Nate Silver: Illinois Residents, Not Governor, Should Choose Obama's Replacement

FiveThirtyEight:

Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich will soon have the honor of selecting a replacement for Barack Obama, who has resigned his position in the Senate in order to accept his promotion to the Oval Office.

There is not much consensus about just whom Blagojevich will appoint; names as wide-ranging as Obama advisor Valerie Jarrett and Blagojevich himself have been subjects of (wild) speculation. But there are two fundamental directions that Blagojevich could go with his decision. ...

The best way to prevent these things would be to appoint a placeholder like Jones and then let the younger candidates battle it out on a level playing field in the primaries. If there's nothing else we learned from the Presidential race this year, it's that there's no better way to vet, challenge and season candidates than vigorously-contested primary.

Read the whole story: FiveThirtyEight

Comments

[politicojunkie]

Blagojevich is under investigation for corruption. He should be nowhere near the US Senate.

[politicojunkie]

Blagojevich is under suspicion for corruption. He should not be anywhere near the US Senate.

[DuPageDem]

Nate should stick to polls, or at least states he knows something about. He's completely lost on this one. Illinoisans shouldn't have to suffer a useless placeholder, even for a little while. Under that logic, let's put Alan Keyes in the Senate for Nate's state -- howdja like that?

[CriticalDune]

Much as I like Nate, he is way off on his list, especially re Giannoulis. He is a not only a newbie, he's a big potential liability re his family's banking relationships with Tony Rezko and other unsavory characters. Duckworth has won exactly zero elections. Next. Jones? Please. Spare me. Gutierrez? Downstate support? Nope. If Blago has any sense, it'll be either Jan Schakowsky or Lisa Madigan.

Obama (and Illinois voters) the best and brightest in his old seat not a retread or an unproven commodity. I also like Claypool as my darkhorse.

[lochnessmonster]

I say how about Tammy Duckworth?

[VOTER]

She is a great person and could become our next Senator or
perhaps be in a Cabinet position. I don't know which but I
believe we will be learning the answer soon.

[politicojunkie]

Duckworth for US Senate. Yes!

[Serious Lee]

Nate Silver is generally well informed but on this subject: He is soooo wrong!

As a person with a conscience, an American, an Illinoisan, and an African American, I would be outraged if Gov. Rod B appointed Emil Jones to the Senate. Jones is a slap in the face to the good people of Illinois. He was reelected from his district, immediately after the election, he announced his retirement and advocated for his son, having neither education nor experience, to replace him in the State Senate. (The son makes Sarah Palin look like a political scholar)

If this travesty occurs, I am starting a petition; possibly followed by a protest; or a revolution; or something (within the law)!

[rabiddog6708]

Appoint me in the position. I don't live in Illinois but am willing to relocate, and I promise I won't run for re-election. Two years in to fill my pockets with special interest cash and network my way into a cushy lobbyist job once the term expires. The American Way.

[bdl0715]

I think Nate Silver is great, but I believe the US Constitution allow for the Governor of a state to appoint someone to fill a vacancy in the US Senate. It also specifies that Congressman must be replaced in an election.

[leo21]

The last thing Emil Jones deserves is a shot at another pension. It would be a foolish move to appoint him and Blago is the fool who would actually do it.

[Serious Lee]

Nate Silver is generally well informed but on this subject: He is soooo wrong!

As a person with a conscience, an American, an Illinoisan, and an African American, I would be outraged if Gov. Rod B appointed Emil Jones to the Senate. Jones is a slap in the face to the good people of Illinois. He was reelected from his district, immediately after the election, he announced his retirement and advocated for his son, having neither education nor experience, to replace him in the State Senate. (The son makes Sarah Palin look like a political scholar)

If this travesty occurs, I am starting a petition; possibly followed by a protest; or a revolution; or something (within the law)!

[dzymzlzy]

Why is Nate Silver offering political advice and opinions?

[Myshkin57]

They aren't enough polls. But, really, he needs to get out of this type of commentary and stick to what he does very well. He could lose credibility if he doesn't.

[Myshkin57]

Sorry... THERE aren't enough polls.

[Pema]

He's cashing in on his 15 mins of fame. What I find silly is that it is even being given space on HuffPo.
If we catch him outside a turkey factory, he is doomed....lol

[Myshkin57]

Emil Jones? Are you kidding me? The guy who retired just in time to name his unqualified son who never went to college his successor? No thanks.

[demfriend]

I can see holding an election with the next election round in the state but to look at the state now they cannot afford an election special for the seat right now. Thplus I see is that Obama will have a whole lot of say right now in the replacement I have no doubt. Then let the person run next time. There are far worse things to do like Larry Craig still in ofice etc.

[lochnessmonster]

NO way should Blago be allowed to pick the successor. The way he has run this state into the ground...I'd be afraid of whomever he would endorse. Today they are closing state parks and monuments because of his spend spend spend attitude and waste of money on his frequent private jet trips to Springfield. He must be teching Palin how to bilk the residents of your state.

[Pema]

This is standard procedure, plus I think your anger would be better served at the state legislators.

[Bitsko]

And I thought New York state politics was complicated! Thanks for the info, and good luck with that!

[BartLA]

Dear Nate, elections cost time and money. That's why some states opt for the appointment until the next election comes 'round.

[StrangeOne]

You might want to consider actually reading the article before replying. Nate isn't suggesting that there be an election now instead of an appointment. He's suggesting that the govenor appoint someone who won't run for re-election in two years, when the seat will come up for re-election. The point being to give those running an even playing field. Or more specifically the Democrats who want the seat an even playing field, as Nate feels that this is more likely to result in the Democrats holding on to the seat.

[JDJase]

If you actually read the article you would realize how idiotic your comment is