Franken Camp: We're Doing Even Better Than Reported

Aides to Al Franken told reporters on Thursday afternoon that their chances of winning a recount election against Norm Coleman looked far more positive than even Wednesday evening's optimistic reports suggest.

Speaking to reporters in person and on phone, Marc Elias, the Franken campaign's chief counsel, said that the early recount results (which decreased the margin separating the Democratic challenger and Coleman by 43 votes) actually underestimated the ground gained.

"We do in fact feel very good about how the first day of the recount went... We believe that through last night, 26.5 percent of the ballots were hand counted. And that represents slightly three percent more of the Coleman vote or Republican vote than was true during the election. And nevertheless we picked up a significant chunk of votes," said Elias. "In other words, the ballots counted yesterday were more Republican than the total ballot pool will end up being. It was a slightly redder pile versus what it will finally be. And not withstanding that slightly redder view, we picked up votes yesterday. In fact, we believe that number is higher than the 43 votes reflected on the Secretary of State's official margin."

Elias declined to reveal just how many recount votes the campaign has internally calculated, saying it would lead to endless speculation and inspection. He added that the campaign did feel "very good about how the first day of the recount went." And while it's possible that Coleman will expand the margin as the recount proceeds, the Franken team was heartened that their position had improved even in traditionally Republican areas.

On Wednesday, it was reported by the Minnesota Secretary of State's office that Franken had narrowed Coleman's lead from 215 votes to 172, with over 80% of ballots left to be sorted out. A study by Dartmouth Professor Michael C. Herron showed that the majority of the undervote -- the difference between the total number of individuals who voted and the total number of individuals who voted in the Senate race -- came from predominantly Democratic counties. While many of the estimated 34,000 undervotes were likely deliberate (people intentionally voted in the presidential contest but not the Senate one), there seemed likely to be enough non-deliberate undervotes to push Franken to victory.

"Yesterday's reports should put to rest the false notion that the vote shift we saw during the canvas [the final official reporting of ballots] were, in the Coleman campaign's word, 'implausible and statistically dubious,'" said Franken spokesperson Andy Barr. "We are feeling confident. And in Al's words, cautiously optimistic, about the directions things are headed."

Comments

[rabiddog6708]

First, Coleman is defeated then Chambliss bites the dust next month....then the Repubs truly become a minority party. If the country wasn't in such a mess, it woud be time to celebate. Al Franken is he man!

[roshni]

Now Chambliss really needs to bite the dust. we need to make this 3 for 3.

[bubbuh]

Now, Al looks like Stan Laurel but wider.

[swesbayley]

FYI barbarossa89, the two largest cities in MN are considered the most literate urban centers in the united states, so why don't you do a bit more research before you spew your nonsense.

[GeoLee]

Those of us in the public education field know MN has one of the top two or three high school graduation rates in the entire country and has pioneered many programs adopted elsewhere. That is why it was so stunning to hear there were so many contested ballots in the first place. Siunded like an effort to steal an election to the rest of us and stealing seems to be perpetrated far more often by the GOP ..you know, the party that says it is the Christian, ethical one with the best values. Yeah, Right!

[Nikola Tesla]

Long winters = lots of reading.

[cfreedom]

Please, the Twin Cities are no where near as cosmopolitan as they claim. The subs are getting redder and redder and outstate is primarily hillbillies in flannel shirts. If the state were anywhere near the progressive place it claims there wouldn't need to be a recount - Franken would be miles ahead. But Minnesotans - including those from your supposedly literate hotbed - could not appreciate Franken's earlier career. Or his sense of humor, for that matter. There's a reason Dylan and the Coens and Franken moved out. It's hicksville here and we can only hope enough folks were smart enough not to be fooled by Coleman again.

[Carolab]

While the suburbs are getting redder, there were a lot more Obama signs than Kerry signs this year in Plymouth, etc. I think a lot of people are changing their tune. And it is STILL very very blue here in St. Paul and of course in Minneapolis. And don't forget the range. So I think we are still quite progressive overall when you consider the population centers. Dylan, the Coens and Al moved out to make money in entertainment--which is not centered here, certainly. But Al has come home to represent us--and ain't it grand?

