Intelligence Report: Say Farewell To American Supremacy

WASHINGTON — Global warming could be a boon to Russia, a European country could be overrun by organized crime and the U.S. and its dollar could further decline in importance during the next two decades, says a U.S. intelligence report with predictions for the world in 2025.

The report, Global Trends 2025, is published every four years by the National Intelligence Council to give U.S. leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities.

The report says the warming earth will extend Russia and Canada's growing season and ease their access to northern oil fields, strengthening their economies. But Russia's potential emergence as a world power may be clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector, persistent crime and government corruption, the report says.

Analysts also warn that the same kind of organized crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country. The report is silent on which one.

It also says countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves unstable and ungoverned, as state regimes collapse or wither away under security problems and water and food shortages brought about by climate change and a population increase of 1.4 billion.

The potential for conflict will be greater in 2025 than it is now, as the world's population competes for declining and shifting food, water and energy resources.

Despite a more precarious world situation, the report also says al-Qaida's terrorist franchise could decay "sooner than people think." It cites its growing unpopularity in the Muslim world, where it kills most of its victims.

"The prospect that al-Qaida will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," the report states.

The report forecasts a geopolitical rise in non-Arab Muslim states outside of the Middle East, including Turkey and Indonesia, and says Iran could also be a central player in a new world order if it sheds its theocracy.

The report, a year in the making, also suggests the world may complete its move away from its dependence on oil, and that the U.S. dollar, while remaining important, will decline to "first among equals" among other national currencies.

U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global problems.

___

On the Net:

Global Trends 2025: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

Comments

[tomas0808]

Did I just hear the world give a big sigh of relief?

[speckitis]

Yeah. I agree with you. But the world also just f.arted in our general direction.

[dawn2dusk]

hi lar i ous!!

[munki]

Great nation was supreme with immigrants...
We need to work on our educational system...
This news did not come overnight!
Hello???? Let's get it done and fix our problems...

[Kiba]

The US has fallen way behind in education. We need to critically improve our standing in science, technology, engineering, and math.

Meanwhile, the right wing fundie dipsticks doubt evolution and want to teach Bronze Age mythology in science classrooms.

[SwingVoter]

Is this end on time prophecy?

[Kiba]

Catnarok is nigh!

[vegasobserver]

Global population, especially in the Third World, is spinning out of control, and our leaders haven`t even begun to address this issue. It`s at the core of virtually all of our problems, including resource scarcity, crime, corruption, the drug trade, global warming and the piracy off the coast of Somalia.

When people are desperate to eat, get commodities like food and clean water, and a place to live, they tend to do desperate things like start wars, grow opium and hijack supertankers. And when there are no breaks on population growth with Third World cities teeming with billions of poor, these problems will cascade until no one, not even the advanced Western countries, can fix them.

The business class never utters a peep about overpopulation, because more people to them means more CUSTOMERS. They`re only too happy to dump all the problems created by all these people -- which economists call "externalities" -- on the public, while the CEOs continue to fly around on their private luxury jets.

Controlling population must be our first priority, and this movement must crawl out of the shadows to plant itself firmly front-and-center on our list of global public policy priorities. If this is not done very soon, it will be too late for Planet Earth.

[Ramirez]

The industrialized world has been at zero or negative population growth for over a decade. As countries become more advanced their birthrates decline. Overpopulation is not the problem it was thought to be in the 70's.

Ironically the biggest problem facing Europe right now is underpopulation due to declining birth rates. Europe only keeps its economies running through massive importation of workers from 3rd world.

[yannb]

France's "native" population has been steadily increasing in the past decades. Check your numbers before making fallacious claims that only apply to *some* European nations.

[canuck4barack]

I couldn't agree with you more. Overpopulation is the seed which spawns all of the world's problems. Moderation and sustainability are the answers to most of life's problems. We hear these words when discussing everything from health problems to resource depletion, but we don't hear them often enough when it comes to overcrowding the planet.

