Plane that crashed near Buffalo was on autopilot

LARRY NEUMEISTER   02/15/09 08:24 PM ET   AP

Plane Into Home

BUFFALO, N.Y. — The commuter plane that crashed near Buffalo was on autopilot until just before it went down in icy weather, indicating that the pilot may have ignored federal safety recommendations and violated the airline's own policy for flying in such conditions, an investigator said Sunday.

Federal guidelines and the airline's own instructions suggest a pilot should not engage the autopilot when flying through ice. If the ice is severe, the company that operated Continental Flight 3407 requires pilots to shut off the autopilot.

"You may be able in a manual mode to sense something sooner than the autopilot can sense it," said Steve Chealander of the National Transportation Safety Board, which also recommends that pilots disengage the autopilot in icy conditions.

Automatic safety devices returned the aircraft to manual control just before it fell from the sky, Chealander said.

During a Sunday briefing, Chealander described the flight's frantic last moments, which included a steep drop and rollercoaster-like pitching and rolling.

Chealander said information from the plane's flight data recorder indicates that the plane pitched up at an angle of 31 degrees, then pitched down at 45 degrees.

The plane rolled to the left at 46 degrees, then snapped back to the right at 105 degrees _ 15 degrees beyond vertical.

Radar data shows Flight 3407 fell from 1,800 feet above sea level to 1,000 feet in five seconds, he said. Passengers and crew would have experienced G-forces up to twice as strong as on the ground.

The plane crashed belly first onto a house Thursday night, killing all 49 people on board and one person on the ground.

Just before they went down in a suburban neighborhood near the Buffalo airport, the pilots discussed "significant" ice buildup on their wings and windshield. Other aircraft in the area told air traffic controllers they also experienced icing around the same time.

The Dash 8 Q400 plane operated by Colgan Air was equipped with a "stick shaker" mechanism that rattles the yoke to warn the pilot if the plane is about to lose aerodynamic lift, a condition called a stall.

When the stick shaker engaged, it would have automatically turned off the autopilot, Chealander said.

Before that, the pilot switched on an anti-stall device that increases the speed of the plane by 20 knots and gives a pilot more margin to recover from a stall if it occurs.

Chealander said the plane's deicing system was turned on 11 minutes after it took off from Newark, N.J., and stayed on for the entire flight. Indicator lights showed the system appeared to be working.

He said the pilot was being "very conservative" by turning it on so soon.

Investigators who examined both engines said they appeared to be running normally at the time of the crash, too.

In a December safety alert issued by the NTSB, the agency said pilots in icy conditions should turn off or limit the use of the autopilot to better "feel" changes in the handling qualities of the airplane.

Still, Chealander was careful not to criticize the pilot.

"Everything that should have been done was done so we keep looking," he said. "We keep looking, trying to find out why this happened."

Colgan Air operates a fleet of 51 regional turboprops for Continental Connection, United Express and US Airways Express.

Chealander said Colgan, like most airlines, had begun following NTSB recommendations that pilots use deicing systems as soon as they enter conditions that might lead to icing.

Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Laura Brown said the agency advises pilots to disengage the autopilot when ice is accumulating, but the guidance is not mandatory.

She also said some planes are certified to be flown on autopilot in icing conditions because doing so "may actually keep the aircraft at a steadier speed and altitude than a pilot could flying it manually."

Brown said the agency considered making the guidance mandatory, but others in the aviation community argued against it, citing the capabilities of such advanced planes.

She did not know if the 74-seat Q400 Bombardier aircraft that crashed Thursday was certified to be on autopilot during icing conditions.

By Sunday, authorities had recovered the remains of at least 15 people from the wreckage as crews raced to finish their work before a storm arrives later in the week.

Recovery crews could need as much as four days to remove the remains from the site. Chealander described the efforts as an "excavation."

"Keep in mind, there's an airplane that fell on top of a house, and they're now intermingled," he said.

DNA and dental records will be used to identify the remains, he said.

"Whether we can identify everybody or not remains to be seen, but it will be weeks, the identification process," Erie County Health Commissioner Anthony Billittier said.