[JadedAggie]

Well it is now 55 votes after 23% of the vote being counted. In addition Coleman has now challenged 68 more votes than Franken meaning that after they are done counting the clear votes it is very likely Franken will pick up even more votes from the contested ballots.

[lentinelia]

I am rooting for Franken...

But WTF is a "non-deliberate undervote"?

[longfeltwant]

It's where you tried to vote for a senator, but didn't do it well enough for the machine to understand.

[RobHughey]

OH that actually makes sense to me now... thanks for clarifying that. :)

[CR46]

Or the scanner just didn't read it for a variety of mechanical reasons such as a dirty sensor or tampering, thats why paper ballots are a good thing.

[jonbw]

Some one who voted for president but choose not to vote for anyone in the senate race or the other lower ballot races.

[leftcoastindy]

That kind of sounds deliberate Jon.

[franklin opt]

Is it like a pregnant chad?

[RealityBaseCamp]

All the pregnant chads are in Alaska this time around.

[bubbuh]

The only deliberate undervote is not marking the ballot for a particular office.

Any kind of technical error, e.g., marking the ballot mark too lighly for the machine to sense, using an "X" instead of filling in the circle, circling the candidates name instead of filling in the circle, etc is a non-deliberate undervote.

In the old days, before automated voting when all votes were inspected and counted by humans, non-deliberate undervotes would have been counted as long as the choice of the voter was clear.

[EndangeredJackalope]

Its when the voter filled something in, and didn't intentionally leave it blank - either way, the scanner records a non-vote (an undervote.)

I think this would be like, if a voter filled in Franken, then the pen slid an marked an area in the Coleman box as well - the scanner can't understand it and doesn't record it, but the voter meant to vote.

[Denmark2]

Here is a bizzare thought; (not that I wish it) what if they both get the same number of votes? Does the Governor get to break the tie, or does a run off occur? Another one: loss by one vote! Especially if Norman is the one. It could be a wild legal battle with one discarded vote being challenged as a "hanging chad" etc. etc.

[CR46]

Actually in Minnesota the legal way to decide a tied election (this has happened twice in the town of Gilbert Mn for mayoral elections) is a coin flip. Incumbent gets to call heads or tails.

[CR46]

P.S. no hanging chads on Minnesota ballots :)

[bubbuh]

I think in Minnesota they hand each candidate a supersoaker full of antifrozen amunition and send them out onto one of the lakes in their long underwear. Whoever comes back is the Senator.

[roshni]

A good old fashioned duel may work too..

[Carolab]

Whereas in Georgia they have to catch a greased pig.

[MagisterLudi]

I hope Franken wins. But I can't help to think that a stronger candidate would've wiped with floor with Coleman.

[macbabe]

maybe so, but AL will be GREAT...
he is in it "for the people" not so much for political stature.

[RobHughey]

Well... I'd say there is always an element of narcissism involved in National Politics. And there's nothing wrong with that, but there's always a sense of it in the highest offices.
The man was a TV star as well, and why else does anyone go into entertainment except for the fame, money and that awesome "look at me!" kind of thing. Politics are perhaps more noble, so I'd say it's wonderful that he's made the change... but you can't totally say he's only doing this for the people. I'd say he's doing this because he looked at himself and at the others in the field and thought "I can do this better and do it properly."

[MagisterLudi]

Al is great no matter what. The question is will he win this election.

[SanityNowPlease]

for a comedian, he ran a pretty strong race against an incumbent Republican

[elr50]

Heck the Republicans got the presidency TWICE by running a comedian!

[Invox]

GOTTA get Bachmann out of there next time.

[Carolab]

As soon as we can redistrict her it'll be a slam dunk. But I guess that's not until 2012. Trust me, there are some strong anti-Bachmann groups here.

[bubbuh]

They thought Al was a strong candidate. And, he is. It's just that he was a first timer. Nobody in his campaign recognized his "baggage" and he didn't know how to handle questions about his "baggage" with grace and aplomb. A Plum would have counted for a lot in Minnesota.

