Tom Ricks: Obama's War In Iraq May Last Longer Than Bush's

News flash for the president-elect: All our troops are combat troops. It isn't like some American soldiers stroll around Iraq unarmed. Nor do the insurgents inquire about the troops' MOS (military occupational specialties) before detonating an IED. Indeed, I feel safer in Iraq accompanying an infantry unit on foot patrol than I do while riding in a convoy of transport soldiers, who are much more likely to get popped by a roadside bomb. So his promise to get "combat troops" out of Iraq in the next 16 months is a phrase that means much less than it appears to. At any rate, I bet Obama is wrong: I think we are going to have tens of thousands of troops in Iraq -- mentoring, advising and engaged in combat -- for many years to come.

The recent Status of Forces Agreement also means less than it seems. For example, U.S. forces are supposed to get out of major bases in the cities later this year. But there really aren't major big bases in the cities now-the last time I was in Iraq I was told there is really only one -- and U.S. military advisors will remain in urban outposts along with Iraqi forces. I suspect the SOFA really is most meaningful for the political help it will give Prime Minister Maliki in getting re-elected at the end of 2009 by taking the American presence off the table as a wedge issue for Iraqis.

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Comments

[Nzuzo]

You can tell the write of this article is an Obama hater. I guess Huffpost let him have his way so the bloggers can eat him alive.

[hapiday]

This article lost all creditability with the inflammatory title. Fact folks this type of smear campaign is going to go on for the next 4 years.

Solution: We are going to fight this wrongful reporting and call it out every chance we get.

[Yurdelite]

This is BUSH AND CHENEY'S Iraq War and do not forget it. DO NOT try to blame Obama for it. I knew as soon as Obama became POTUS they were going to try to pin this war on him. NOT.

Everything happening now is the result of Republicans and spineless Democrats NOT OBAMA.

[Asean4Obama]

and sorry for getting of the topic, Obama had nothing to do with the war in Iraq but it was the republicans and democrats that voted for the war and so far until now he has not broke his promises.

[Asean4Obama]

Iran has never attacked once a country. They preach hatred against Israel and the US because they have been manipulating the region for too long such as the puppet regim under the Shah. Saddam Hussain had strong support from the US and its allies in the Middle East, that why Iraq could afford to attack Iran after the fall of the Shah so the Iranian's and the Iraq's are brothers because they both are majority Shia. Trust me in 10 years time the Iraqi government will be totally different from what it is now.

The Iraqi parliament said already US troops must leave. Saudi Arabia and other countries from the Middle East will fill the vacum and they certainly don't need oil from Iraq. Bush tried to assemble a mideast force (coallition of the willing) when he invaded Iraq but the Arab government showed him a middle finger and even Egypt didnt wanted to take the risks even if Mubarak could have pocketed another 50 million.

[arvay]

The Iraq adventure is and will continue be a strategic defeat for US Mideast policy as it's been conducted for decades. (It's been thoroughly misguided, so the defeat is good for us, actually)

What we've done is install a pro-Iranian government. They can wait as long as it takes for us to finally leave. But the result we've created isn't subject to change. So every single life lost there, every dollar spent, is wasted, a fool's errand.

We need to leave quickly, enabled by an arrangement with Iran to keep order.

All of this is part of the inevitable collapse of the US' pro-Israel, neocolonial Mideast policy. Nothing can prevent this now.

[arvay]

We need to absorb something here.

The Iraq adventure is and will continue be a strategic defeat for US Mideast policy as it's been for decades. (It's been thoroughly misguided, so the defeat is good for us, actually) What we've done is install a pro-Iranian government. They can wait as long as it takes for us to finally leave. But the result we've created isn't subject to change. So every single life lost there, every dollar spent, is wasted, a fool's errand.

We need to leave quickly, enabled by an arrangement with Iran to keep order.

