Franken's Gap Narrowed Even Further, Source Says

Al Franken has narrowed the gap he faces with Sen. Norm Coleman even closer than the 73 votes the campaign reported yesterday, a source close to the Democratic challenger tells the Huffington Post.

With roughly ten percent of the recount remaining, the gap between the two contenders is now at the point where quite literally, every vote matters. The source did not offer a specific number for the new margin but hinted that it could be roughly a third less than Monday's reported figure.

The numbers can be confusing. For example, the Minneapolis Star Tribune has the margin at well more than 300. But that figure is inflated, the Franken campaign says, by frivolous or easily resolved ballot challenges.

On Tuesday, the Minnesota's Secretary of State office had Al Franken actually leading the recount by more than 4,000 votes. But that count is not official. Rather it is a snapshot in time, showing where the vote totals are as ballots are recounted (as if there were a new election). Thus, when the Minneapolis votes were reassessed, Franken's total jumped up. Aides to the Democratic challenger expect that number to narrow as more recounting takes place.

In the end -- if the Franken numbers are to be believed -- the election will come down the pool of challenged ballots that need to be legally resolved, whether or not rejected absentee ballots will be reconsidered, and how many missing ballots are potentially rediscovered. It could easily be that close.

Comments

[petejo]

al, we--not just minnestora, but the whole u.s.-- want u, baby. we need u. u kicked off air america when there were no progressive voices in the right wing air and showed a reasoned, smart, calm, refreshing approach to the big issues. ur humor is always a nice valve too for our times.

[RJII]

hang in there Al, you've fought a wonderful fight and shall soon win.

[kellygrrrl]

can't we just have them wrestle for it?

[Unreadable]

Oh, shoot, just posted some calculation, and a second later noticed I was off by 10 votes. Argh. Anyway, here's a recap.

If you add up the totals on the MN SoS recount page, Franken loses 88 votes in the recount, but he also has 183 less challenges. Assuming all challenges are frivolous, Franken gains 95 votes in the recount. Adding his newly found 37-vote gain, we get 132-vote gain for Franken. Coleman led by 215 in the original count, so he would still lead by 83 votes in the recount. That's before counting any rejected absentee ballots. So there we are.

[Unreadable]

Oh, come on, guys, stop being cheerleaders ALL the time. Report something substantive for a change.

If you add up the old and new vote totals on the MN SoS recount page that you link to, we get that Franken loses 88 votes in the recount as of now. Well, not really, since Coleman challenged 183 more ballots. Assuming roughly that all challenges are frivolous, that leaves Franken gaining -88+183=95 votes in the recount. Thus, Franken's new margin is -215+95=-110 votes, i.e. he still loses by 110 votes. His 37-vote lead in newly found unscanned ballots translates into 110-37=73 vote loss. In order for him to win by 27 votes, as Nate Silver projected, Franken would need 100 more votes. Maybe those would come from the rejected absentee ballots, maybe not, but that's where we are now.

[Unreadable]

Argh, I'm off by 10 votes. Franken's new margin is -120 votes (i.e. a 120-vote loss), or 83-vote loss after adding the 37 newly found votes. So he needs a 110 vote-gain in the rejected absentee ballots to match Nate Silver's projection.

[Politisizer]

Just get those 171 votes counted from Maplewood 6th district and let us know when Franken takes the lead. I want to time how long it takes for Coleman to do a 'U turn' on counting the rejected ballots he currently is against but I'm pretty sure he'll be for when he is trailing.

[cookiebaker]

Stop playing with my emotions. It's killin me.

[wideawakenow]

I live in Mn and this is a nail biter

[stanschurman]

While I would prefer to see Franken win, the whole exercise has become quite tiresome. Franken has been trailing since day 1, but the race keeps being reported almost as if he was winning. The final outcome might be in his favor, but at least give his opponent some credit for having been ahead all along and he might still be ahead when the final ballot is counted..

[JohnFromCensornati]

What difference does that make? The official total is the only one that matters. Who cares what anybody says until then?

[Danny]

We have learned, the hard way, stan, that the GOP candidates are very quick to "declare victory" so that the "challengers" are made to appear to be "whiners", even as the race isn't settled, as is the case in MN. If your side hadn't cried wolf so much we might believe you. Al Franken has a more than good chance of "winning", no matter what you say.

[rmetz74]

Credit? For being ahead in a crooked vote?

The reason the process is tiresome is that the Republicans are doing what they always do - putting up every road block they can to the actual counting of ALL the votes. The Dems have finally learned to fight back, which is why Coleman's lead has shrunk so much.

We abandoned this kind of fight once, with Bush, and it's pretty clear it was a bad, bad decision. The inconvenience of forcing the election system to become legal and transparent is worth the result.

[plzchuteme]

I think that if, after a recount, challenges and canvassing board decisions, any court decisions rendered, and the vote is a tie, the election is decided by a coin toss. It's the law in Minnesota. I can't see the senate having anything to say about it.

[rmetz74]

Now, as serious as this is, that would be hysterical.

[lizziekw]

Sweet. Hang in there, Al!

[motoGpifupleez]

Keep pluggin' Al. I've got my fingers AND toes crossed for you.

[GlenRast]

Give them baseball bats and put them in the ring. Winner takes all.

[milo h minderbinder]

At this point the recount spread is virtually meaningless. There are thousands of ballots contested, many of them frivolous.

The current spread only matters if the contested ballots are split 50/50. If they break one way, specifically if one side has more frivolous ones, THAT will determine the result. We probably won't know until all contested ballots are resolved. And if the result flips from who's leading before those ballots are counted, that doesn't mean anything either, it is just counting every ballot, not stealing the election.

[BartLA]

Nate Yoda Silver said Franken would win by 27 votes. Can we just declare it now and wrap this up?