[jimmycan]

Come on Folks nobody has ever accused Minnisota of leading the nation in being brainy. After all they have to manouver around all those 10,000 lakes to re-count the votes. This is the state that elected Jesse Ventura and just re-elected a real pain in the ass Michelle Bachmann. I don't hold much hope in them being able to count anything accurately the first or second time. This could be a bigger fiasco than Florida. Hopefully they can get err done by the end of the year.

[CR46]

Minnesota actually has a very educated population and has a very good public school system, and don't blame the whole state for Bachmans district. But yeah Ventura was a mistake but sometimes when there are 3 parties running the 3rd party takes it. But overall Minnesota has been very blue and very educated. This is the offical count and it will end here. If Norm Coleman does win I presume he will follow in Ted Stevens footsteps, trial, conviction, and hopefully prison. Norm may be better off hoping he loses.

[DenialTwist]

Thank you. Clearly, jimmycan has no idea what the state of MN is like. Kinda ironic he is accusing Minnesotans of being ignorant while having no idea what he's talking about. heh.

[DenialTwist]

lame generalizations are lame.

[DaCoach]

Here's something interesting. Franken gained 43 votes counting 20% of the ballots. If he continues at that pace he'll gain 4X43=172 more votes from the remaining count. That's exactly the number of votes he's behind. TIE VOTE. Get your two headed coins out and prepare for the infamous coin flip. Someone br sure to tell Franken to call heads.

[BushBites]

The article says he gained those 43 votes in Republic areas, so he should do even better in Democratic areas, no?

[NJmikeV]

Call in New York Jets DB Kerry Rhodes. He has called 10 consecutive coin flips for his team, including the one for last weeks overtime win.

[argent1]

a grain of salt here or a grain of sugar there - how exciting.

[buddydave]

Let's not kid ourselves -- Lizard People's gonna win this thing.

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/news_cut/lizardpeopleb.jpg

[barbarossa89]

We'll see what we will see. Coleman was ahead initially, and recounts rarely flip the results. They may tighten them, but we will probably not see a 60 vote majority until 2010. With two years of democrat control, and more Republicans than Democrats having to defend senate seats, people will be able to see the true results of full Democrat control. They saw the results of full Republican control just four years ago. They will be able to compare and contrast, and I think they will be able to make reasonable decisions based on that. But I don't see Franken winning here, unless something unexpected turns up, nor do I see Georgia voting for a progressive senator anytime soon. Even Zell Miller got the boot there. And Chambliss got 49.9% of the vote the first time.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, just realistic. I have learned that getting your hopes up too high is the fastest way to get them dashed. Be more realistic, and patient, and things will go your way more often than not.

[rjmiller]

Oh, Franken is going to win. I am about 90% confident. However, I agree that Chambliss is going to keep his seat. Without Obama on the ballot there just won't be the big voter turnout necessary to beat a Republican in the South.

[macbabe]

if we continue the GOTV and keep hitting the streets and phone line, we could.

[oldleftcoastdude]

well said.........

[Budokan]

Franken never bought into the fact the GOP stole votes in 2004. Maybe his eyes have been opened.

[RaraAvis17]

What's taking so long?! This should not be a problem in 2008 for gawd sakes. Apparently they have a very cra ppy voting system.

Go Al! Since they chose Bachmann over Tinkleberg - chosing you is just a kick in the pants! Love it!

[Grunty1]

Hand counting votes takes time, especially with a gaggle of lawyers swarming over the people doing the work.

[DenialTwist]

What's taking so long?!
----------------------------------

uh, you try counting millions of ballots BY HAND.

[Czoe]

Actually, Minnesota is known for having a very clean election process.

Because the election is so close, Minnesota law requires a manual recount of the vote.

See, I did my homework.

[Carolab]

Correction, lots of us here are not sure the elections were very "clean" under the former Republican SOS Mary Kiffmeyer. I think that's how we "got" Coleman in the first place.

[LeeCalif]

Franken winning would be icing on the Waxman cake !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!