[JonathanStuartLeibowitz]

ALL the world's problems? Let's say it's one of them. The thing is that if we in the 'advanced' world wouldn't live like there's no tomorrow, leading our wasteful lifestyle on the backs of these peoples, exploiting their poverty, living from their poverty, the planet could very well feed the 9 billion people that are the conventional global population estimate for 2050. Studies show that quite convincingly. This is all extremely sketchy but it's true nonetheless.

[kemt87]

It's not a matter of sky-rocketing global population - as you say, they're in the third world, dirt poor, and don't use many of the important resources we're talking about. It's the movement of some poorer countries into the industrialized world that's driving up raw material prices and thrusting us towards cut-throat great power resource competition. Whether or not there's 50 million or 100 million impoverished people in a region of subsaharan Africa, drinking increasingly dirty water and eating less and less food, is largely irrelevant to American power. Whether or not 50 million or 100 million Chinese move off the farm and into the middle class, on the other hand, is.

[OutsiderSA]

Take that tin foil hat of and stop blaming the Africans.

One east coasts countries problem with pir.ates and now all of Africa are pir.ates because they breed too much? Hello, if the USA did not r-ape Africa for resources, most would be subsistence farmers and their mortality rates would take care of population growth. Did you know more people die of Malaria in Africa each year than AIDS?

The chin.ese took radical steps of one child only but you have folk in the USA where families of 4-6 is not uncommon and that is white "educated" (small - e) folk. Many blacks here in SA, now have 2-3 kids max, things change eventually as they become EDUCATED.

Physician heal thyself before you vent your anger on Africa.

"When people are desperate to eat, get commodities like food and clean water, and a place to live, they tend to do desperate things like start w.ars"

That sounds sooo USA only your excuse is not hunger clean water.

How did the Africans survive on "dirty" water before the white man screwed it up? And I am white and proud to be African.

[leevntheus]

We have our own continent, resources, abilities. Most Americans are tired of their short valuable lives squandered on corporate world domination. We want to love our planet and our families, especially our children.

Its too tiring being top dog, being the target, defending against imaginary threats.

Fuel cell cars, light rail, natural gas, shale oil, nuclear power, solar , wind, wave, autonomous energy cell associations, doubled school and university budgets, student loans for all that achieve.

Reverse media conglomeration, nationalize health care, regulate speculation, harness the banks, control the Fed, bring troops home, send doctors and teachers throughout the world.

Peace in our time.

[dawn2dusk]

exactly

[tibetanprojection]

Wot?! And give up all my preposterous riches and privileges?!?!?!

not bloody likely.

[FogBelter]

The United States has outsourced so much of its Intel apparatus to private sector firms of dubious allegiance I'd say it's hard to know what the future holds for America anymore. We are blind.

[Retrofuturistic]

If we had impeached Bush and Cheney when this needed to be done, we wouldn't be in this situation.

[IBOAT]

Sorry,-- the country first people would not stand for it.

[Chillinout]

Okay, one more time.

It takes a super majority in the Senate for impeachment. Right now there are 49 Dems 2 Ind and 49 Repubs.

A super majority is 67 Senators. That would mean you would need all of the Dems, both of the Inds, and 16 Repubs. Please tell me which 16 of the Repub would vote for impeachment?

It is off the table because the numbers aren't there.

[Carolab]

Maybe not once Bush & Cheney are gone. David Swanson, co-founder of AfterDowningStreet.org, argued that impeachment is crucial to possible criminal trials against the president and Vice President Dick Cheney once they leave office.

When Cheney and Bush finally face trial in a criminal court, their first line of defense is likely to be, "We served the American people, whose representatives chose not to impeach us." If on the other hand they are impeached even after having left office, the likelihood of prosecution and of successful prosecution will increase dramatically.

[truthglow]

It's only off the table because the Democratic Congress is SPINELESS!!!

[TOOO]

It's off the table because Bush and Cheney managed to intimidate Pelosi (and probably Reid). Apparently, the only one who hasn't been intimidated is Kucinich.

[Chillinout]

To impeach the president, you need 67 votes in the Senate. Right now there are 49 Dems, 2 Inds, and 49 Repubs.

So which16 of the Repubs do you think would vote to impeach Bush?