Iranian dominance in the region will be helpful in some regards. For one thing, their troops can do the "peacekeeping" in iraq. Someone has to prevent a Turkish invasion of Kurdistan, maybe that's the proper role for any US forces in the area.

[Mogamboguru]

A lecture from the Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz, in his groundbraking book "On War" ("Vom Kriege") of 1832 -

Quote:

"You cannot "win" an occupation. As long as there is only one single person left in an occupied territory, who regards himself in opposition to the conquering army, the resistance to the occupation will prevail."

Unquote.

Ant there are still 12 MILLION people living in Afghanistan, who regard themselves in opposition to the (in their eyes) conquering US-Army. Name it, like it is, folks: Afghanistan is a lost cause.

The Afghans will NEVER, EVER accept the western role-model of democracy for their country. NEVER. Therefore, Afghanistan will forever remain a bottomless pit forthe USA. Every further Dollar spent, every s.h.o.t f.i.r.e.d, every life lost in Afghanistan will be lost in vain - like they have been lost in vain until now, already

I say, get the H.e.l.l out of there and forget, that a country named Afghanistan even exists.

Let them over there sort it out like they want and let everybody mind their own businesses.

[Angelzfantasy4]

We can't because they supply 90% of the world's opium, which makes modern day medicine for the western world. Without having control of that trade, those big pharmecutecal companies wouldnt be able to fool us into thinking these all of these poxy medications are actually doing some good!

[jian1312]

"Obama's war"??? Wow, since when did THAT happen - we all missed the memo!!!

I know it's easier said than done to withdraw from Iraq - it's a nightmare and quagmire, and may take years to fully withdraw from. All that does NOT make Obama a willing participant in the Iraq war. My guess is he sincerely believes it's the wrong war to be in, and he'll try to withdraw as soon as possible. There's no political gain to be made by staying anyways, and we've all seen that he ain't stupid!

I'd give it 18-24 months for 80% troop withdraw - combat or not all included. We know what "military advisers" meant in the Vietnam War and we don't want that either!

[BarackstarObama]

I'm disappointed in myself that I even read part of this nonsense.

[Paralogos]

I stopped after the second sentence.

[Fireslayer]

This is of course rank Republican spinhackery. I don't know about you folks, but I am sick of righists projecting their wishful thinking into Obama. "Center-Righ?t" - what a load of crap

The Iraqis will have us out of the cities before June and down to toke forces within a year after that.

Without Bush, we would already be out. If Gates and the Iraq Study Group had had their way we would have been out last year. But Bush who cannot admit his painfully obvious mistakes and the Oil companies who wanted to tie up the grease for the next century- they are all going to be S.O.L. soon.

[harriscrl3]

WOW a war Obama opposed is now his war and it will last longer than Bush and here I was thinking the Iraq war was going on for 6 years and I believe Obama is on office for OOPS my bad he is NOT in office yet.

When are you some of you going to learn that yo uare NOT smarter than Obama.

Carol

[mybelovedcountry]

obama has no war in iraq

[motoGpifupleez]

"Obamas War"
Music to every RightWing 20%er's ears.
You better believe every Cable Propaganda Outlet and every AM Radio Talk Show NitWit will be bleating "OBAMA'S WAR" at the top of their lungs the second the man removes his hand from that Lincoln Bible upon completing the oath of office.
I don't believe anyone could accuse Mr. Ricks of having a "W" apologist agenda, but I for one would have preferred a different headline. Iraq should forever be known an a Cheney/"W" folly.

[MESGAIN26]

OBAMAS WAR ????? YOUR ARTICAL RIGHT OFF THE BAT IS WRONG THIS IS BUSH WAR

[joshuahmcdonald]

If we are not 99% out of Iraq in 16 months then I suspect that the recently publicized conclusions of the former KGB agent who claims that the US will fall into civil war in June 2010 will be proved correct. We simply do not have the money to rebuild our own country and theirs simultaneously. You've got to know when to hold 'em and you've got to know when to fold 'em. It is time to fold.