US Envoy: A Hasty Iraq Withdrawal Could Bolster Al Qaeda

BAGHDAD — A hasty departure of U.S. troops from Iraq would carry severe risks, including bolstering al-Qaida and threatening Iraqi progress toward a functioning society, the outgoing U.S. ambassador said Thursday.

Ambassador Ryan Crocker spoke to reporters a day after he and the top U.S. commander in Iraq briefed President Barack Obama on the situation here.

Obama, who campaigned on a promise to end the war, asked the Pentagon to do whatever additional planning was necessary to "execute a responsible military drawdown from Iraq," the White House said Wednesday.

Crocker, who is retiring after a 30-year diplomatic career, declined to say what he and Gen. Ray Odierno told the president during the video hookup. But he noted that the president was committed to a responsible pullout of the more than 140,000-strong U.S. force.

"A precipitous withdrawal runs some very severe risks," Crocker said, including a possible revival of al-Qaida and encouraging "neighbors with less than benign intentions" to influence events in Iraq.

He said al-Qaida had been "much weakened" due to setbacks on the battlefield and a loss of support within the Sunni Arab community.

"But as long as they can cling to some handhold here, they are going to keep trying to literally fight their way back," Crocker said.

"And perhaps most important it would have a chilling effect on Iraqis," he said of a quick U.S. departure. "I think the spirit of compromise, of accommodation, of focus on institutional development _ all of that would run the risk of getting set aside."

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Iraqi officials have said they hope the new administration will stick by the timeline set down in the U.S.-Iraq security agreement that took effect this month. The deal provides for U.S. combat troops to leave the cities by the end of June, with all U.S. troops gone from the country by 2012.

"We are prepared for the worst possibilities," Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi told reporters Thursday. "We cannot leave our country whether these forces withdraw or not. We have plans for the worst possibilities and we mean it."

The chairman of the parliamentary defense committee, Abbas al-Bayati, said Wednesday that Iraq has drawn up contingency plans in case Obama orders a speeded-up withdrawal.

Obama called during the campaign for a pullout of all U.S. combat troops from within 16 months of taking office.

Although Crocker spoke of the risks of a "precipitous withdrawal," he said that "it's clear that's not the direction in which this is trending."

A Sunni insurgent group, the Mujahedeen Army, said Obama's plans don't seem much different from those of former President George W. Bush and urged him to remove all U.S. troops, according to the Washington-based SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors terrorism messages.

In a statement posted on Islamic extremist Web sites, the group said if Obama wants to resolve problems left by Bush, "take your soldiers, all your soldiers, and (those) who came with them as agents, and fully withdraw them."

Crocker said security and political progress in Iraq "has been significant" but "we can't underestimate the challenges and the time it will take to work through those."

U.S. officials are closely watching a series of elections this year as an indicator whether Iraq has turned the corner and is on the way to lasting stability.

Voters in most of the country will choose ruling provincial councils Jan. 31, with parliamentary balloting expected by the end of the year.

Provincial balloting will not be held in the three Kurdish self-ruled provinces until the regional legislature approves an election law. Voting was postponed indefinitely in the province around Kirkuk because the area's ethnic groups could not agree on a power-sharing formula.

"The conduct and outcome of those elections will be very important for the country, in particular that they be and be perceived as free and fair _ in at least a general sense," Crocker said. "They aren't going to be perfect elections. We all know that. But it is important that they be credible elections."

Comments

[BarackstarObama]

Please stick to your plan, Mr. President.

[mediamarv]

Notice how these clowns never define "hasty" in any of their mewlings..­.

Pursuing a failed policy will only get more troops killed. The military is smart enough to organize the appropriate extraction program without these gasbags (Fox clowns included) running off at the mouth with phony fear mongering. Stil trying to figure out what their agenda is..

[motoGpifupleez]

Everything we do bolsters Al-Qaeda. Everything we do weakens Al-Qaeda. We've eliminated their #2 guy a dozen times now and yet they are still there. They've reconstituted a dozen times now and yet America is still here. Over four billion people go about their daily lives not giving a flying fu.. what Al-Qaeda thinks, says or does. Why are we the nation that trembles whenever one of their guys so much as clears his throat. If you're gonna get got, you're gonna get got. Quit telling me how many times Cheney"W" foiled a plot (but it's classified so we can't tell you the particulars but trust us, it happened).
Back when I was a youngster, we learned that Mesopotamia was the "Cradle of Civilization".
America has been around for 233 years.
Maybe, just maybe, they can figure it out for themselves now.

[BBackSoon]

Yea because going into Iraq really put Al Qaeda back on it’s heals in Afghanistan!

While I think if we start loading trucks tomorrow it might be a problem, I believe that if we start talking about loading trucks in the near future it will prompt the reasonable Iraqi’s to try to figure out how we do this without causing the country to spiral into a full blown civil war.

One other thing, Winston Churchill once said ‘The greatest lesson in life it to know that even fools are right sometimes.­’ What if this isn’t his time?

[forgivedontforget]

These quack-jobs have gave Iran the power they wanted. Get out and shut up!

[Adagio]

With all due respect to ambassador Crocker, six months ago he was saying 2012 was too precipitous. Then when he could only get the Iraqis to agree to the end of 2012, that became the "right" time frame. He was always good at supporting whatever line the Bush administration adopted. I'm glad Obama is sending his own envoy to get a fresh perspective.

[JohnFromCensornati]

A hasty departure of U.S. troops from Iraq could have happy consequences, including improving the US economic situation and improving US progress toward a functioning, moral, and reality-based society.