The Annual Energy Outlook projecting United States energy trends through 2030 foresees flat demand for oil, a shrinking need for imports and enormous expansion of the percentage of light vehicles with hybrid fuel-electric propulsion. But its analysts foresee plug-in hybrids like the forthcoming Chevrolet Volt, seen by some as a way to bolster the electrical grid, remaining a sliver of the market. Of course, it's important to keep in mind the poor track record of energy forecasts. So maybe this forecast actually means plug-ins are going to rule?
My colleagues at the Green Inc. blog explore some more energy forecasts today. [INSERT, 12:45 p.m.: Joe Romm of Climateprogress.org called such reports "anti-information" in an email. Specifically, he said: "EIA forecasts are by design no-policy forecasts -- they assume no new action by govt. They also predict, 'In 2030, the average real price of crude oil is $130 per barrel in 2007 dollars.' I would qualify them as anti-information, since they are a description of what we know won't happen."]
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