Once all the remains are recovered, the focus will turn to removing wreckage of the 74-seat aircraft from the neighborhood.

___

Associated Press writers William Kates, Ramit Plushnick-Masti, Carolyn Thompson and John Curran contributed to this report.

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07:42 AM on 02/16/2009
Oh my God! Just when I thought i'd seen all there was to see from all the extremist wackos on this site. Now THIS is a conspiracy too? Hey there was also a 9-11 widow on that flight. Maybe she was about to reveal the truth about the US government planning the whole thing. Maybe the pilots were carrying their research revealing who killed JFK. I bet Karl Rove was involved in this crash in some way!
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Norge
Rolf K. Artist, worker of metal, writer of poems
10:57 AM on 02/16/2009
If you want to read about extremist wackos and conspiracy, go to B. Madoff. There were about 30,000 people riding in his lear jet and it is reality today and not wackos fantasies.

Conspiracy thinkers are far and few between actually considering the size of the human population and sometimes they are correct in their connecting of the dots though often it is wishfull thinking.
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Norge
Rolf K. Artist, worker of metal, writer of poems
02:28 AM on 02/16/2009
If they were activated then obviously not on auto-pilot which is the first bit of miss-information
and on approach at 500ft. they would have used power on approach.
If they were compensating for ice, increased weight and reduced speed and raising the nose eventually would have perpetrated a stall though their warning sounder would have long before that moment activated and they would have lowered the nose. If not they would have stalled of course and spun in. If their engines had just stopped they would not just drop out of the sky as a stone and into a house. What happened to emergency landing procedures and possibility of sitting the plane down in a field or more preferable a road.
Perhaps, though there are so many variables and unknowns doubtfull the truth will ever be known.
02:35 AM on 02/16/2009
I'm a fan of Norge.
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08:04 PM on 02/16/2009
All reports have stated that the nose was raised suddenly. That would, under those conditions, precipitate a stall.
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Norge
Rolf K. Artist, worker of metal, writer of poems
03:53 PM on 02/17/2009
In years past I had been checked out in small single engine planes and learned in flight school never to jerk up fast. So I tend to doubt the reports which give such information.
11:55 PM on 02/15/2009
This accident was very unfortunate and we sympathize with the poor passengers and the people in the house that died. Dwelling on what happened, despite the insight, does not change what happened. I hope this does not turn into a finger pointing situation.
01:30 AM on 02/16/2009
I would hope that if there need be a finger pointing/bring justice kind of situation that the finger be real big and very strong. I would hope that if there does not need be a finger pointing situation that somebody would prove it and let the proof not be a lie.
11:48 PM on 02/15/2009
I hope this will put to bed, once and for all, the notion that this catastrophe was orchestrated --- and because of one particular passenger on that flight (who was a 'foe' of our previous president).

I've about had it with all this c_o_n s piracy nonsense.

