Intelligence Report: Say Farewell To American Supremacy

WASHINGTON — Global warming could be a boon to Russia, a European country could be overrun by organized crime and the U.S. and its dollar could further decline in importance during the next two decades, says a U.S. intelligence report with predictions for the world in 2025.

The report, Global Trends 2025, is published every four years by the National Intelligence Council to give U.S. leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities.

The report says the warming earth will extend Russia and Canada's growing season and ease their access to northern oil fields, strengthening their economies. But Russia's potential emergence as a world power may be clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector, persistent crime and government corruption, the report says.

Analysts also warn that the same kind of organized crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country. The report is silent on which one.

It also says countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves unstable and ungoverned, as state regimes collapse or wither away under security problems and water and food shortages brought about by climate change and a population increase of 1.4 billion.

The potential for conflict will be greater in 2025 than it is now, as the world's population competes for declining and shifting food, water and energy resources.

Despite a more precarious world situation, the report also says al-Qaida's terrorist franchise could decay "sooner than people think." It cites its growing unpopularity in the Muslim world, where it kills most of its victims.

"The prospect that al-Qaida will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," the report states.

The report forecasts a geopolitical rise in non-Arab Muslim states outside of the Middle East, including Turkey and Indonesia, and says Iran could also be a central player in a new world order if it sheds its theocracy.

The report, a year in the making, also suggests the world may complete its move away from its dependence on oil, and that the U.S. dollar, while remaining important, will decline to "first among equals" among other national currencies.

U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global problems.

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On the Net:

Global Trends 2025: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

Comments

[Fuji]

GOOD.

[Citizen-Jane]

Thanks Repugnicans and all the repugnican voters of the past. So much for your strengths repugs you know the National Security thing.

[Republicrats]

ha, where have all of the sainted dems been? The dems almost gave the nomination to hillary, their hawkiest one? The dem vs. repub system is designed to take all of your eyes off the ball- the dysfunctional leadership of the country- and get it focus on each other, works too!

[Superstretch18]

It's amazing what you can do in just 8 years if you apply yourself. I am hopeful that BO will be able to somewhat turn the tide on this. Though he's got his work cut out for him. Bush did a damn fine job of running the country into the toilet!

[Republicrats]

ah the amazing armchair quarterback, such insight! How would have Gore reacted to 9/11? Would he have gone after Al-Qaida in Afghanistan and toppled the Taliban too? What would Kerry have done in '04 about Iraq, pulled out by now, what would be going on with our oil supply by now? They all get advice from the same Yale grads, hang out with the same policy wonks, the difference is only in degrees. Would the dems have told those bad bond traders to stop making so much money off of risky investments, cut down on bad loans, changed Greenspan's monetary policy, no flipping way!
WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!
Lets stop paying our taxes this year, all at once!

[bullypulpit]

"How would have Gore reacted to 9/11?"

It would have been just another day in his administration because the attack would not have taken place.

America went from being a helping hand to a hindering, villainous hegemony. No surprise that thugs thrived--we enabled them all over the world.

So maybe we can look out for number one now. Not much choice, is there?

[Superstretch18]

I think that Gore would have focused on Al-Qaida and not started a war with a country that had nothing to do with 9/11. That would have nullified the entire Iraq quagmire and saved us a trillion dollars. That would have kept our gas prices low, which would have prevented much of the record inflation that we saw at the beginning of this year and arguably had a major part to play in our financial situation now. That would have helped keep the image of our country as a world leader intact.

I can go on about gitmo, reduction of civil liberties, expansion of the "axis of evil", Al-Qaida recruitment, etc. if you like, but the point is moot. Honestly, my preferred candidate in 2000 was John McCain...

I do think that it's funny that the people arguing that Bush had no real power are the same one's screaming the loudest that Obama is going to spell the end of the US. Either the president has power or he doesn't. Pick one.

[Republicrats]

You guys are so lame! The reportage comes out every four years and is trying to make predictions for the year 2025 and all you can do is sit in the here and now and point fingers at he accelerated it or blah blah blah, yaddy yadda yadda. Do you really think anything would have been different under another quote admin? The president does very little beyond war making, and that only because congress has abdicated their responsibility to let the executive twist in the wind when things go south, and WE LET THEM! Contries ascend and they decline, and the world still goes round and round. Lets all move northward and let Canada take the lead for awhile as they have been in our wake-like the rest of the west-for the last century, getting pulled happily along while we have been footing the bill.

[Furby]

Please do. If the US threat goes away, we will have considerably more allies than security risks, cause that's the way we roll, we're just plain friendly.

[bail me out]

in 2025, there will be no world.

[orangepetal]

Yes there will be, and there will still be a mix of good and bad.

