As If Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End Of US

Wall Street Journal:

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Read the whole story: Wall Street Journal

Comments

[Libarchist]

i enjoyed this experiment of America -- to bad it had to fall.

The foundation of our--liberal democracy--was based upon some basic principles, which was that the people be polite and friendly with one another, including those that one disagrees with (liberty) -- and to want the simple things in life like freedom and happiness, not material things.

Perhaps, in our falling we can then arise form the dead, and create once again a country that seeks to be an ideal liberal democracy.

[Amalek]

Our problem was not democracy. It was capitalism. Capitalism corrupted democracy and greed destroyed our economy.

Marx said this would happen. Capitalism would be destroyed by its own forces.

[Chopin]

Prof. Panarin's prognosis of US regional polarization and disintegration is serious and far from unreasonable.. When empires disintegrate, there're more and stronger forces tearing apart than unifying forces. The immediate and direct triggering cause would likely be the fall and devaluation of the US$. How, when, how fast and how big the fall are real debatable questions.

The national debt exceeds $10Trillion. Add $3T for the Iraq+Afghan misadventures. Add on top the expected firs wave (in additional 10's Millions) of babyboomer retirements beginning 2010 (1945+65=2010). Say that adds $1-2T. Add another $1T for the depression rescue package. The federal government would be looking at $15T total national debt in next 5-10 years. At interest rates range say 3-5%, the annual debt interest payments would be in the range $450Billion-$750Billion. The annual budget is $1T. Interest papyments consume over half the budget. Is this technically past the point of no return -- incurring new debt to pay interests on current debt, and technicallly in national bankruptcy?

If Calif. in dire need of federal budgetary assistance in next few years is denied by WashDC, unable or unwilling to help, there'll be enormous pressure to splinter off into regional republic of western states, with Arnold S. as prezdent. It would be free of debts incurred by WashDC, after dollar devaluation. Can you visualize that? I can!

[MyLowell]

can't the IMF bail us out? we've bailed out other countries and forgave their debt...

[Chopin]

It's "catch-22". The biggest contributor to IMF is ... US. We'll have to come up with some other new institution.

[trudem2]

Given the poor to absent leadership coming from policy makers in Washington, the unbridled greed of the upper class, the missing in action 4th estate, the outright contempt of the Constitution and the people expressed by the executive branch, the gullibility and temerity of the population, the sinking dollar and collapsing economy, the vanishing military, the undereducated population.........this professor may be on to something -- FOR REAL!

[Chopin]

I'd doubt that serious analysts at CI and NS Agencies are laughing or smirking at Panarin's prognosis. If they know, they're not telling. Your list of woes is pretty comprehensive. They're no state secrets anymore.

The cunumdrum is when an empire dissolves involuntarily, how would it escape the fate of internal violence? Prez Eisenhow had accurately predicted and warned the nation about the unchecked growth of power and influence of the military-industrial complex in 1961. In almost 50 years, nobody and no institutions has had any success in averting the nation from its onerous fate.

Many here pick o strawman to try to debunk Panarin's analysis. It's a very troubling thought -- not how it would happen exactly, but that it very probably and logically would.

[ramper]

KGB=Kook-Goofball-Birdbrain.

[Discomustachio]

One massive terrorist attack against America and all of this could be set into motion very quickly. Think about the hatred for Obama on the right? In their delusion they could argue that Bush kept us safe, Obama didn't, therefore revolution is in order for "our own protection". With an unemployment rate above 20% (as it could get there by 2010) meaning lots of young "Christian" men sitting around doing nothing and going hungry, the prospect of civil war is not too far fetched at all.

This would effect the entire world drastically so of course they would depoly troops to try and control us. China needs a healthy American market for its own survival so the idea that they would just sit there while their biggest customer and debtor falls into chaos is nuts-they would intervene. Same with Europe. They need our economy to survive as well. Russia and Alaska I am not so sure about-they would have to just straight up conquer it but if Alaska was left to its own devices that just might be possible if Alaska was not willing to go nuclear.

The end result seems far fetched to me but the US looking something like what this guy is saying by 2011 is not too off from what I see in our future.

[Amalek]

Civil wars start because of grievance or greed. We got plenty of both right now.

[senorlou]

Nothing lasts forever, kids. Don't know about how accurate that breakup map is, but we certainly could collapse as a nation. Nations do have civil wars too. Have you talked to any rabid Republicans lately? There are millions of them out there still. Yes folks, it's not time to let out a sigh of relief yet. Here's a frightening but great article that compares a collapse in the US to the one Russia had a few years back. Enjoy.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259

[Chopin]

... just started reading, this is very comprehensive and thought-provoking discussion article. Thanks senorlou for listing it.

[UncleDave]

While anything is possible, there are a number of really hilarious gaffs in the professer's map....First the collection of states that would join together is entirely a fantasy. Southern states -such as VA,KY,TN joining Northestern States? Really? Nah. Deep South states under the influence of Mexico? Over thier dead body. And besides,we got a 'Mexican problem' because even Mexicans don't wanna live in Mexico. And states of the highplains joining Rust Belt states? Suuuure. And why would Canada want the headache? And the west coast taken over by China? The fleet in San Diego has more ships than the entire Chinese Navy. Secondly, IF a Civil war were to occur,physical and geographical boundrys such as mountain chains and important rivers and ports would define 'state lines' not arbitrary lines. As for Alaska-Russia can have it.

[Amalek]

You miss the point.