How about devoting some of this energy to sympathy, or grief.
01:53 AM on 02/16/2009
Apparently I haven't been following this very closely, but Jes.us, there are people considering this an orchestrated conspiracy? That's pretty id.iotic.
02:08 AM on 02/16/2009
It would be lazy to come to conclusions without investigation. That includes you.
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08:05 PM on 02/16/2009
Highly id.iotic.
01:55 AM on 02/16/2009
Yes, the fact that so many people were lost makes it seem that they were not after the one. Very convenient. A nice way to muddle who they are after if this is the case. However, let us do the math. If there are 18,000 flights a day in this country and there has not been a f a t al c rash in 2 1/2 years, what would be the likelihood the only person who had a successful case against all of the power and money of the U.S. government for all this time about nine one one would be on the only f light to c rash? Then, take the chance that Mike C onell who has been implicated in the stealing of the 2004 election for Bush and the e r a s i n g of emails would be lost in a p lane c rash (also considering that his p lane had been t amp erred with more than once, and when he asked M uk a s e y for protection was denied) within two months of each other is a very interesting math problem. If you were to do the math, then you would find that the chances of winning the lottery would be higher. Combine this with the fact that the and tracks victims, except for the nurse, were all people who were investigating the event or other interesting details about Bush co. All evidence was thrown away.
08:20 AM on 02/16/2009
You have a good case with Mike Connell. It is possible that is was an accident, but given the previous tampering, I think it unlikely. Given the state of the art CVR and FDRs now, it is nearly impossible to sabotage a commercial aircraft and get away with it. The same is not true of private aircraft. The problem with such sabotage is that it requires just the right circumstances to succeed. Most of the time it will not, and such tampering WILL be caught if it fails.
When JKF Jr went down, I knew exactly what had happened. It is called the graveyard spiral. It was his lack of an instrument license and his inexperience that killed him. The FACT is that in those conditions he was effectively flying only by his instruments since he had NO outside visual references. When he reached down to change fuel tanks as is called for in the before landing checklist, he still had his hand on the controls. As he leaned down, his hand pulled the plane into a steep bank without his knowing it. When he looked back up, his instruments told him the truth, but his HEAD told him he was straight and level. I have personally experienced the same thing. It REALLY messed my head up, and I did what I was trained to do. It was so bad though, that I asked the other pilot with me to take control, while I reset my internal gyros.
11:18 PM on 02/15/2009
Please remember that 50 people died. Can you imagine the horror that they experienced? I get it though, speculating like this detaches one from focusing on the terrible aspects of the crash itself. On occasion, I've imagined what it must have been like... and, no, I'm not afraid to fly.

By hypothesizing on possible errors and weather scenarios, it makes us think that this would not happen again because pilots/airlines would learn from this and not let it happen again, but this presupposes that all that has been said about the cause is true.

It's human nature to want to control our circumstances or at least know the answers to why things happen, but one will never really know for sure what happened to that plane. All we do know is that that crew and passengers spent the last minutes of their lives most likely in mortal fear that can't even be contemplated. The man on the ground had no idea of his fate. Perhaps lucky in comparison.
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Neither big nor limited, effective.
11:17 PM on 02/15/2009
eMJayy:
I am a retired Test Engineer and was very impressed by your 3-part presentation of the NASA icing research. I worked for a contractor that used the Icing Research Tunnel at the NASA Lewis Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio to conduct tests on a de-icing system for a research aircraft during the 80s.
Viewing that footage brought back memories of how exciting, interesting, and important working in the research and development field for 40 years really was.
10:25 PM on 02/15/2009
God bless them.
10:15 PM on 02/15/2009
The rule in flying is that if you do something such as extending the gear or flaps, and you don't like what happens, UNDO what you just did. That will give you some time to figure out what happened.
10:27 PM on 02/15/2009
You seem knowlegable and unbiased. I would like to know to know what you think of this article.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/07/obama-plane-forced-to-mak_n_111211.html

I also want to know if you would like to see my statistical analysis about the chances of two very important Bush foes to go down in p lane accidents in two months?
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Carolab
Walking an 87-year-old in the sand isn't easy
10:40 PM on 02/15/2009
babymonster--didn't get your e-mail yet!
12:26 AM on 02/16/2009
Given the fact that there are at least 50 MILLION Bush haters in the USA, including myself, it is guite likely that on any day, there will be at least two or more such folks dying every day from assorted causes.The problem now is that if any sabotage is done nowadays, it is rather easy to catch the fact given the state of the art of CVRs and FDRs. In the old days I have no doubt that you could get away with some funny business. The slide that deployed on the MD-80 is something that is rarely inspected except at long intervals, and I was quite surprised that it caused any kind of problem.