[Fuji]

Actually, isn't that the year 2525?

[muchtosay]

Look, all of you who wanted bush in office got what you wanted high unemployment, high job lost, wars, money lost way over spending, and now republicans say were you going to get the money to do anything we spend it all, Well you better come up with something to help this country out or every rich american will lose everything sence you have it all you will share it all. The rich saw fit to bleed this country for every penny we have to keep them in some kind of power, but it won't keep you there you should have taken care of home first. This lesson will be a hard one to learn when your broke as much as the poor people See your greed for money have done all of us in. You will pay for that sin. The world is in turmo and you think life is great all you did is paint a bulleye on your butt. When you help Bush robb this country.

[MilwaukeeDan]

"A European country could be overrun by organized crime", this one has me laughing my ass off. Most of Eastern Europe is controlled by organized crime, especially the Balkan countries. The Albanian mafia financed the independence of and runs Kosovo. Just wait till they run NATO out of there. Do these guys actually ge paid to make these predictions?

[Barbie40]

Bush & Cheney definitely acted like Mafia bosses.

[OilWarsDotCom]

"acted?"

[MilwaukeeDan]

They are the biggest ones, think of King George as Don Carleone with a nuclear arsenal and a 2 million man hit squad(the US military) and no one asks any questions, that's power.

[SaulBloodworth]

You're absolutely right. I can't believe the U.S. endorsed all these Balkan offshots. Bosnia is an Al-Qaeda-heaven and Kosovo is a country completely controlled by organized crime and ethnic Albanians who still have the Enver-Hods­cha-mindse­t.

Kosovo Albanians killed ethnic Serbians, including nuns and priests and burned Christian churches, still the U.S. is depicting Serbia as the bad-guys-country and endorsing criminals.

[Republicrats]

Aye, who was the president during that time??? Sound familiar, meet the new boss, same as the old boss

[dutch163]

I am not surprised, in fact I didn't need their report: I predicted the same and I am just a retired teacher.
I saw the parallel to what the Bush administration has done to us to what Felipe II did to Spain in the 1500's

as some here have said ;Bush accelerated the decline, the lead dog changes,etc

the only factor I didn't know was:who could be next lead dog, I thought China

there are forces out there beyond our control..l­ike who is manipulating the world's finances???

I am also gratified to see the forecast of Al qaeda's demise through the hatred of its means..the­y were given more importance than they meritted..­..

[Moshe]

The same people that are manipulationg the world' oil prices.

But this time they seemed to have gotten a bit too greedy and killed the golden goose.

[Kassandra]

And here I thought the USA was already being run by organized crime! Silly me!

[raydot]

You're referring to Congress as "organized?" That's the silly part!

[AmandaBC]

Nah, Congress is the trained chimps controlled by big business, the real OWNER of the USofA...

[CactusTom]

Indeed, America’s post WWII empire is coming to a close. For more than a half century we were the energy, manufacturing, technological and financial king of the hill. As those advantages have seriously eroded, so, too, must our military power that rested upon those advantages. And thus going forward, we will have no choice but to depend more and more on clever diplomacy and international cooperation for our country’s survival.

[Fuji]

Fine. Good. Great. Find another punching bag.

[wedgie]

Think of it in terms of sled dogs or migrating geese. The lead animal has to cut the snow or wind resistance. Everybody else gets to ride their wake.

I've got no problem with letting somebody else lead. Especially after our lead dog took us off a cliff.

**

[wedgie]

Bush DRAMATICALLY accelerated that outcome, by probably fifty years.

What a complete waste of every resource and asset we had.

**

[NoSillyName]

Great! Now maybe we can start taking care of OURSELVES instead of meddling around the world.

[ExpatinEurope2009]

America would be better off going to a EU type situation with 48 countries instead of states. Each country making up its own system of govt.

[Dynamohum]

TOTALLY INSANE IDEA

[crablover]

Uh, there are 50 states.

[Barbie40]

Millions of people were killed in battle to keep the United States a UNION during the Civil War. That has already been settled!!!

Our founders originally wrote a confederation document and DESTROYED it and wrote the CONSTITUTION instead. Our founding Father's stated that a Confederation would never work.

Drop it you Confederates!!

[Barbie40]

The Civil War is over, you lost....We are the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Our founders originally wrote a confederation document and DESTROYED it and wrote the CONSTITUTION instead. Our founding Father's stated that a Confederation would never work.

Drop it you Confederates!!

[Fuji]

Can you stop moving to North Carolina and polluting it??

[SaulBloodworth]

Not really, however, the Eastern seaboard and the West Coast would be better of without flyover land.

[norednecks]

"U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global problems."

It's about freakin time!