Nate Silver: Chambliss Win Gives GOP 2010 Strategy

FiveThirtyEight:

I tend to think that we should not be too dismissive of Saxby Chambliss's win in Georgia tonight. Although the outcome was expected, and although runoffs and special elections sometimes behave in idiosyncratic ways, moving from a 3-point margin of victory on November 4 to a 15-point margin of victory a month later is a significant accomplishment. ...

But while proportionately lower black turnout tells part of the story, Chambliss also appeared to gain with white voters. In certain ways, this is an awkward time for a Democrat to be running for office. On the one hand, with the imminent end of George W. Bush's term in office, and the fact that Barack Obama has effectively been serving as shadow present -- Obama is generating between two and three times as much news coverage as Bush according to Google traffic metrics -- it has already become harder for Democrats to pin our country's problems on the Republicans. Yes, Bush did damage to the Republican brand that will last for years to come, but it's the Obama brand that's strong more so than the generic Democratic one. On the other hand, because Obama hasn't actually been in office, the Democrats do not yet have any accomplishments to point to. The Democratic message in 2010 will essentially be one of two things...

Read the whole story: FiveThirtyEight

Comments

[larry278]

B4 you take this blog seriously, look at NY OBSERVER comment of Saxby's win. See NYO for 12/3/08.

[sixx]

Ludacris certainly was.

[bmwracer]

Georgia blew it.

[Mdazes]

Funny how the Republicans are trying to spin this win as if some how this make up for the a@@ whooping they got Nov 4th.

[KatDawgATL]

Way to marginalize yourself GA.

[GAPeach99]

I've been muttering and cursing under my breath all day, wishing we could make Atlanta a state unto itself. Arrghh!

[Idiocracy]

What is everyone complaining about? This is GEORGIA. You expected a different result?

Just like Texas, there are some parts of this country that will never change or move forward progressively. GA is almost as red as TX and always will be. The larger cities in GA (Atlanta, etc) will always be over-shadowed by the majority who live in the rural parts.. (W H I T E C R A C K E R R E D N E C K S)

We just have to face that fact and make sure that these states NEVER again are involved in politics.

[Lindy222]

It took Saxby Chambliss' win to suggest to the GOP that the way forward was hyper-partisanship? This doesn't make sense to me. First, I assume the hyper-partisans already had that way staked out. And second, if you're a moderate, why would a GOP win a red red state convince you that hyper-partisanship was now viable?

[Mdazes]

Why are they making this win something it is not. The chance of a Dem getting this seat was slim. This win only proved what Nov 4th had already proven... The Republicans have boxed themself to the south. There were no new strategy used for this win. Beside, the Republicans would
not know 'NEW' if it came and looked them in the face.

[kylennblack]

Agreed. The fact that the race was close enough for a runoff speaks volumes - the GOP didn't win, overall they've lost ground.

[lovered]

Repubs have held the WH for the majority of the last 3 decades. Dems win an election they should have won anyway and now they think the whole country is changed forever. Keep dreaming.

[JJM21]

You are missing his point. He acknowledges it was a seat that Repubs should have won. What he is saying is that how did it jump from 3pts to 15pts? And is this foreshadowing what will happen in 2010 when Democrats dont have Obama on ticket?

Its very possible the '08 election was not the new "left-leaning" nation so many have wrote about, but a election for Obama with others riding his coat-tails. A Democrats fear should be how do we get the same voting bloc without Obama on the ticket in 2010?

[Mdazes]

First this is Georgia. Second, in 2006 Obama was not on the ballots and Republicans went down like dominoes. Third, It went from 3pt to 15pt because Dems stayed home. Due to the state of the Economy and most states now having their hands out, I dont think there is going to be enough resistant ( resistant is referring to Republicans in the Senate) to stop or slow down Obama during the early months of his Administration.

[Rep/Dem both suck]

If Democrats doing something big like universal healthcare, and actually put their names on it. In two years, we will see the same thing.

[jorge4u]

Whoever believes that Chambliss' win is a firewall is dreaming. Democrats still hold 58 seats and can always find two votes to break a filibuster. Plus, Chambliss' win was expected given how red Georgia is.

[Mdazes]

Firewall is just Republicans spin.

[Steamboater]

Thank you Obama for not giving back to the democratic party wha they gave you and not going to Georgia and actively speaking out and supporting Martin. I guess this is what Obama means by bipartisanship. He got his and the hell with everyone else.

[chronic]

Oh shut up.

[canucklivinginUSA]

YAWN

[lovered]

Hopefully Obama abandons the left. As a conservative, his national security team is giving me hope he may do so. I'll never vote for you sir, but I will respect you a lot more!!!!!

[lisakaz2]

What you hope he is a Booo$hie continuing the road off the cliff? Sure, that makes sense. NOT.

[naturethings]

Thank you Obama for not selling out your responsibilities as an incoming president to win some small insignificant election just because a democrat needs a handout. Obama sees a bigger picture. Something you should try to do.

[jacqmac]

First of all, in case you weren't looking, President-elect Obama was quite busy assembling a cabinet and getting on with BUSINESS. Second, Obama is NOT one to stomp all his opponents into the mud. A loss is a loss. Third, Obama sent many of his campaign workers to Georgia to assist with this runoff. Fourth, and probably most important, the Republican 'base' took a couple of pages out of the General Election's book--it was WHITE VOTERS who voted early this time in droves. It was WHITE VOTERS who took a 'vacation from voting'. And Chambliss toned down his nastiness--for whatever reason, Chambliss didn't seem like 'such a bad guy after all.' Also, since you seem to have been absent from reality for the last 21 months, Obama was running a campaign for nearly TWO YEARS. And--If he HAD gone down to Georgia to campaign AGAIN-and Martin had STILL lost---what kind of a tune would you be singing then? A runoff is ALWAYS risky--ALWAYS!

[vippy]

GOP prides itself not to get anything done for the people!!!!! I hope Georgia will suffer the consequences.

[canucklivinginUSA]

Gee thanks, I didn't vote for that mofo

[randyjet]

Martin should have gone negative on Chambliss and reminded all the "patriotic" idiots that Chambliss was a draft dodging COWARD who RAN from military service. They might not have voted for Martin, but they sure would have had a big incentive to stay home. I hope that all Dems will remind their neighbors who supported Chambliss, that he is just that, a COWARD and that they dishonored a REAL Vietnam vet when they voted for Chambliss. So much for honoring the Vietnam vets! It is Chambliss who SPIT on them, and continues to do so.

[flyguy14222]

If Sax is "the way forward" for the GOP, then as a Dem I look forward to 2010!

[Excitedforfuture]

The only reason Martin did so well in the first election was because people showed up to vote for Obama! It's Georgia! It's not New York or California or even Colorado -- it's Georgia!

[Grannysue]

Anyone here what the fruitcake said after winning? He said "I will be the firewall between Obama and what he wants to get done". That's exactly why people can't stand the GOP, all they want to do is create more disasters and obstruct anything constructive for Middle and poor Americans. I hope this guy gets a bad jock rash and has to step down!

[Rep/Dem both suck]

I wish the Democrats had been obstructionst during the last 4 years. If you think something is bad you fight against it. That is one reason I respect Republicans. If they don't think something is right, even though they are most likely wrong, they don't do it. you have to respect the guys for fighting for his beliefs, even if they are downright wrong.