[Ramirez]

What makes you think you would get 49 Dems?

[AmandaBC]

"To impeach the president, you need 67 votes in the Senate."

You'd need 67 votes to *convict*, not to *impeach.* The republicans didn't have 67 senators when Clinton was impeached...

[tydicea]

From the beginning of man's ascendancy to top dog on the planet, every dominant power had its day eventually to be surpassed by another. It's America's time....maybe not in my lifetime, but sometime.

[thankgodimanatheist8]

There has been a tendency for the dominant power to move West:
Middle East (Egypt, Assyria, Babylonia, Persia)
Eastern Europe (Greece and then Rome)
Islamic Empire (covered from Eastern Iran to Andalusia)
Western Europe (Spain, Holland, France)
Great Britain
United States (with power moving from the East Coast to the West)
So next we'll move further west to....
China.

[Kiba]

China and India are definitely ascending.

[whoknew---]

Who cares about being the top dawg?....

All I hope for is that we make it through the next couple years intact regarding this looming economic crisis. We still haven't reached the bottom of this mess yet and I'm sick and tired of more bad news from the stock market.

Damn.....

[BlackWidowPilot]

"U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global problems."

Actually... if We The People play our cards right and get the oil monkey off our backs... we could very easily come out even stronger than ever... AND get a handle on climate change while we're at it.

Leland R. Erickson

Citizen

[Carolab]

We really need to do something about the bankers, too, Leland.

[Kiba]

Preferably something involving a trebuchet.

[BlackWidowPilot]

Yup... 10-25 years in Ryker's Island with consecutive sentencing based upon the number of families driven into financial ruin for each of the banking CEOs would IMHO be a good start.

Oh, and no time off for good behavior....

Leland R. Erickson

Citizen

P.S. Trebuchet? Hmmmm.... well, they can throw a dead horse a considerable distance.... perhaps two CEOS at a time?

[quillsinister]

I agree. We have the potential to solve a vast array of problems with one stroke if we decided to focus on pioneering the post-fossil fuel economic infrastructure. We jerk the rug out from under OPEC, take the steam out of terrorists, fix global warming and right our negative trade balances by exporting green tech for the next century.

But we need to move fast, because the world is starting to leave us behind.

[brett66]

"U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global problems."

This sounds just fine by me!

[donaldw6]

Sounds like a plan.

[monicaangela]

It's about time.

[jimmyjones22]

Agreed, a strong demestic policies lieads de facto to a strong foriegn policy in time.

[RazzesMe]

What a pathetic world.

[Bocado]

Agreed, 100%.

[Carolab]

Democrats on Wednesday said this report ... "is a clarion call to action from the heart of our nation's security establishment," said Rep. Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts, chairman of the energy and climate change panel. California Rep. Anna Eshoo, a member of the House intelligence committee, borrowed from the administration's rhetoric, saying "we can't wait for threats to mature before deciding how to counter them."

But Republicans said that such continued focus on climate change ignores the daily problems Americans are confronting with escalating energy costs, and used the hearing to argue for more domestic drilling and nuclear power. Clamping down on greenhouse gases, for example, could lead to higher electricity prices.

Wisconsin Rep. F. James Sensenbrenner, the top Republican on the panel, lamented that Congress was talking about global warming "as opposed to the real threats of high energy prices and economic security."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0628/p99s01-duts.html

Natch, the wingnuts leap on cue "drill baby drill" and "fear".

[Bitsko]

After all these years of sabre rattling, it just might be a relief to let someone else be the most despised nation on Earth.

[stephanemot]

The Bush Legacy : goodbye to the American Identity and American Supremacy.

[HappyIdiot51]

Who cares? We are all people. Remember this is a global community. Americans are great, but we aren't that great.

[monicaangela]

Having lived in other countries, I realize most people of the world are great, it's the leaders of the countries that are not so hot, and that includes the present leaders in the GWB administration. Let's hope PE Obama will improve upon the situation. Maybe he will be an example for the leaders of the world.

[tibetanprojection]

I agree. My grandaddy loved America, but hey. Tibet is a pretty special place too!!