Franken Camp: We're Doing Even Better Than Reported

Aides to Al Franken told reporters on Thursday afternoon that their chances of winning a recount election against Norm Coleman looked far more positive than even Wednesday evening's optimistic reports suggest.

Speaking to reporters in person and on phone, Marc Elias, the Franken campaign's chief counsel, said that the early recount results (which decreased the margin separating the Democratic challenger and Coleman by 43 votes) actually underestimated the ground gained.

"We do in fact feel very good about how the first day of the recount went... We believe that through last night, 26.5 percent of the ballots were hand counted. And that represents slightly three percent more of the Coleman vote or Republican vote than was true during the election. And nevertheless we picked up a significant chunk of votes," said Elias. "In other words, the ballots counted yesterday were more Republican than the total ballot pool will end up being. It was a slightly redder pile versus what it will finally be. And not withstanding that slightly redder view, we picked up votes yesterday. In fact, we believe that number is higher than the 43 votes reflected on the Secretary of State's official margin."

Elias declined to reveal just how many recount votes the campaign has internally calculated, saying it would lead to endless speculation and inspection. He added that the campaign did feel "very good about how the first day of the recount went." And while it's possible that Coleman will expand the margin as the recount proceeds, the Franken team was heartened that their position had improved even in traditionally Republican areas.

On Wednesday, it was reported by the Minnesota Secretary of State's office that Franken had narrowed Coleman's lead from 215 votes to 172, with over 80% of ballots left to be sorted out. A study by Dartmouth Professor Michael C. Herron showed that the majority of the undervote -- the difference between the total number of individuals who voted and the total number of individuals who voted in the Senate race -- came from predominantly Democratic counties. While many of the estimated 34,000 undervotes were likely deliberate (people intentionally voted in the presidential contest but not the Senate one), there seemed likely to be enough non-deliberate undervotes to push Franken to victory.

"Yesterday's reports should put to rest the false notion that the vote shift we saw during the canvas [the final official reporting of ballots] were, in the Coleman campaign's word, 'implausible and statistically dubious,'" said Franken spokesperson Andy Barr. "We are feeling confident. And in Al's words, cautiously optimistic, about the directions things are headed."

Comments

[Progress08]

Norm Coleman is a creepy, skeevy jerkbag.

[yorkie]

WE can only hope that AL wins at this point ! It shows how every vote counts ! Time for dems liberals to keep getting out the vote in greater numbers in future elections, I am disappointed in the voters in MN's 6TH AND 3RD cong dist in sending 2 gopers to Congress over better candidates ! The gerrymandered districts need to be redrawn ! PAULSON is conservative opportunist and Bachmann is a disgrace and shows how out of touch and losing the future that the rethugs are !!!!!!!!

[WowJones]

I know I don't like Norm Coleman, but Franken's flip-flops on the Iraq War are frightening.

[taddles]

He states quite succinctly that he was for the war as it was sold by the Bush administration and now that he and the rest of us know that Bushco lied, he regrets his decision.

Every Dem in congress has flip-flopped according to your definition, should we get rid of them all?

[rustyaustin]

I think Al said he was for the war but against the troops...

[Megaflow]

Jones, please respond because I really want to know: just what do you consider a "flip flop"? Traditionally, that's been a politician changing his mind for no reason other than political expediency. On the war, Franken has been very open and up-front on an almost minute-by-minute basis ever since it started. Like many of us, he was tricked by Bush and Co. into thinking there were good reasons to go in, and, like many of us, regrets that he actually believed the President.

How, precisely, is that a "flip-flop"?

[jahzilla]

Harken back to the days of yesteryear . . . When BushCo's lies, false-nationalistic fervor and "You're either with us or . . . (anti-American)" threats had every one (80%) pro-war. Because history, tradition, respect . . . what ever . . . has always had congress fall in behind our "Commander in Chief", especially when most intellectually lazy Americans didn't have a clue as to the fraud that has always been G.W.Bush, then a little nuanced thinking suggests that Franken, Clinton and others . . . would have had a different position than they do now.
We saw an exercise in "trust", that under most any other Presidential leadership, would have reflected an accurate depiction of the entire Iraq scenario.

The next question (that should temper any further questioning of congressional position on the war, relative to where they now stand) is . . . were you one of the 80% who supported invading the wrong country, which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent people?
I wasn't !

[DenialTwist]

not really. Being sold on a false war and LIES...yea, you are going to believe in it when you want to. Millions of Americans did and realized they were wrong, Al is no different. He has said he was wrong and regrets supporting the war initially. Get your facts straight!

[gopherinjoburg]

Just recount baby, recount!

[truth2008]

Go Al go! Get rid of the crook Coleman!

[katlade]

I can't wait until Norm has to take back his victory speech.

[BassMent]

Oh man, this would be a sweet win! Keep prayin', everyone! Or whatever you do in these kinds of circumstances!!

[steamboat]

This is why I love these political blogs. On this one they have pictures of ballots which is clear were intended to be Franken votes. I was over by Newsmax and they show a bunch of ballots that you can see were intended to be Coleman votes. Hilarious.

[afgail]

But, what does Nate Silver say? You know the young pollster who bested all the established pollsters in the primaries AND the general election.

[oldleftcoastdude]

as of 3 days ago, he was hedging his bets, because he said it was too close to call.

[strandwolf]

Didn't Norm beseech Al to concede the election on the following day? Sure thing, Norm. After all the votes are correctly tallied, and IF your total is THEN and only then greater. What a putz.

[philosopherkingtomas]

yEAH sENATOR AL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jukesgrrl]

Fox's so-called legal "expert" Napolitano (big guy with a gray pompadour) was on TV yesterday claiming that Coleman is a lock because he's "never seen a recount that didn't validate the original count." Will they bring him on to eat crow when Al wins?

I didn't think so.

[taddles]

Um like the recount in Alaska the other day?

If he hasn't seen one then he hasn't been in politics for very long.

[DC Democrat]

Alaska wasn't a recount, it was simply a continuation of the original ballot count.

[rejoyce5]

Has he paid his back taxes yet?

[theMightyT]

he actually paid too much tax to the wrong counties.

get your story straight.

[Speet]

Actually he paid too much taxes to some states and underpaid others. As a tax attorney, it was likely an innocent mistake.

[taddles]

It wasn't back taxes, it was taxes he wasn't aware he owed because he was under the assumption that his tax lawyer had correctly filed in the several states he pays taxes in. And yes he has paid those taxes.

[DenialTwist]

fail fail fail.

[Aabby]

Go Al !!!!

[mom2sons]

I hope he wins! Norm's a rethug crook!

[lovethesinner]

Go Al. Go Al. Go oy oy oy.