Warren Buffett Predictions: Timeless And Time-Tested

CNBC:

As a new year approaches, it is customary for journalists to make predictions about the future. This time around, CNBC.com has a collection of prognostications from CNBC bloggers on a special page: Predictions '09.

Last year around this time, Warren Buffett Watch offered its Eight Predictions for '08 .. and Beyond.

In keeping with Buffett's long-term way of looking at things, the eight predictions were intentionally on the 'timeless' side of the predicting spectrum.

Here they are again, with a little bit of editing. This could be the start of a new holiday tradition!

Read the whole story: CNBC

Comments

[doneflyin]

I lost respect for Warren Buffett when he supported and campaigned for the bogus bank bail-out.

Buffett went out and bought a butt load of Goldman Sachs one of the first to receive a big ole government welfare check. Can you say conflict of interest?

We all know how the bail out worked. Failed bank executives got their year end checks and the continuation of their corporate perks. There has been no increase yet in credit liquidity and no restructuring of mortgages.
The Big Boys got theirs because they could.

Buffet's stock is good only for the super wealthy who in their lifetimes never need to cash in. The big plus is having huge amounts of cash tied up in a fairly safe but mediocre investment that is not taxable.
Buffet makes gobs of money for----Buffet. Now if you bought it 40 years ago and stayed with it through the growth years, well that is a different matter.
The stock has been a poor performer these last few years. Perhaps that is why he resorted to buying a company that is being funded by the taxpayers after he campaigned for that very action.

[Furby]

The only people who would tell us not to freak out at the current economy are those who stand to gain something from us not freaking out. Translation: don't get out of the market until the financial institutions have had time to deleverage themselves a little. After that, they don't give a damn what you do. They sold you that credit crunch story so you'd panic just long enough for them to appropriate your tax dollars. There was no credit crunch, you've just been financial morons for so long, it finally caught up with you. You don't have any money, you haven't had any money for quite some time now, but they had to time your demise perfectly so that they wouldn't sink themselves with you.

Now, here are the reasons why you should be freaking out: a) you have no money b) you have no jobs c) there's nothing anyone can do about it (no, not even Obama) d) that infrastructure "new deal" will just get its hands on more tax payers money, but if you think you can float the entire US economy on tax dollars that don't even exist anymore, you're dreaming. Get everything you currently have in the markets outta there as soon as possible. Keep it in cash or physical gold, not paper gold. Kneel down and pray just in case it might somehow make you feel better.

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

Buffett can afford to take more risks than us shlubs.

[noneIn2008]

Maybe pitching his stocks so that he can unload now and buy back later?

[kimleehan]

Theres only one way to predict the future, and that is by looking at the past.
What goes around comes around.

[MakeAWish]

Dear Mr Buffett,

Is it safe to take what I managed to save from the thieves out of the shoe box and re-invest it now or should I wait? Please look into your crystal ball and tell me where I should invest my hard earned money

[aweissnet]

Quit your job, or wait for unemployment, and then take up day trading, if you're smart, intuitive, and learn quickly.

(This is partially sarcasm, but not).

Real estate is a bad idea right now, and any long-term investments. Good, healthy companies with strong fundamentals have lost a LOT of value over the last 1-1/2 years. We ain't done yet.

How low can they go?

[macbabe]

right, start deflating hard working people's 401K and gamble your greed day by day and hope for the best... God Bless Everyone!!

If this is how it's going to continue being played without stricter Regs, take all your $$$ out and start collection "things" of value and resell, it's the better way to go.

[curiousasheck]

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway suffered a 77% drop in earnings during Q3 2008 and several of his recent deals appear to be running into large mark-to-market losses.

There is no indication as to the total depth and breadth of the over all crisis. The intricacies and unknowns are too numerous for Buffet or anyone else to know or understand.

What seems to spook people now is the possibility that everybody in charge of everything is a fraud or a crook including Buffett. Legitimacy has left the system.

[aweissnet]

And he is. They all have an interest in keeping us in the market. They've been telling everyone for a year not to touch their 401K, not to even look at the value of their 401K, as it was only a temporary fluctuation down, and it would rebound. They were told it was "long term," not short term. This downward trend has been going on since August of last year (if memory serves me right).

I swear, I believe this was known all along. Now the poor average Americans are the biggest losers, relatively speaking, to the mil and bil ionaires. They can afford a little hit. But they took less of one, at the expense of us. Their stock is losing value. Not stock they cash in--use to live on. Funny money. Monopoly money, to us.

What investors need to do is file a class action suit against all the media giants whose moronic financial advisors & reporters all "advised us" (as if they are equipped to do so) to hold onto all our stocks--all the while dropping in value and disintegrating your retirement fund to pieces.

[judesedit]

When Warren Buffett says we'll be fine. We've been there before and our economic system's so great, we'll get over it again. I think he means himself and the other 1% to 10% of the people. You know, the ones who made the problems in the first place. The rest of us go without food, heat, medical care, jobs, shelter in many cases, and have to get rid of our pets because we can no longer afford them. We can't even take a ride to get an ice cream cone because we can't afford gasoline - even though it's only $1.60 a gallon, and have 0 money for frivolities. Buffett lives in his own world. I don't know how he originally started out. Whether he had a silver spoon in his mouth from the beginning or he actually worked and invested to gain his billions on his own, but he's living in a different world than most Americans. In my opinion, there is no excuse for greed. All of these billionaires could invest some of their fortunes to keep America from deteriorating, My God. It's even tax deductible. But no. The majority won't even help to ensure that little children have food to eat and medical care. Even education isn't important enough to them to part with their big bucks. The charities are bankrupt, because, guess who funds them? Not the wealthy. The dwindling middle class. I have no respect whatsoever for any of these elitists. Their lessons are forthcoming.

