Franken Projected To Win Recount By 27 Votes

As we wrote yesterday evening, the ever-increasing number of challenged ballots in Minnesota is making it more and more difficult to determine the extent to which Al Franken is in fact gaining ground in the state's recount process. An analysis of precinct-by-precinct returns available on the Secretary of State's website, however, suggests that Franken's position is somewhat stronger than it appears, and that he may in fact be the favorite to prevail in the recount process.

Consider the following. In precincts where no challenges have been issued (these are the only precincts in which, in some sense, the results of the recount can be considered to be final and "official") Franken has gained a total of 34 votes, and Coleman a total of 6 votes, for a net gain by Franken of 28 votes. Moreover, in precincts where just 1 challenge has been issued, Franken has gained a net of 31 votes on Coleman, and in precincts where exactly 2 challenges have been issued, Franken has gained a net of 32 votes on Coleman.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[Karma7]

Thank God.

[lisakaz2]

I sure hope Nate is correct.

[dphilip]

It has been reported today that a Franken supporter that worked with his campaign and claiming to be a "non-partisan" volunteer had weazeled her way onto the recount board in MN.
I'm sure that this step needed to be taken to prevent the republicans from "stealing another one" ? hahah...you dems are consistent if nothing else..

[weatherwaxx]

"It has been reported?" By whom? Faux Noise?

[dphilip]

The Grand Forks Herald...anything else?

[woodrowwest]

Al Franken trying to still an election like Al Gore tried to go

http://www.grandforksherald.com/articles/index.cfm?id=94355

[woodrowwest]

disregard the word go in my above post

[Tabasco]

Try spelling and grammar lessons. Then try to read more than 1 newspaper.

[Myshkin57]

There's no way to make that projection. Nate Silver is a good statistician, but this is flim-flammery. Without a representative sample of the questioned ballots, there's no way to do this. Perhaps if he had data from several Minnesota U.S. senate recounts, there might be a way, but this doesn't make any sense.

[katlade]

As a supporter of Paul Wellstone, all I have to say to Coleman is - Karma is a bitch.

[brockc1225]

Wellstone cost the state of Minnesota millions of dollars. He was such a "caring" person that he didn't bother to carry workmens comp insurance on his employees. MIllions of dollars went to the families of the crash victims, paid by the rest of us who actually carry workmens comp insurance on our employees. Karma is a bitch.

[callanish]

If it wasn't for Nate Silver, I'd have bit my fingernails down to nothing but skin during the months leading up to the election. I'm not about to abandon him now.

[katlade]

If this guy gets even close to what he is predicting, President-elect Obama needs to immediately put him on the payroll. There has got to be a place for someone this smart.

[Myshkin57]

But, how could he not be close? It's already within 200 votes.

[BartLA]

And if Franken wins by 26 will Nate have a mathematical meltdown? "I didn't account for an unknown variable in my regression analysis! I'm a failure. A laughing stock among pollsters! How could I have been wrong by an entire vote! Now I'm doomed to teach high school calculus for the rest of my nerdy life."

[mzonic]

Nate is usually on the money. But can he call a 27-vote with confidence? Seems too small of a margin for victory.

[BartLA]

He's just trying to show off and get some press. It worked.

[rbenjamin]

He has a good sense of media style, but I give him a lot of credit for being open about his methods. Being right is the best possible publicity in his game, when you make a hard & fast prediction of "27" you are almost certainly gonna be wrong.

[rbenjamin]

Quick answer, no, he can't. The 27 vote win is just the most likely estimate from a quick and dirty multiple regression (my characterization). As Silverman sez - "The error bars on this regression analysis are fairly high, and so even if you buy my analysis, you should not regard Franken as more than a very slight favorite. " Nate doesn't say how high high is, but in the cold light of dawn Silverman won't be surprised if Coleman wins, see his blog for all the careful caveats:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/projection-franken-to-win-recount-by-27.html

He may wish he hadn't put the 27 vote figure in his headline, or that Huffpo ran with the title too. So, all of you hoping for a Franken win (and I'm with you), odds are basically about 50-50. Which is pretty good when you're in a recount situation. Let's try and be Obama like while waiting, no highs, no lows, no drama.

[vinny]

he's going all in... if he's lucky, he'll get some press...

[leeman79]

It's official then.

[violimo]

Please explain how the GOP wil steal this election by 'ginning'?

[whatchamean]

If Nate were to preduct this within a few votes, I would say that he will be forever secured as the "the man" with regard to the election prediction business.

[nogimmicks]

Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy

[seenitall]

smart money's on Nate...l