It should be an option for people whose votes are being counted incorrectly. I'm sure the people in Florida who meant to vote for Gore and ended up voting for Pat Buchanan in the election stolen by Bush would agree.

[JustAProgressive]

It's only secret in the sense that your identity is not attached to your specific ballot. Transparency requires that the ballot itself be public. The fact that you cast any particular ballot is a totally separate issue.

Think about it.

[Carolab]

Do they know who you are, or something?

[edgeways]

Sigh. I was an election Judge in MN.

The ballots are fine, in fact optical scanners have an error rate of about .7% which is lower than all other electronic voting methods, and I'd wager better than a standard massive hand count would be. The only time there is an issue is when the vote is so friggen close as it was in MN. The recount is going to be fair, right now the lawyers are doing what they have been paid to do, contest anything that is even remotely out of norm, those ballots will go to a bi-partisan commission at the end to individually determine each ballots intent, and intent is the overriding rule in MN. I actually have faith in this recount, no matter how it turns out.

By law election judges can not handle or judge individual marked ballots without it being in extraordinary circumstances, and even then it has to be a pair of Judges, representing two different parties. Now, it is hard enough recruiting election judges as it is, are YOU going to volunteer to go help during election day for 16 hours? Because if you aren't you have pretty minimal room to carp about procedures that would require resources unavailable.

[Myshkin57]

They should let people scan their own sheets on a vote checking scanner. That way, everyone knows how/if their vote will be counted without anyone else knowing how they voted.

[inluvwkeitholbermann]

this is a cliffhanger......i'll hope for the best

[Cynicon]

Al Franken is a not-so-fat idiot.

I think the Repubs should let the dems steal the election. Should be enough rope to hang themselves with.

[Tommygun2146]

The recount is required by law and there is no evidence of election fraud. I realize how free and fair democratic elections may seem foreign to some of you pubs, but unless you have verifiable evidence of wrongdoing, you come off as little more than sore losers grasping at straws.

[Happylib]

My goodness gracious. You republicans put out ridiculous candidates with never ending scandal and then cry like babies when you can't pull it off. Al Franken is an intellectual, you know the opposite of your Gods: Palin and Joe the plumber and that frightens you. Here is my suggestion: curl up with a fuzzy Noam Chomsky tome and a cup of hot cocoa and start getting on the reality train. You will be so much happier when you practice critical thinking, reading, and turning off FAUX news. You don't HAVE to be a dittohead anymore. You are welcome here.....GO GET EM AL...you are an incorruptable, hilarious, creative, kind man and you will fit in well in the new Senate.

[spartanmom]

I don't think Noam Chomsky would be comfort reading for a repub.
He is a true Leftist

[rzan1]

No, he isn't an idiot. He graduated cum laude from Harvard, and I think he is a very funny guy. Maybe some real humor is needed in the senate.

[MontereyJack]

You can always tell a Harvard man, but you cannot tell him much.

[roshni]

That is really funny. Thanks for the laugh.

[Zofomofo]

Let them steal it? Do you you have that little faith in the system that typically favors your team?

[Poyda]

Hannity is going to lose a nu t. I can't wait until the story comes out about how the Republicans tried to ste-al the Senate race by challenging perfectly good votes, and then running off to court in a (failed) bid to stop the recount that would expose their dec-eit. Eat that Hannity.

[sonoffestus]

That will put him in the same company as Hitler. Birds of a feather, I guess.

[roshni]

I thought Hannity lost them a long time ago - hence his insecurity and irrational rage.

[ByersL]

IF there is a Gd, then Franken will win and Hannity's head will burst. I'll take one or the other as proof in case Gd is tired these days.

[Poyda]

Hannity is going to lose a nut. I can't wait until the story comes out about how the Republicans tried to steal the Senate race by challenging perfectly good votes, and then running off to court in a (failed) bid to stop the recount that would expose their deceit. Eat that Hannity.

[aubrey8]

I thought this would take several weeks but they are saying 26.5 percent of the ballots had already been recounted. anyone know when they are suppose to be finished?

[northstar11]

the counting in some counties doesnt start till dec3

[edgeways]

additionally, after the count there are still all the contested ballots to be individually voted on. The only way it goes faster is if the winner of the recount wins by a wider margin than outstanding contested ballots, or at least a significant margin of those ballots.