[aweissnet]

That's cuz he doesn't care about those children, or the american people--it appears we are dispensible, or so they think.

These are short-sighted (I don't care how wise he looks) and greedy people who can never get enough.

A robust market serves them all well. But maybe it only needed to stay robust long enoguh to get them rich. Now we're throw-aways.

Maybe in their view, it's just time for some die-off. You know, a little ethnic cleansing.

[vjoseph]

You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Research about Warren Buffet and you will find out that he is not your typically wealthy guy. Oh what the hell do I even bother with you

[munki]

He has seen many different economic cycle and have traveled...
Fundamental structure of US financial system is good...
Only if we follow it... not cutting loose...but "enforce"

[BillMelater]

"If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."

While the country may have survived and come out on top, the people that suffered and died didn't do so well. The rich, like Buffet, will always do well compared to the rest.

[LeonBNJ]

What is critical about how Buffett invests is that he looks at the long term. He recognizes the reality that there will be economic cycles. He also buys into companies after they have undergone a major crises and have stablized. For example, he owns GEICO, a major consumer insurer but he also owns the largest USA based reinsurers and related companies His companies bought into them after changes in the way they did business and what they insured or reinsured and properly pricing long-term risks.

[vjoseph]

Agreed, he is definitely a role model for every wannabe investors

[BannedInBoston]

He seems less, um buffeted by the vicissitudes of fortune than most....

[SoCalAmerican]

Huh? Please elaborate.

[BillMelater]

Well, he obviously still has money to invest. While most others are broke. I agree this is the time to snap up bargains. But you need some money.

[4earth]

While it's nice to know that Warren was right in his predictions of 2008, we all now know what happened. It would be MORE helpful to hear what he thinks will be coming in 2009. Indeed THAT'S what we're all worried about. So what is the purpose of this article?

[pirea]

All his predictions are OK if the bottom is here and now will start the recovery. We should wait to see if this is so. These rich guys will never think that a system which is favoring them will ever fail. This is wishful thinking and that is why I personally don't listen to them.

[aweissnet]

Google Peter Schiff. HIS predictions were right on, and he weathered a lot of scorn for voicing them.

Buffet babbles.

[wagthedog1001]

I'm a teacher. I'm lower middle-class. This recession doesn't bother me all that much because I don't have all that much to begin with.

Warren Buffett seems very smart about this. If I had money, I'd do what he says. Since I don't, I'll just vote Democrat.

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

Heh.
Bumper Snicker: "I'm too poor to vote Republican."

[neocon6716]

Last time I checked Buffet's Berkshire BRK/A is down about 35% for the year. Why the hell should we listen to what he has to say. He is wrong like everyone else.

WE are about to witness the end of supply side capitalism as preached by all these people that have been proven wrong, except for a few.

PS, Thanks Bush, Greenspan, and Limbaugh.

[jcdf]

I'll take that the 65% thats left over any day. Look at the long term total returns. He buys or invests in companies because they are well run and produce a good product. He invests for the long haul, he does not time the market. Business schools give classes on Buffet. Buffet made his fortune the good old fashion way "he earned it" not like a lot of these scam artist ceo's or hedge fund managers that make millions even if the company loses money. He coined the phrase " weapons of financial destruction" regarding derivatives and would not invest in them. He has been the only stabilizing force in the market since September, when everybody else is crying gloom and doom, he's buying big time. Hind sight is 20/20, just wish I could go back in time 20 - 30 years to buy a couple of shares of BH.

In a year or two people will be talking about how much money they lost in the crash of 2008, we will be reading how much Buffet made.

[aweissnet]

It's not his living money.

And this is not like previous recession. We'd like to think it would rebound so quickly, but it won't.

He didn't "earn," anything by the way. I fail to see him as hard-working by any stretch of the imagination. He's sharp at what he does. But do you really know what he does?

And buying stocks with good fundamentals IS NOT the way to go right now. Those stocks have dropped in value, exponentially, over the last year+. You sit at work, trusting all is well, while the real money makers are at it daily, and selling for profit, while the market has been in a downward trend.

Notice, people have lost retirement income, with the crashing of their 401K. This has been a downward trend for the past 1-1/2 years. But they didn't tell you that, did they?

[tryharder2think]

well that seems like a short sighted POV. compare Berkshire BRK/A to anyone else - what do you get? In a down time everyone will have losses, it's pretty normal.

as much as I dislike Bush, Greenspan and Limbaugh - they aren't the people that created this financial crisis, it began with Reagan and every president after has supported in one way or another, and some more than others, the policies that brought this about.

[aweissnet]

Precisely. It was a trial, that failed. He's hoping we don't notice.

[vjoseph]

He's been way more right than wrong, by the way. All of his predictions and investments have been right on the money. So, he has incurred some loss, everyone has. That doesn't lessen his accuracy

[DougNTexas]

Be nice to trade places with Mr. Buffett for a while. But i come from a long line of poor people. I do think Mr. Buffett is a great man. God has blessed him with great wisdom and wealth.

[pirea]

If you think like this, you deserve to be poor. Be happy.

[aweissnet]

Doug, and others who think like that, are too sad for me to contemplate.

[vjoseph]

Yep, he is definitely a good role model