The foreign "takeover" will not be by force. We will invite them in. You forget we are bankrupt. When you can no longer put food on the table you will be more than happy to get some Chinese take out.

As to borders, study up a bit on American history. Where was the physical border in Civil War I. Why do you think there needs to be physical borders like mountains in Civil War II? The old battle lines actually are pretty much still in the right place.

[Chopin]

In the context of American history, the concept of "civil war" in the American consciousness today may be too inextricably tied in with the Civil War over a century ago. For a more dispassionate and objective discussion, perhaps a new term "regional armed conflicts" might be a more neutral and useful concept to be discussing. The term lends itself to asking questions like "how", "why", "what makes it happen", etc,

[hildutus]

At first, I thought he would talk about political polarizati0n bringing down the Republic. That would be, I suppose, a disgruntIed Russi@an's dream and at least arguable by extreme pessim!sts. But his idea of a regional breakup is totally absurd. His division of the country ignores cultural, political, and religi0us attitudes, and as such would better reflect a division imposed by the outside rather than evolv!ing from the inside.

[TMAN]

It's not something to just casually toss off. In the 30's we came close and what kept us unified was a good part of the population was experiencing the same thing across the nation. Not so today. And the World w ar tended to unify us all (except the ultra conservatives...who else!). Given the supposed so ul searching going on in Republican circles, that translates to finding the new wedge issues and stirring up the hatreds they'll be flying high by 2010. Now add in Ka trina, still not addressed some 10 years later and how about the prior paragon of infrastructure engineering, the TVA. Builder of great enterprises once in the past, just letting it all go, billions of tons of sludge and ash and mercury soaked water into the environment and citizens drinking water...oops! And the EPA saying oh, get over it, the waters fine!

No I wouldn't write this guy off just yet, Gro ver Nor qui st, Newtie and the "contract...players" and their fellow travelers are still alive and as long as they and their ilk remain a force in American Geopolitical thinking we are threatened to our very core. Who do you think owns more than a third of all assets in California? Who now owns our media and why can't you get the real news in America any longer?

[Rightone11]

Katrina? Oh, pleeasseee....there was a huge hurricane this summer. Remember Ike? It hit Houston, Tx. And almost wiped Galveston off the face of the map. The difference is that Texans took care of their business. Lousiana is a welfare state. It has been run by dems for decades. Bobby Jindal will turn Lousisiana around. Hopefully, he can get the state off on the welfare rolls and on to the tax rolls~

[TMAN]

The fundamentals of Katrina have never been addressed by the current administration. They are not solvable at a state level. Galveston itself was and is a failure of long term governance. And as far as texans taking care of their business, any vision past a quick buck and unfettered development doesn't survive. Because of those attitudes Galveston was just waiting for the inevitable, Ike was no Katrina either. We'll see how Galveston fares over the next 20-30 years.

[Bwine]

You don't know what you're talking about. There is still a 30 mile stretch of the Texas coast that has yet to be cleaned up. They say that there are still rotting corpses laying in the debris.

[NavyMom44]

As a Houstonian let me just say "What a load of crap!!!!!!!" LA was run by Rethugs until the light was shined on the state about all their theft. As for Katrina and Ike we've paid for that here in Houston for Katrina since FEMA has yet to reimburse the city for the expenses we incurred helping the survivors.

Now in Galveston, they did have some sea walls put up especially after Carla claimed over 6,000 lives but it was not Galveston unprotected it was the "resort/vacation" sections that were built directly on the Gulf with no protection. They are STILL waiting on FEMA to give the funds for the cleanup or to purchase the property from the owners.

So unless you lived through both, shut up

[bdaved]

People only see the things they think they want to see.

[Gismonda]

This is the dumbest sh*t I have ever read. The idea of Kentucky, the Carolinas, etc, joining with New England and coming under the sway of Europe is laughable.

And lol, Texas is already under the influence of Mexico, and has been since forever.

[Rightone11]

No it is not. Mexico would love that, though~

[karma namdak]

Yes, indeed. I would like my own country. Can I have Montana? Who wants Montana anyway?

[gayinmt]

Hey. Watch it. Montana is a beautiful state. Granted, alot of conservatives, but it's getting alot more liberal. In some areas anyway. Hint: stick to western Montana. Eastern is a little scary and highly conservative.

[MelodyCA]

Interesting.

I always envisioned a more Handmaid's Tale like America and we came pretty close to that under Bush/Cheney.

[MyLowell]

omg...me too. i can deal with canada or the EU.

[HHarvey]

Ha ha ha..... seriously, no really.

[jimmyjones22]

lol, He truely does not understand americans.

I mean, kentucy, west virginia, and tennessee joining the atlantic states in the european union? And canadians overtaking most of the plains, and mexicans taking texas?

I'm sorry, but even if the US did collapse into civil war (who is fighting who?!) I seriously doubt anyone would encrouch on our territory - for one thing, just administering government to a large area like the midwest would be impossible for a mexican government who can barely control its own people.

And chinese somehow invading all of the western states? The canadian scenerio is more believable.

Obviously russians didn't learn lessons from iraq. You can't just topple one government and slide another one in its place. It doesn't work like that. Or maybe they should have learned from WWII and the korean war - even now, south koreans would't allow the north to join them because the infrastucture and costs of letting them catch up. Do you think after a civil war that mexico, canada, or the european union will be able to cover the costs of maintaining those areas?

[Kels78]

As a Californian I refuse to be under Chinese rule. Let's band together now and give ourselves to Holland.

[MyLowell]

word.