I talked with a pilot who worked with me and he personally knew the captain of the Wellstone flight. That was a true accident since the captain of that flight had been working all night at his real job and was probably asleep or groggy and did not monitor the F/O who was flying that leg. The F/O was inexperienced and had flown with a bad captain for most of his flight time. This was the first flight with this captain. The bad captain had a very bad habit of overriding the F/O and controlling the throttles on an approach. The new guy did not know that or increase power, and did not monitor the guy. So they simply ran out of airspeed with the captain asleep, stalled and crashed.
10:06 PM on 02/15/2009
Skyknight, you are right about the horizontal stab, it is an inverted planeform to produce a downward lift on the tail. In ice that downward force is degraded as the wing shape is degraded by the ice. Thus, the plane is trimmed more nose up by the autopilot. The incident started as the F/O selected landing flaps. This gives a nose up pitching moment and if the plane is trimmed full nose up as it possibly was, the autopilot could not retrim the plane quickly enough to keep the plane level, thus the 31 degree pitch up. At that point the airspeed would decrease extremely rapidly, far more than normal, the stick shaker would activate kicking off the autopilot, the stick PUSHER would activate driving the nose down. The captain must have grabbed the controls, and added to the pitch down command. The plane was stalled at some point, and as the plane fell off to the left, he overcompensated to the right. This is a low time pilot with probably no aerobatic experience or upset training. He overcompensated on the roll past vertical so that when he pulled back on the yoke to get or keep the nose up, it had the OPPOSITE effect of pulling the nose DOWN. He probably saw the ground just before he hit, and got it level with the nose level, but just because the nose is up does NOT mean you will overcome the inertia and be going up.
10:21 PM on 02/15/2009
That makes more sense than anything I've seen or heard since the accident occured. Thanks.
10:38 PM on 02/15/2009
You may very well be right about how it happened in that way, but if it were not an accident, wouldn't there have to be some thing that could be made to t rigger that?
09:59 PM on 02/15/2009
For each person...may they rest in peace and to those who loved and knew them, may they be comforted in beautiful memories of their loved ones. Its so hard to think that after such a beautiful story story on the Hudson that now grief forms a different story.
09:49 PM on 02/15/2009
Clarify, please. What did Eckert supposedly know that made her so dangerous to Bush? I am not doubting - or agreeing - just curious.
10:13 PM on 02/15/2009
She wanted things to be properly investigated and she even may have believed that it was an inside job. Would you like to know why people believe that it was?
10:15 PM on 02/15/2009
Ummm, actually no, but I have a feeling you're going to tell us all about it regardless.
10:26 PM on 02/15/2009
Yes. Color me curious.
09:38 PM on 02/15/2009
This was obviously pilot error. How dull do you have to be to not realize your about to stall? Journalists need to get a clue and realize what it means when the black box says the stick was pulled back 31 to degrees. PILOT PANIC! Duh! and when your about to stall you dont pull back you push forward and force a dive to get more air speed over the wings. Geez, flying 101 people, get with it. Why do they keep acting like this wasnt pilot error? So rich investors have time to bail before the general public does?
09:41 PM on 02/15/2009
What happened to babymonster...did s/he run out of rap?
09:45 PM on 02/15/2009
We'll see if you are correct.
09:17 PM on 02/15/2009
Babymonster-- I'd say your name suits you. Aside from the reprehensible nature of your allegations, your logic is flawed. Anyone can take two unlikely events of any kind, mathematically combine the odds and conclude that the chance of both occurring is statistically so remote that one or both occurrences must have been planned. That sort of logic is called a vicious circle.
09:47 PM on 02/15/2009
No, it is not. It is used to put nurses in jail all the time. Pure statistics. I'm sorry to say that you are a failing of the American Educational system.
10:38 PM on 02/15/2009
put nurses in jail--???----what---????
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mairs
03:19 AM on 02/16/2009
Well said, babymonster. All of it.
08:43 PM on 02/15/2009
I have no idea what went wrong, but what a terrifying way to lose ones life. Those poor people. I can only hope they are in a better place.
08:46 PM on 02/15/2009
thank - YOU !
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SonyaInTx
Money doesn't buy class.....
08:47 PM on 02/15/2009
I can only hope that death was quick. I get chills thinking that those people burned alive after slamming to the ground.
09:38 PM on 02/15/2009
Me too.
08:41 PM on 02/15/2009
so the plane is on " auto-pilot " and they stopped talking to the control tower for a good amount of time before the crash---no may-day signal---w.tf